Virginia faces Bucknell on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Virginia as the clear favourite, assigning it a 99% chance of winning largely because the Cavaliers have gone 3-0 this season, averaging 92.3 points while allowing only 68.0, and sit 65th in the league, whereas Bucknell has gone 0-2, scoring 64.5 and conceding 89.0, and is 364th. Virginia's home record is 3-0, with a 92.3 points per game and 68.0 allowed, and they have won four of their last five games, including 91-72 over Arkansas, 97-72 over Northeastern, and 89-60 over Drexel. Bucknell's road record is 0-1, with 67.0 points scored and 96.0 allowed, and they have won only one of their last five, losing to Old Dominion, Maryland and Navy. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 93-61 score, a total of 153.8, and gives Virginia a 99% probability of covering the spread, with a 1% chance for Bucknell to win. The game is expected to stay within the projected points, with no overtime anticipated.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Virginia winWon
99.4%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bucknell winLost
0.6%fair 164.08
Best odds51.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
67.5%
@ 1.68+7.4pp
Under 146.5
32.5%
@ 2.60-7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.68
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.10
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
55.6%
@ 1.91+5.8pp
Under 151.5
44.4%
@ 1.90-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
43.2%
@ 2.60+7.4pp
Under 156.5
56.8%
@ 1.45-7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Virginia total 89Actual: Virginia over 89
Over 89
65.4%
Under 89
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virginia total 93 · main lineActual: Virginia over 93
Over 93
49.0%
@ 1.85-1.3pp
Under 93
51.0%
@ 1.87+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Virginia total 97Actual: Virginia under 97
Over 97
32.8%
Under 97
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bucknell total 51.5Actual: Bucknell over 51.5
Over 51.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
Under 51.5
no forecast
@ 3.20
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.67
Bucknell total 56 · main lineActual: Bucknell over 56
Over 56
69.9%
@ 1.85+19.6pp
Under 56
30.1%
@ 1.87-19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bucknell total 60Actual: Bucknell over 60
Over 60
54.1%
Under 60
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Virginia -41Actual: Bucknell +41
VIRG -41
no forecast
@ 2.10
BUCK +41
no forecast
@ 1.71
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Bet365
2.10
BUCK
Bet365
1.71
Spread Virginia -38 · main lineActual: Bucknell +38
VIRG -38
no forecast
@ 1.92
BUCK +38
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.74
BUCK
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Virginia -35Actual: Bucknell +35
VIRG -35
no forecast
@ 1.52
BUCK +35
no forecast
@ 2.40
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Bet365
1.52
BUCK
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
VirginiaBucknell
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Virginia win
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 1.02
BUCK win
no forecast
@ 15.50
2nd half Spread Virginia -17.5 · main lineActual: Bucknell +17.5
VIRG -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
BUCK +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Virginia 2nd half total 46.5 · main lineActual: Virginia under 46.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Bucknell 2nd half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Bucknell under 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Virginia -16.5Actual: Bucknell +16.5
VIRG -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
BUCK +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Spread Virginia -15.5Actual: Bucknell +15.5
VIRG -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
BUCK +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Virginia (regulation)
VIRG
no forecast
@ 1.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 35.00
BUCK
no forecast
@ 14.50
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Bucknell over 55
73.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Bucknell over 55.5
71.0%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+19.0pp
Won
Bucknell over 54.5
74.3%
1.69
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Bucknell over 53.5
77.4%
1.52
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Over 142
77.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Virginia under 98.5
71.9%
1.45
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.32
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Virginia under 99.5
75.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Over 141
79.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Over 142.5
75.9%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Over 138.5
83.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Over 144.5
71.8%
1.43
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Over 143.5
73.9%
1.38
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Over 141.5
77.8%
1.29
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Over 143
75.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Over 128.5
94.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Virginia over 73.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Over 123.5
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Virginia over 72.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
89.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 145
71.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 140.5
79.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Over 144
73.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Over 125.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 130.5
92.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Virginia over 74.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 126.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Virginia over 76.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Virginia over 77.5
93.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Virginia over 75.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 135.5
87.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Virginia over 78.5
92.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Virginia over 79.5
90.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
85.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Virginia over 80.5
89.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Virginia over 81.5
87.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Under 176.5
92.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Under 175.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Virginia over 82.5
85.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Virginia over 83.5
82.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
86.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Virginia over 84.5
79.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Virginia over 85.5
76.9%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Virginia -17.5
89.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Under 173.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 170.5
85.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Virginia over 87.5
70.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Virginia over 86.5
73.7%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Virginia -19.5
85.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Under 166.5
78.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Under 168.5
82.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Bucknell under 71.5
85.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Under 165.5
76.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Virginia -22.5
79.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Bucknell under 70.5
83.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Bucknell under 69.5
80.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Under 163.5
72.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.7pp
Won
Bucknell under 68.5
77.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.1pp
Won
Bucknell under 67.5
74.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Virginia -24.5
74.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.7pp
Won
Bucknell under 66.5
71.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-15.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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