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Virginia vs Northwestern Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 21 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 83-78
40-36 43-42
Position#19
Record4-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game83.4
Allowed / game70.4
vs
Position#251
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game60.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Northwestern winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#87
W
83-75
83
75
+8
A27/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
58-71
58
71
-13
H01/03
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H05/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
L
70-84
70
84
-14
A09/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
87-53
87
53
+34
H04/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
81-62
81
62
+19
H08/11
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
91-53
91
53
+38
H12/11
NCAA
VMI
#364
L
54-106
54
106
-52
A12/11
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
104-78
104
78
+26
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-33
39-42
32-27
26-44
27-28
33-29
26-43
44-41
25-25
35-41
42-32
45-21
42-25
39-37
47-19
44-34
35-40
19-66
61-33
43-45
145.3Avg total
74.8Scored
70.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)83.470.4153.8+13.080%
Season at home (4)90.861.5152.2+29.2100%
Season away (1)54.0106.0160.0-52.00%
Last 10 (10)74.870.5145.3+4.360%
Last 5 (5)83.470.4153.8+13.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)63.272.6135.8-9.417%
vs Similar (12)66.565.3131.8+1.258%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)83.270.5153.7+12.783%
This opponent (Northwestern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NorthwesternUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#226
W
75-63
75
63
+12
A26/02
NCAA
Iowa
#192
W
68-57
68
57
+11
H01/03
NCAA
UCLA
#66
L
69-73
69
73
-4
H04/03
NCAA
Maryland
#35
L
61-74
61
74
-13
A08/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#226
W
72-64
72
64
+8
A12/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#43
L
63-70
63
70
-7
A13/03
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
W
70-47
70
47
+23
H04/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
76-52
76
52
+24
H07/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H11/11
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
81-79
81
79
+2
A15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-31
39-32
30-26
38-31
35-34
34-39
29-32
32-42
32-29
40-35
30-37
33-33
36-25
34-22
45-26
31-26
53-28
57-35
42-44
39-35
138.7Avg total
74.5Scored
64.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)84.260.2144.5+24.0100%
Season at home (3)85.354.0139.3+31.3100%
Season away (1)81.079.0160.0+2.0100%
Last 10 (10)74.564.2138.7+10.370%
Last 5 (5)80.062.2142.2+17.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)68.874.1142.9-5.425%
vs Similar (17)73.568.3141.8+5.259%
vs Weaker (5)82.466.0148.4+16.480%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +7.6+7.61st half: +5.6+5.62nd half2nd half: -3.3-3.32nd half: +4.7+4.7
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +7.6+7.61st half: +5.6+5.62nd half2nd half: -3.3-3.32nd half: +4.7+4.7
VirginiaNorthwestern
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#87
W
44-33
44
33
+11
A27/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H01/03
NCAA
Florida State
#177
L
27-28
27
28
-1
H05/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
L
26-43
26
43
-17
A09/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
D
25-25
25
25
+0
A12/03
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H04/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
42-25
42
25
+17
H08/11
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H12/11
NCAA
VMI
#364
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A12/11
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
61-33
61
33
+28
H15/11
NCAA
68.6Avg total
38.1Scored
30.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.732.165.8+1.743%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.230.164.2+4.153%-
Last 30 away (13)33.234.767.8-1.531%-
Last 10 (10)38.130.568.6+7.660%-
Last 5 (5)45.429.875.2+15.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)31.333.064.3-1.733%-
vs Similar (12)30.832.363.1-1.633%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)44.529.774.2+14.883%-
This opponent (Northwestern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NorthwesternLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#226
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Iowa
#192
W
30-26
30
26
+4
H01/03
NCAA
UCLA
#66
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H04/03
NCAA
Maryland
#35
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A08/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#226
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A12/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#43
L
30-37
30
37
-7
A13/03
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H07/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
53-28
53
28
+25
H11/11
NCAA
DePaul
#213
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A15/11
NCAA
68.0Avg total
36.8Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.532.865.3-0.357%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.530.464.9+4.175%-
Last 30 away (14)30.235.465.6-5.236%-
Last 10 (10)36.831.268.0+5.670%-
Last 5 (5)41.232.073.2+9.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)29.535.264.8-5.838%-
vs Similar (17)32.432.264.6+0.259%-
vs Weaker (5)37.630.868.4+6.880%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Virginia wins
0
Northwestern wins
No previous meetings.
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/25HMarshall104-78
12/11/25AVMI54-106
12/11/25HHampton91-53
08/11/25HN. Carolina Central81-62
04/11/25HRider87-53
12/03/25AGeorgia Tech60-66
09/03/25ASyracuse70-84
05/03/25HFlorida State60-57
01/03/25HClemson58-71
27/02/25AWake Forest83-75
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/25ADePaul81-79
11/11/25HCleveland State110-63
07/11/25HBoston University76-52
04/11/25HMercyhurst Lakers70-47
13/03/25AWisconsin63-70
12/03/25AMinnesota72-64
08/03/25AMaryland61-74
04/03/25HUCLA69-73
01/03/25HIowa68-57
26/02/25AMinnesota75-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games541
Win %80%100%0%
Points / game83.490.854.0
Allowed / game70.461.5106.0
Point differential+13.0+29.2-52.0
Avg total153.8152.2160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Northwestern
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game84.285.381.0
Allowed / game60.254.079.0
Point differential+24.0+31.3+2.0
Avg total144.5139.3160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke550100%92.460.2+32.2
2 Louisville440100%103.071.0+32.0
3 NC State440100%100.869.8+31.0
4 Syracuse440100%81.553.2+28.2
5 North Carolina550100%88.063.2+24.8
6 Virginia Tech550100%92.272.8+19.4
7 SMU Mustangs550100%92.074.0+18.0
8 Stanford440100%87.570.2+17.2
9 Clemson54180%84.658.6+26.0
10 Miami (FL)54180%91.269.0+22.2
11 Notre Dame54180%83.667.6+16.0
12 California54180%84.069.6+14.4
13 Virginia54180%83.470.4+13.0
14 Georgia Tech54180%71.063.0+8.0
15 Florida State43175%93.072.8+20.2
16 Pittsburgh64267%71.763.8+7.8
17 Wake Forest53260%89.076.6+12.4
18 Boston College63350%66.862.0+4.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Iowa550100%90.262.6+27.6
2 Indiana550100%88.262.4+25.8
3 Northwestern440100%84.260.2+24.0
4 USC440100%100.580.0+20.5
5 Nebraska550100%88.068.0+20.0
6 Ohio State550100%88.468.8+19.6
7 Michigan440100%89.871.5+18.2
8 Penn State550100%82.066.2+15.8
9 Rutgers440100%79.264.0+15.2
10 Purdue550100%86.671.6+15.0
11 Michigan State440100%77.865.2+12.5
12 Oregon440100%74.266.5+7.8
13 Illinois54180%95.471.4+24.0
14 Wisconsin54180%88.671.6+17.0
15 Minnesota54180%76.062.4+13.6
16 Washington54180%85.472.0+13.4
17 UCLA54180%76.263.2+13.0
18 Maryland54180%82.273.4+8.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia404383
Northwestern364278
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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