PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Virginia faces Old Dominion on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Cavaliers at 96% versus 4% for the Monarchs, a result driven by Virginia's 4-0 record, 93.0 points per game and 66.2 allowed per game, placing them 38th in the league, while Old Dominion also sits 4-0 with 76.2 points per game and 54.5 allowed per game, 57th. At home, Virginia has gone 4-0, scoring 93.0 and conceding 66.2, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one, with recent victories over Bucknell 95-61, Arkansas 91-72 and Northeastern 97-72. On the road, Old Dominion is 2-0, averaging 76.5 points and allowing 61.0, and in their last five they have also won four and lost one, with wins over Norfolk State 71-60, Bucknell 82-62 and a home win at Regent University 91-47. The projected score is 86-65 for Virginia, a total of 151.0 points, with a 1% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 93.0 | 66.2 | 159.2 | +26.8 | 100% |
| Season at home (4) | 93.0 | 66.2 | 159.2 | +26.8 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 83.7 | 69.9 | 153.6 | +13.8 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 88.8 | 68.8 | 157.6 | +20.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 60.5 | 75.5 | 136.0 | -15.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (10) | 79.0 | 70.9 | 149.9 | +8.1 | 80% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 82.6 | 67.1 | 149.7 | +15.4 | 94% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 76.2 | 54.5 | 130.8 | +21.8 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 76.0 | 48.0 | 124.0 | +28.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 76.5 | 61.0 | 137.5 | +15.5 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.9 | 71.4 | 152.3 | +9.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.8 | 61.2 | 139.0 | +16.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 74.5 | 82.1 | 156.5 | -7.6 | 18% |
| vs Similar (12) | 76.9 | 73.6 | 150.5 | +3.3 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (7) | 78.7 | 68.4 | 147.1 | +10.3 | 71% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.6 | 30.7 | 68.3 | +6.9 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 38.9 | 29.6 | 68.5 | +9.3 | 84% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 35.4 | 32.6 | 68.0 | +2.7 | 45% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.5 | 31.3 | 71.8 | +9.2 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.8 | 30.4 | 74.2 | +13.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 31.0 | 39.5 | 70.5 | -8.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 36.6 | 31.0 | 67.6 | +5.6 | 70% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 38.9 | 29.6 | 68.4 | +9.3 | 78% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.3 | 33.8 | 69.1 | +1.6 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 35.5 | 31.9 | 67.4 | +3.5 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 35.2 | 35.2 | 70.4 | +0.1 | 53% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.9 | 33.0 | 71.9 | +5.9 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 26.2 | 63.0 | +10.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 34.5 | 36.3 | 70.8 | -1.7 | 36% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 36.6 | 33.2 | 69.8 | +3.3 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (7) | 34.4 | 30.7 | 65.1 | +3.7 | 71% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Bucknell | 95-61 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Arkansas | 91-72 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Northeastern | 97-72 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Drexel | 89-60 |
| 22/03/26 | H | Tennessee | 72-79 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Wright State | 82-73 |
| 15/03/26 | A | Duke | 70-74 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Miami (FL) | 84-62 |
| 12/03/26 | H | NC State | 81-74 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Virginia Tech | 76-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Norfolk State | 71-60 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Bucknell | 82-62 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Regent University | 91-47 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Western Michigan | 61-49 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Georgia Southern | 84-88 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 87-80 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Georgia State | 81-73 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Marshall | 88-97 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Southern Miss | 81-86 |
| 16/02/26 | H | Louisiana Lafayette | 83-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 93.0 | 93.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 66.2 | 66.2 | - |
| Point differential | +26.8 | +26.8 | - |
| Avg total | 159.2 | 159.2 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | WW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 76.2 | 76.0 | 76.5 |
| Allowed / game | 54.5 | 48.0 | 61.0 |
| Point differential | +21.8 | +28.0 | +15.5 |
| Avg total | 130.8 | 124.0 | 137.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 | Virginia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 3 |  SMU Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.7 | 68.3 | +24.3 |
| 4 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.3 | 69.7 | +22.7 |
| 7 |  NC State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 64.7 | +21.0 |
| 9 |  North Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 68.3 | +20.0 |
| 10 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 11 |  Stanford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 67.0 | +15.0 |
| 12 |  Clemson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 74.0 | +12.3 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Duke | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 60.3 | +29.7 |
| 15 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 16 |  Miami (FL) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 79.7 | 61.7 | +18.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 87.0 | -9.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.3 | 62.0 | +29.3 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.2 | 54.5 | +21.8 |
| 3 |  Southern Miss | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.3 | 66.0 | +8.3 |
| 4 |  Coastal Carolina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.5 | 73.5 | -1.0 |
| 5 |  Appalachian State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 60.3 | +9.7 |
| 6 |  Marshall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 76.7 | +4.0 |
| 7 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 8 |  Georgia Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.3 | 82.3 | -2.0 |
| 9 |  James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 |  South Alabama | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 80.7 | -4.3 |
| 11 |  Troy | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 77.0 | -9.7 |
| 12 |  Arkansas State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.0 | 84.3 | -10.3 |
| 13 |  Georgia State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 14 |  Louisiana Monroe | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 86.5 | -2.5 |
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