VMI will host N. Carolina Central on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates VMI as the clear favourite, assigning a 79% probability of victory largely because the team has a 1-2 record, averages 84.3 points per game and allows 82.7, while N. Carolina Central sits at 0-2, scores 68.5 and concedes 79.0. VMI has won its only home game 115-83 against Virginia-Lynchburg, and has lost two of its last five outings, including a 68-70 defeat to UTSA and a 70-95 loss to SMU, whereas N. Carolina Central's two road losses were 75-80 to Longwood and 62-78 to Georgia, with a 63-70 loss to Howard in March. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 80-71 score, a total of 150.2 points, and gives VMI a 58% chance to cover the home line of -7.0; the over on the 151.5 line has a 46% probability, and the game has a 4% chance of overtime. The model's favourite remains VMI, whose recent home performance and higher scoring average give it the edge.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
VMI winWon
78.7%fair 1.27
Best odds1.27
Implied76.5%
Edge+2.2pp
N. Carolina Central winLost
21.3%fair 4.69
Best odds4.11
Implied23.5%
Edge-2.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (VMI) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143.5Actual: Under 143.5
Over 143.5
65.5%
@ 1.50-1.5pp
Under 143.5
34.5%
@ 3.35+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.35
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 148.5 · main lineActual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
53.6%
@ 1.93+4.3pp
Under 148.5
46.4%
@ 1.90-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
41.5%
@ 2.45+0.0pp
Under 153.5
58.5%
@ 1.71-0.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Be
1.68
Betano
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
VMI total 75Actual: VMI under 75
Over 75
68.4%
Under 75
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VMI total 79 · main lineActual: VMI under 79
Over 79
52.6%
@ 1.85+2.6pp
Under 79
47.4%
@ 1.85-2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
VMI total 83Actual: VMI under 83
Over 83
36.3%
Under 83
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
N. Carolina Central total 68Actual: N. Carolina Central under 68
Over 68
59.9%
Under 68
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
N. Carolina Central total 72 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central under 72
Over 72
43.7%
@ 1.85-6.5pp
Under 72
56.3%
@ 1.87+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
N. Carolina Central total 76Actual: N. Carolina Central under 76
Over 76
28.9%
Under 76
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread VMI -11.5Actual: VMI -11.5
VMI -11.5
41.1%
@ 2.60+2.9pp
N. C +11.5
58.9%
@ 1.55-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
VMI
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.27
N. C
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.45
Spread VMI -8.5 · main lineActual: VMI -8.5
VMI -8.5
52.0%
@ 1.97+3.2pp
N. C +8.5
48.0%
@ 1.88-3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
VMI
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.85
N. C
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Spread VMI -5.5Actual: VMI -5.5
VMI -5.5
63.0%
@ 1.73+7.7pp
N. C +5.5
37.0%
@ 2.27-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
VMI
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.70
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.55
N. C
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Be
1.87
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
VMIN. Carolina Central
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
VMI -2
75.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
VMI -1
78.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
VMI -3
72.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
VMI (regulation)
76.4%
1.28
Marathon Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
VMI -1.5
76.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
VMI -3.5
70.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
N. Carolina Central under 77.5
75.2%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
VMI +2.5
83.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
VMI -2.5
73.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
VMI over 73.5
73.0%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
VMI +12.5
96.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
VMI +1.5
80.6%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
VMI +1
80.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
VMI +7.5
91.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
VMI +11.5
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
VMI under 96.5
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
VMI under 98.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
VMI under 99.5
97.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 159
71.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
VMI under 94.5
93.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
94.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
N. Carolina Central under 79.5
80.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
N. Carolina Central under 76.5
72.1%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
VMI +6.5
90.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 53.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
VMI under 89.5
83.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
VMI over 70.5
81.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 55.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
VMI win
78.7%
1.25
Marathon Bet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+2.2pp
Won
VMI under 92.5
90.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 123.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 54.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Lost
Under 171.5
90.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
VMI under 88.5
81.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 166.5
84.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 161.5
75.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Over 124.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Under 174.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
VMI under 90.5
86.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Over 128.5
90.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 57.5
90.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 56.5
91.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central +23.5
89.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
VMI over 72.5
76.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Lost
VMI under 86.5
75.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 173.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 59.5
86.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Lost
Over 126.5
92.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
Over 138.5
76.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 61.5
81.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central +22.5
88.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
N. Carolina Central +18.5
80.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
84.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 58.5
88.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 63.5
75.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Lost
Under 169.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 139.5
74.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central +15.5
71.9%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 60.5
83.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central +17.5
77.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 134.5
83.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central over 62.5
78.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
Under 168.5
86.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 131.5
87.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Lost
Under 164.5
81.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 64.5
72.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Lost
Under 159.5
71.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
N. Carolina Central +15
71.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 163.5
79.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Over 136.5
79.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Lost
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.