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Wake Forest vs Western Carolina Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 82-70
Projected total 152.1
Scheduled
Position#114
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game62.8
Vs
85%
15%
■ WAKE 85%■ WEST 15%
Pythia win probability
Position#189
Record2-2
FormLLWWL
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game74.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Wake Forest v Western Carolina
21 Nov 2026
WAKE v WEST
upcoming
19 Nov 2024
WAKE82
WEST69
12 Nov 2021
WAKE87
WEST75
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Wake Forest host Western Carolina in the NCAA. Pythia makes Wake Forest the favourite at 85% and projects 82-70, about 152 points in all. Overtime chance: 3%. Wake Forest are 3-1 this season (76.2 scored, 62.8 allowed a game), form LWLWW; Western Carolina are 2-2 this season (89.8 scored, 74.5 allowed a game), form LLWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Wake Forest win
85.2%fair 1.17
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Western Carolina win
14.8%fair 6.74
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Wake ForestUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
L
67-68
67
68
-1
A25/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-83
88
83
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A04/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
80-73
80
73
+7
H07/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
95-89 OT
95
89
+6
A10/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
62-71
62
71
-9
A12/03
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#339
W
83-62
83
62
+21
H03/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#14
L
51-74
51
74
-23
A05/11
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#217
W
82-64
82
64
+18
H11/11
NCAA
Southern Utah
#172
W
89-51
89
51
+38
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-22
38-46
42-46
46-37
24-32
46-43
29-37
51-36
38-34
37-41
23-41
39-30
40-33
43-29
27-39
24-35
38-22
44-42
46-28
43-23
147.7Avg total
76.7Scored
71.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)76.262.8139.0+13.575%
Season at home (3)84.759.0143.7+25.7100%
Season away (1)51.074.0125.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)76.771.0147.7+5.760%
Last 5 (5)73.464.4137.8+9.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)72.980.7153.6-7.815%
vs Similar ◀ (12)78.875.8154.5+3.075%
vs Weaker (5)80.266.8147.0+13.480%
This opponent (Western Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Western CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC Greensboro
#252
W
91-77
91
77
+14
H19/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
W
81-62
81
62
+19
A21/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
78-74
78
74
+4
H26/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
W
86-67
86
67
+19
H28/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
77-73
77
73
+4
A08/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
67-69
67
69
-2
A08/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#116
L
72-80
72
80
-8
A03/11
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#256
W
83-75
83
75
+8
A07/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
136-68
136
68
+68
H11/11
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
L
68-75
68
75
-7
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
45-36
46-41
38-30
43-32
33-32
45-42
37-30
49-37
36-35
41-38
38-24
29-45
30-39
42-41
44-40
39-35
75-27
61-41
38-30
30-45
155.9Avg total
83.9Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.874.5164.2+15.250%
Season at home (2)102.071.5173.5+30.550%
Season away (2)77.577.5155.0+0.050%
Last 10 (10)83.972.0155.9+11.970%
Last 5 (5)85.273.4158.6+11.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)78.180.9159.0-2.860%
vs Similar ◀ (12)74.882.2157.1-7.417%
vs Weaker (8)93.066.0159.0+27.075%
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
64.5%
Under 146
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
52.3%
Under 151
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
39.9%
Under 156
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Wake Forest total 80.5
Over 80.5
56.0%
Under 80.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wake Forest total 84.5
Over 84.5
40.1%
Under 84.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wake Forest total 88.5
Over 88.5
25.6%
Under 88.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Carolina total 62
Over 62
79.4%
Under 62
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Carolina total 66
Over 66
65.8%
Under 66
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Carolina total 70
Over 70
49.8%
Under 70
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Wake Forest -3
WAKE -3
80.1%
WEST +3
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
WAKE
No market prices yet.
WEST
No market prices yet.
Spread Wake Forest 0
WAKE 0
85.2%
WEST 0
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
WAKE
No market prices yet.
WEST
No market prices yet.
Spread Wake Forest +3
WAKE +3
89.8%
WEST -3
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
WAKE
No market prices yet.
WEST
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +0.2+0.21st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: +2.8+2.8
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +0.2+0.21st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: +2.8+2.8
Wake ForestWestern Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Wake ForestLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
29-22
29
22
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H28/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
24-32
24
32
-8
A04/03
NCAA
California
#79
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H07/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A10/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
23-41
23
41
-18
A12/03
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#339
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H03/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#14
L
27-39
27
39
-12
A05/11
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#217
W
38-22
38
22
+16
H11/11
NCAA
Southern Utah
#172
W
46-28
46
28
+18
H14/11
NCAA
67.0Avg total
33.6Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.437.472.8-2.037%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.238.476.6-0.241%-
Last 30 away (13)31.836.167.8-4.331%-
Last 10 (10)33.633.467.0+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)34.832.667.4+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)34.040.774.7-6.715%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)35.936.672.5-0.733%-
vs Weaker (5)37.830.868.6+7.0100%-
This opponent (Western Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Western CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC Greensboro
#252
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H19/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
W
38-30
38
30
+8
A21/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A08/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-24
38
24
+14
A08/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#116
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A03/11
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#256
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A07/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
75-27
75
27
+48
H11/11
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H15/11
NCAA
73.7Avg total
41.4Scored
32.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.735.975.6+3.863%-
Last 30 at home (12)43.933.177.0+10.883%-
Last 30 away (18)36.937.774.6-0.850%-
Last 10 (10)41.432.373.7+9.190%-
Last 5 (5)45.032.077.0+13.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)37.436.173.5+1.370%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)36.138.874.8-2.733%-
vs Weaker (8)48.031.279.2+16.8100%-
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Wake Forest wins
0
Western Carolina wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouthern Utah89-51
11/11/26HCharleston Southern82-64
05/11/26AVanderbilt51-74
03/11/26HMd.-East. Shore83-62
12/03/26AClemson62-71
10/03/26AVirginia Tech95-89 OT
07/03/26HCalifornia80-73
04/03/26AVirginia70-75
28/02/26HSyracuse88-83
25/02/26ABoston College67-68
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HLipscomb68-75
11/11/26HVirginia-Lynchburg136-68
07/11/26AUNC Asheville83-75
03/11/26ANorth Carolina72-80
08/03/26AEast Tennessee St67-69
08/03/26AMercer77-73
28/02/26HFurman86-67
26/02/26HMercer78-74
21/02/26AVMI81-62
19/02/26HNC Greensboro91-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Wake Forest
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game76.284.751.0
Allowed / game62.859.074.0
Point differential+13.5+25.7-23.0
Avg total139.0143.7125.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Western Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWL50%
HomeWL50%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game89.8102.077.5
Allowed / game74.571.577.5
Point differential+15.2+30.5+0.0
Avg total164.2173.5155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
2 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
3 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
4 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
5 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
6 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
7 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
8 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
9 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
10 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
11 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
12 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
13 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
14 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
15 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Louisville32167%89.775.0+14.7
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Furman54180%88.068.8+19.2
2 Citadel43175%90.064.5+25.5
3 VMI53260%77.870.4+7.4
4 Western Carolina42250%89.874.5+15.2
5 NC Greensboro42250%81.070.8+10.2
6 Chattanooga Mocs42250%84.279.5+4.8
7 Wofford52340%82.482.0+0.4
8 Mercer52340%78.280.6-2.4
9 Samford31233%77.378.7-1.3
10 East Tennessee St31233%65.368.3-3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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