The NCAA matchup on 14 November 2026 pits Wichita State against Austin Peay, with the model favouring Wichita State at 81% due to their higher points per game of 92.7 versus Austin Peay's 86.7 and a superior points allowed per game of 73.3 compared to 65.7, reflecting a stronger offensive output and defensive resilience that the model weighs heavily. Wichita State's season record stands at 2-1, with an identical 2-1 record at home, averaging 92.7 points scored and 73.3 allowed, while Austin Peay also sits at 2-1 overall, 86.7 points scored and 65.7 allowed, and has a road record of 0-1 with 69.0 points scored and 71.0 allowed. Wichita State's last five games include a 113-60 win over Friends University, an 86-93 loss to USC, and a 79-67 victory over CS Northridge, whereas Austin Peay's recent slate features an 82-61 win at Livingstone, a 69-71 loss to Kennesaw State away, and a 109-65 win over Lane College. The model projects a 79-69 score, with a total of 148.8 points, and assigns Wichita State a 41% chance to cover the home line of -12.5 while the over on the 153.5 line has a 38% probability; the game has a 4% chance of overtime. Wichita State's dominant scoring margin and defensive efficiency suggest they will likely maintain their advantage in this encounter.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wichita State winWon
81.2%fair 1.23
Best odds1.12
Implied86.8%
Edge-5.5pp
Austin Peay winLost
18.8%fair 5.33
Best odds7.27
Implied13.2%
Edge+5.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Wichita State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
49.0%
@ 1.50-13.5pp
Under 149
51.0%
@ 2.50+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Under 154
Over 154
36.8%
@ 1.95-13.2pp
Under 154
63.2%
@ 1.91+13.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
25.9%
@ 2.62-9.6pp
Under 159
74.1%
@ 1.44+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
Wichita State total 79Actual: Wichita State under 79
Over 79
51.8%
Under 79
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wichita State total 83 · main lineActual: Wichita State under 83
Over 83
35.5%
@ 1.85-14.9pp
Under 83
64.5%
@ 1.88+14.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Wichita State total 87Actual: Wichita State under 87
Over 87
21.5%
Under 87
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austin Peay total 66Actual: Austin Peay under 66
Over 66
62.9%
Under 66
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austin Peay total 70 · main lineActual: Austin Peay under 70
Over 70
46.8%
@ 1.85-3.5pp
Under 70
53.2%
@ 1.87+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Austin Peay total 74Actual: Austin Peay under 74
Over 74
31.4%
Under 74
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Wichita State -15.5Actual: Wichita State -15.5
WICH -15.5
31.2%
@ 2.35-8.5pp
AUST +15.5
68.8%
@ 1.54+8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WICH
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
AUST
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
Spread Wichita State -12.5 · main lineActual: Wichita State -12.5
WICH -12.5
41.2%
@ 1.92-8.9pp
AUST +12.5
58.8%
@ 1.93+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
WICH
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
AUST
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.85
Spread Wichita State -9.5Actual: Wichita State -9.5
WICH -9.5
52.0%
@ 1.55-7.5pp
AUST +9.5
48.0%
@ 2.30+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WICH
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
AUST
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Wichita StateAustin Peay
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Wichita StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A19/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A27/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A02/03
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H07/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H14/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A15/03
NCAA
CS Northridge
#276
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H05/11
NCAA
USC
#62
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H09/11
NCAA
Friends University
#496
W
61-28
61
28
+33
H12/11
NCAA
75.4Avg total
41.2Scored
34.2Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 72.5
Last 30 (30)
37.2
33.2
70.4
+4.0
70%
40%
Last 30 at home (18)
39.2
32.6
71.8
+6.7
78%
44%
Last 30 away (12)
34.2
34.2
68.4
-0.1
58%
33%
Last 10 (10)
41.2
34.2
75.4
+7.0
90%
50%
Last 5 (5)
43.6
35.4
79.0
+8.2
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)
34.8
35.3
70.2
-0.5
50%
50%
vs Similar (7)
34.9
37.9
72.7
-3.0
57%
43%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)
37.6
30.8
68.4
+6.9
81%
31%
This opponent (Austin Peay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Austin PeayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bellarmine
#279
W
53-33
53
33
+20
H14/02
NCAA
North Florida
#361
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A20/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A22/02
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H26/02
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A28/02
NCAA
Stetson
#304
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H08/03
NCAA
Lane College
#465
W
62-25
62
25
+37
H03/11
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#15
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A07/11
NCAA
Livingstone
#382
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H11/11
NCAA
78.6Avg total
42.1Scored
36.5Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 72.5
Last 30 (30)
41.1
35.8
76.9
+5.2
67%
70%
Last 30 at home (16)
43.8
35.7
79.4
+8.1
69%
81%
Last 30 away (14)
38.0
36.0
74.0
+2.0
64%
57%
Last 10 (10)
42.1
36.5
78.6
+5.6
60%
60%
Last 5 (5)
42.8
33.8
76.6
+9.0
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)
37.0
31.0
68.0
+6.0
100%
50%
vs Similar (4)
37.8
36.2
74.0
+1.5
50%
50%
vs Weaker (22)
40.9
36.9
77.8
+4.0
64%
73%
This opponent (Wichita State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Wichita State win
WICH win
no forecast
@ 1.24
AUST win
no forecast
@ 4.55
1st half Spread Wichita State -7 · main linePush
WICH -7
no forecast
@ 1.92
AUST +7
no forecast
@ 1.92
1st half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.92
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
Wichita State 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Wichita State under 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
Austin Peay 1st half total 33 · main lineActual: Austin Peay under 33
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 71Actual: Under 71
Over
no forecast
@ 1.71
Under
no forecast
@ 2.13
1st half Over/Under 74Actual: Under 74
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Wichita State -8Actual: Austin Peay +8
WICH -8
no forecast
@ 2.10
AUST +8
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Wichita State -6Actual: Wichita State -6
WICH -6
no forecast
@ 1.74
AUST +6
no forecast
@ 2.11
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.38
Under
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Wichita State -9.5Actual: Austin Peay +9.5
WICH -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
AUST +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Wichita State -4.5Actual: Wichita State -4.5
WICH -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
AUST +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.38
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.45
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Wichita State -10.5Actual: Austin Peay +10.5
WICH -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
AUST +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Wichita State (regulation)
WICH
no forecast
@ 1.24
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
AUST
no forecast
@ 4.50
Wichita StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A19/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A27/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A02/03
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H07/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H14/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A15/03
NCAA
CS Northridge
#276
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H05/11
NCAA
USC
#62
L
41-50
41
50
-9
H09/11
NCAA
Friends University
#496
W
52-32
52
32
+20
H12/11
NCAA
76.1Avg total
40.0Scored
36.1Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 79.5
Last 30 (30)
39.4
36.7
76.1
+2.7
60%
47%
Last 30 at home (18)
39.5
34.7
74.2
+4.8
78%
39%
Last 30 away (12)
39.3
39.8
79.1
-0.4
33%
58%
Last 10 (10)
40.0
36.1
76.1
+3.9
70%
40%
Last 5 (5)
39.2
36.2
75.4
+3.0
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)
37.7
39.8
77.5
-2.2
33%
50%
vs Similar (7)
39.9
36.4
76.3
+3.4
57%
43%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)
39.1
35.9
75.1
+3.2
69%
44%
This opponent (Austin Peay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Austin PeayLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bellarmine
#279
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H14/02
NCAA
North Florida
#361
W
48-33
48
33
+15
A20/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A22/02
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H26/02
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A28/02
NCAA
Stetson
#304
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H06/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H08/03
NCAA
Lane College
#465
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H03/11
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#15
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A07/11
NCAA
Livingstone
#382
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H11/11
NCAA
80.1Avg total
40.8Scored
39.3Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 79.5
Last 30 (30)
40.7
38.3
79.0
+2.5
53%
47%
Last 30 at home (16)
41.6
34.3
75.9
+7.2
69%
38%
Last 30 away (14)
39.8
42.8
82.6
-3.0
36%
57%
Last 10 (10)
40.8
39.3
80.1
+1.5
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
39.6
35.6
75.2
+4.0
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)
35.0
46.5
81.5
-11.5
0%
50%
vs Similar (4)
36.8
45.5
82.2
-8.8
0%
50%
vs Weaker (22)
41.9
36.5
78.4
+5.4
64%
45%
This opponent (Wichita State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Wichita State win
WICH win
no forecast
@ 1.33
AUST win
no forecast
@ 3.35
2nd half Spread Wichita State -5.5 · main lineActual: Wichita State -5.5
WICH -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
AUST +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Wichita State (regulation)
WICH
no forecast
@ 1.37
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
AUST
no forecast
@ 3.35
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Wichita State under 85.5
72.9%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Won
Wichita State under 86.5
76.1%
1.49
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Wichita State under 87.5
79.1%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Wichita State under 89.5
84.4%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Wichita State under 88.5
81.9%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 157.5
70.6%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Under 158.5
72.7%
1.50
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Wichita State under 90.5
86.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 157
70.0%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Under 159.5
74.6%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Under 160.5
76.5%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 158
72.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 159
74.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Wichita State under 92.5
90.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
78.3%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Under 160
76.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Wichita State under 93.5
92.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Austin Peay +16.5
71.8%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Under 161
77.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Austin Peay +16
70.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Push
Austin Peay +17.5
74.7%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Austin Peay +18.5
77.4%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Austin Peay +17
73.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Wichita State under 94.5
93.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Austin Peay +19.5
79.9%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Wichita State under 96.5
95.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Austin Peay +18
76.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Austin Peay +20
81.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Austin Peay +19
79.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Wichita State under 98.5
97.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Austin Peay +20.5
82.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 163.5
81.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Austin Peay +22.5
86.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Under 178.5
96.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Under 168.5
88.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Austin Peay under 76.5
76.0%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Austin Peay under 75.5
72.9%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 173.5
93.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.5%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Austin Peay under 79.5
83.9%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Austin Peay under 77.5
78.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Austin Peay under 80.5
86.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Wichita State +7.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Austin Peay over 53.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Austin Peay over 55.5
91.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Wichita State (regulation)
79.1%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Marathon Bet
1.12
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Austin Peay over 57.5
87.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Wichita State +2.5
85.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Over 128.5
89.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Wichita State over 68.5
86.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Austin Peay over 59.5
83.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Austin Peay over 61.5
77.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
Austin Peay over 60.5
80.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Lost
Wichita State -2.5
75.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Austin Peay over 63.5
71.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Lost
Wichita State win
81.2%
1.10
Marathon Bet
1.12
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-5.5pp
Won
Wichita State over 70.5
81.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Over 133.5
82.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Wichita State over 72.5
75.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Wichita State over 73.5
72.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
73.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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