PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
William & Mary will host Bowling Green on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Patriots as the clear favourite, giving them an 85% chance of winning, a reflection of their 2-1 season record and 91.3 points per game compared with Bowling Green's 2-0 record and 85.5 points per game. William & Mary have won both of their home games, averaging 92.0 points and allowing 69.5, while Bowling Green's single road outing saw them score 76.0 and concede 73.0. In the last five games, William & Mary went 3-2 and Bowling Green 4-1, with recent results including a 104-73 home win for William & Mary and a 95-79 home victory for Bowling Green. The teams have met once before, with William & Mary winning 82-74 in 2025. Pythia projects a 85-73 score, a total of 157.7 points, and a 3% chance of overtime; the home team is 85% likely to cover the spread. The game will end with William & Mary holding a 12-point advantage.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 91.3 | 78.0 | 169.3 | +13.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 92.0 | 69.5 | 161.5 | +22.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 90.0 | 95.0 | 185.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.7 | 80.3 | 164.0 | +3.4 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.4 | 77.6 | 159.0 | +3.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 82.4 | 84.2 | 166.6 | -1.8 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 85.1 | 73.4 | 158.4 | +11.7 | 71% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 85.5 | 76.0 | 161.5 | +9.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 95.0 | 79.0 | 174.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 76.0 | 73.0 | 149.0 | +3.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.0 | 73.9 | 151.9 | +4.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.0 | 72.0 | 153.0 | +9.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 75.7 | 87.0 | 162.7 | -11.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 67.0 | 82.0 | 149.0 | -15.0 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (23) | 80.0 | 70.5 | 150.5 | +9.6 | 65% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.9 | 37.0 | 77.9 | +3.9 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 41.7 | 35.3 | 77.0 | +6.5 | 87% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 40.1 | 38.7 | 78.7 | +1.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.2 | 37.3 | 78.5 | +3.9 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.2 | 37.0 | 77.2 | +3.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 40.5 | 41.1 | 81.6 | -0.6 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (17) | 41.4 | 34.5 | 75.9 | +6.9 | 88% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 33.8 | 70.5 | +2.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 37.9 | 34.4 | 72.3 | +3.6 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 34.9 | 33.2 | 68.1 | +1.8 | 46% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.0 | 34.6 | 68.6 | -0.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.4 | 35.2 | 69.6 | -0.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 28.3 | 47.3 | 75.7 | -19.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 26.3 | 37.3 | 63.7 | -11.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | 37.6 | 32.0 | 69.5 | +5.6 | 61% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20/11/25 | Bowling Green v William & Mary | 74-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Florida Atlantic | 90-95 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Norfolk State | 104-73 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Bridgewater College (VA) | 80-66 |
| 09/03/26 | A | Hofstra | 61-92 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Elon | 72-62 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Hampton | 94-85 |
| 28/02/26 | A | N. Carolina A&T | 91-88 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Northeastern | 84-77 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Campbell | 83-84 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Elon | 78-81 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Cleveland State | 95-79 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Georgia State | 76-73 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Toledo | 76-77 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Eastern Michigan | 77-69 |
| 28/02/26 | H | UMass | 81-62 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Western Michigan | 79-88 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Miami (Ohio) | 77-91 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Kent State | 71-78 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Toledo | 80-70 |
| 12/02/26 | A | Northern Illinois | 68-52 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 91.3 | 92.0 | 90.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.0 | 69.5 | 95.0 |
| Point differential | +13.3 | +22.5 | -5.0 |
| Avg total | 169.3 | 161.5 | 185.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 85.5 | 95.0 | 76.0 |
| Allowed / game | 76.0 | 79.0 | 73.0 |
| Point differential | +9.5 | +16.0 | +3.0 |
| Avg total | 161.5 | 174.0 | 149.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charleston | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 104.7 | 67.3 | +37.3 |
| 2 |  NC Wilmington | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 71.0 | +19.0 |
| 3 | William & Mary | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 91.3 | 78.0 | +13.3 |
| 4 |  Elon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 69.3 | 68.3 | +1.0 |
| 5 |  Stony Brook | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 64.7 | +9.0 |
| 6 |  N. Carolina A&T | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 68.3 | +8.0 |
| 7 |  Hofstra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 72.7 | 65.3 | +7.3 |
| 8 |  Towson | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 67.3 | -3.0 |
| 9 |  Hampton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.0 | 68.7 | -7.7 |
| 10 |  Drexel | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.0 | 76.3 | -9.3 |
| 11 |  Northeastern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.0 | 86.7 | -9.7 |
| 12 |  Campbell | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.7 | 79.3 | -16.7 |
| 13 |  Monmouth | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 56.7 | 82.3 | -25.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 62.5 | +31.0 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.7 | +20.3 |
| 3 | Bowling Green | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 76.0 | +9.5 |
| 4 |  Ohio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 73.5 | +9.5 |
| 5 |  Miami (Ohio) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 75.0 | +8.0 |
| 6 |  Western Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.3 | 61.3 | +17.0 |
| 7 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 8 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 75.5 | +5.8 |
| 10 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 11 |  Ball State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 66.7 | +3.3 |
| 12 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Toledo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.0 | 78.5 | -8.5 |
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