PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

AEK Larnaca vs Dziki Warszawa Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 83-86
Projected total 168.5
Scheduled
Position#25
Record3-3
FormWWLWL
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game80.0
AEK Larnaca
Vs
40%
60%
■ ALA 40%■ DWA 60%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.8/10
Above normal
4.9/10
Around normal
Dziki Warszawa
Position#8
Record5-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game80.3
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 7· Kition Athletic Center
European cup2026
Sections
Game preview & prediction

AEK Larnaca will host Dziki Warszawa on 18 November 2026 in the FIBA Europe Cup, with the model favouring the away side as the overall shape of the contest leans toward a Dziki victory. AEK Larnaca are 3-3 this season, scoring 79.5 and allowing 80.0 per game, while Dziki Warszawa sit 5-1, averaging 87.5 and conceding 80.3. At home AEK have gone 2-0, 86.0 points for and 79.0 against, but their last five games were 3-2, including a narrow 76-78 loss to Wurzburg, a 103-78 win over Morphou, and a 64-81 defeat by Iraklis. Dziki have been 2-1 on the road, 83.7 points for and 84.0 against, and 4-1 in their last five, highlighted by 91-84 over Tartu Ulikool, 96-75 over Anwil Wloclawek, and 89-66 over MZT Skopje. In the single meeting between the clubs, Dziki won 94-80 on 14 October 2026. The model gives Dziki a 60% chance of winning, AEK 40%, with a projected score of 83-86 and a total of 168.5 points; the 5% overtime probability adds a small edge to the contest's drama.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Larnaca win
40.2%fair 2.49
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dziki Warszawa win
59.8%fair 1.67
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK LarnacaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLarnaca
Date
Competition
Apollon
#7
W
90-56
90
56
+34
92avg 80
A11/10
Division A
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
80-94
80
94
-14
69avg 80
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
83-79
83
79
+4
84avg 80
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
99-93
99
93
+6
100avg 80
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
85-74
85
74
+11
65avg 80
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
85-69
85
69
+16
78avg 80
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
87-61
87
61
+26
94avg 80
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
103-78
103
78
+25
no box
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
L
76-78
76
78
-2
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-14
23-12
18-13
23-17
14-29
20-19
31-17
15-29
30-18
19-20
21-23
13-18
32-21
25-30
22-20
20-22
18-16
30-22
15-21
22-15
23-20
26-22
22-11
14-16
27-10
17-16
30-14
13-21
23-21
11-27
11-14
19-19
29-10
25-18
21-33
28-17
24-12
22-23
17-26
13-17
161.5Avg total
85.2Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)79.580.0159.5-0.550%
Season at home (2)86.079.0165.0+7.0100%
Season away (4)76.280.5156.8-4.225%
Last 10 (10)85.276.3161.5+8.970%
Last 5 (5)83.073.4156.4+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)73.279.5152.8-6.225%
vs Similar (7)78.076.6154.6+1.457%
vs Weaker (18)88.276.0164.2+12.289%
This opponent (Dziki Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dziki WarszawaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarszawa
Date
Competition
Lublin
#14
W
97-77
97
77
+20
96avg 84
H11/10
Energa Basket Liga
AEK Larnaca
#25
W
94-80
94
80
+14
94avg 84
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Gornik Walbrzych
#7
L
71-74
71
74
-3
61avg 84
A18/10
Energa Basket Liga
Iraklis
#11
W
86-85
86
85
+1
82avg 84
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Czarni Slupsk
#15
W
91-81
91
81
+10
96avg 84
H25/10
Energa Basket Liga
Wurzburg
#13
L
62-91
62
91
-29
57avg 84
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Legia
#9
W
92-77
92
77
+15
90avg 84
A31/10
Energa Basket Liga
MZT Skopje
#47
W
89-66
89
66
+23
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Anwil Wloclawek
#12
W
96-75
96
75
+21
no box
H07/11
Energa Basket Liga
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
91-84
91
84
+7
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-10
31-13
22-26
21-28
29-14
19-20
17-31
29-15
16-24
23-18
23-13
9-19
19-20
22-14
19-21
26-30
27-30
16-11
24-20
24-20
16-30
14-16
11-27
21-18
17-21
25-18
24-18
26-20
20-17
27-14
24-17
18-18
42-15
17-16
22-18
15-26
24-16
28-24
23-26
16-18
165.9Avg total
86.9Scored
79.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)87.580.3167.8+7.283%
Season at home (3)91.376.7168.0+14.7100%
Season away (3)83.784.0167.7-0.367%
Last 10 (10)86.979.0165.9+7.980%
Last 5 (5)86.078.6164.6+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)113.0110.0223.0+3.0100%
vs Similar (16)84.486.2170.7-1.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)93.276.9170.1+16.292%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1251%1302%1353%1405%1458%15010%15511%16012%16512%17011%1759%1806%1854%1903%1951%2001%2051%2100%215
0%1252%1355%14510%15512%16511%1756%1853%1951%2050%215
Pythia expects about 168 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%).
Over/Under 160
Over 160
69.7%
Under 160
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 165
Over 165
57.9%
Under 165
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170
Over 170
45.3%
Under 170
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

AEK Larnaca total 80.5
Over 80.5
57.4%
Under 80.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca total 84.5
Over 84.5
42.9%
Under 84.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca total 88.5
Over 88.5
29.5%
Under 88.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dziki Warszawa total 76.5
Over 76.5
81.3%
Under 76.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dziki Warszawa total 80.5
Over 80.5
69.4%
Under 80.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dziki Warszawa total 84.5
Over 84.5
55.0%
Under 84.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-215%-187%-158%-129%-910%-69%-36%+09%+37%+66%+94%+123%+152%+181%+211%+241%+27
0%-361%-303%-245%-188%-1210%-66%+07%+64%+122%+181%+24
Margin from AEK Larnaca's side (positive = AEK Larnaca win). Pythia's expected margin is -3.2; AEK Larnaca win by 1+ in 34% of simulations.
Spread AEK Larnaca -3
ALA -3
32.5%
DWA +3
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
ALA
No market prices yet.
DWA
No market prices yet.
Spread AEK Larnaca 0
ALA 0
40.2%
DWA 0
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
ALA
No market prices yet.
DWA
No market prices yet.
Spread AEK Larnaca +3
ALA +3
47.9%
DWA -3
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
ALA
No market prices yet.
DWA
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.5+7.5Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +5.8+5.8Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.7-0.7
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.5+7.5Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +5.8+5.8Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.7-0.7
AEK LarnacaDziki Warszawa
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Apollon
#7
W
49-26
49
26
+23
A11/10
Division A
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
44-26
44
26
+18
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
54-28
54
28
+26
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
84.4Avg total
46.4Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.940.184.0+3.850%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.739.485.1+6.457%-
Last 30 away (16)42.340.783.0+1.644%-
Last 10 (10)46.438.084.4+8.480%-
Last 5 (5)45.435.881.2+9.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)38.542.881.2-4.225%-
vs Similar (7)40.339.179.4+1.129%-
vs Weaker (18)46.939.686.5+7.367%-
This opponent (Dziki Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dziki WarszawaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lublin
#14
W
54-23
54
23
+31
H11/10
Energa Basket Liga
AEK Larnaca
#25
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Gornik Walbrzych
#7
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A18/10
Energa Basket Liga
Iraklis
#11
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Czarni Slupsk
#15
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H25/10
Energa Basket Liga
Wurzburg
#13
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Legia
#9
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A31/10
Energa Basket Liga
MZT Skopje
#47
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Anwil Wloclawek
#12
W
59-31
59
31
+28
H07/11
Energa Basket Liga
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
52-40
52
40
+12
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
81.6Avg total
45.5Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.341.585.8+2.857%-
Last 30 at home (13)47.139.886.9+7.277%-
Last 30 away (17)42.242.784.9-0.541%-
Last 10 (10)45.536.181.6+9.480%-
Last 5 (5)46.037.483.4+8.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)58.046.0104.0+12.0100%-
vs Similar (16)39.644.283.8-4.738%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)49.036.785.7+12.383%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Larnaca: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.722.7
51.9%
53.4%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.07.4
35.2%
32.5%22.2
🏀 Free throws21.016.1
76.7%
72.8%16.1
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dziki Warszawatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dziki Warszawa: 87.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.423.2
62.0%
53.4%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.0
29.0%
32.5%27.0
🏀 Free throws21.114.4
68.2%
72.8%14.4
They take 68.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Larnaca
LWLWWWWWLW
Dziki Warszawa
WWWWLWWLWW
#25
League position
#8
+10.3
Net rating
+9.5
99.1
Offensive rating
97.0
88.8
Defensive rating
87.5
52.2%
Effective FG%
53.7%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
46.3%
12.4%
Turnover %
14.8%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.31
35.2%
3-point %
29.0%
66.8%
Assist %
71.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 97.0Defence88.8 · 87.5Shooting52.2% · 53.7%3-point %35.2% · 29.0%Ball care12.4% · 14.8%Free throws0.32 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ AEK Larnaca   ■ Dziki Warszawa
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
AEK Larnaca wins
1
Dziki Warszawa wins
DateGameScore
14/10/26Dziki Warszawa v AEK Larnaca94-80
AEK Larnacalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AWurzburg76-78
08/11/26AMorphou103-78
04/11/26AIraklis64-81
31/10/26HETHA Engomi87-61
27/10/26AMZT Skopje85-69
24/10/26AParalimni85-74
21/10/26HTartu Ulikool99-93
18/10/26HApoel BC83-79
14/10/26ADziki Warszawa80-94
11/10/26AApollon90-56
Dziki Warszawalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HTartu Ulikool91-84
07/11/26HAnwil Wloclawek96-75
04/11/26HMZT Skopje89-66
31/10/26ALegia92-77
28/10/26AWurzburg62-91
25/10/26HCzarni Slupsk91-81
21/10/26AIraklis86-85
18/10/26AGornik Walbrzych71-74
14/10/26HAEK Larnaca94-80
11/10/26HLublin97-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Larnaca
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%100%25%
Points / game79.586.076.2
Allowed / game80.079.080.5
Point differential-0.5+7.0-4.2
Avg total159.5165.0156.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dziki Warszawa
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%100%67%
Points / game87.591.383.7
Allowed / game80.376.784.0
Point differential+7.2+14.7-0.3
Avg total167.8168.0167.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.