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Alabama vs Oakland Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 10 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 99-73
Projected total 172.3
Final 109-68
56-29 53-39
Position#48
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game80.0
Alabama 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ ALAB 98%■ OAKL 2%
Pythia win probability
Oakland
USA
Position#377
Record0-3
FormLLLLL
Points / game66.0
Allowed / game85.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Alabama v Oakland
09 Nov 2026
ALAB109
OAKL68
19 Nov 2021
ALAB86
OAKL59
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Alabama hosts Oakland in the NCAA on 9 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Alabama the clear favourite, rating them 98% to win because of a 2-0 season record, 98.5 points per game, and only 80.0 points allowed, while Oakland sits at 0-3, 66.0 points per game and 85.0 points allowed; Alabama has also won both home games, 98.5 points per game, 80.0 allowed, and has a 4-1 record over the last five games, including a 101-86 win over Arkansas State and a 96-74 win over Sam Houston St.; Oakland has gone 0-5 in its last five, with losses to UC Santa Barbara, Stanford and Michigan, all away. Their only meeting was in 2021, when Alabama beat Oakland 86-59. Pythia projects a 99-73 score, 172.3 total points, and a 52% chance of the over on the 171.5 line, with a 98% probability that Alabama covers the spread; the model gives a 2% chance for Oakland to win. The game ends with Alabama's 99 points, Oakland's 73.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alabama winWon
98.2%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Oakland winLost
1.8%fair 57.02
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 14:16 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlabamaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#257
W
100-75
100
75
+25
H26/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A28/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
88-98
88
98
-10
A03/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
96-84
96
84
+12
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
90-70
90
70
+20
H20/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
90-65
90
65
+25
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
77-90
77
90
-13
A27/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#205
W
96-74
96
74
+22
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#300
W
101-86
101
86
+15
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
63-33
37-42
28-40
43-29
43-50
45-48
50-31
46-53
41-47
38-33
37-35
53-35
49-25
41-40
49-47
28-43
40-29
56-45
51-34
50-52
167.9Avg total
88.8Scored
79.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)98.580.0178.5+18.5100%
Season at home (2)98.580.0178.5+18.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)88.879.1167.9+9.770%
Last 5 (5)90.877.0167.8+13.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)76.395.3171.7-19.00%
vs Similar (15)91.184.8175.9+6.373%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)93.777.0170.7+16.792%
This opponent (Oakland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OaklandUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Youngstown State
#227
L
82-86
82
86
-4
H13/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
69-93
69
93
-24
A15/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
L
68-73
68
73
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
81-70
81
70
+11
H22/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
86-74
86
74
+12
A25/02
NCAA
Detroit
#184
L
89-95
89
95
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H05/03
NCAA
Michigan
#219
L
68-84
68
84
-16
A02/11
NCAA
Stanford
#90
L
63-81
63
81
-18
A07/11
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#46
L
67-90
67
90
-23
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-44
43-42
38-42
31-51
32-37
36-36
41-34
40-36
43-33
43-41
42-49
47-46
31-37
53-48
36-47
32-37
33-38
30-43
27-38
40-52
158.8Avg total
75.7Scored
83.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)66.085.0151.0-19.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (3)66.085.0151.0-19.00%
Last 10 (10)75.783.1158.8-7.420%
Last 5 (5)74.287.0161.2-12.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)74.682.0156.6-7.425%
vs Similar (12)87.482.8170.2+4.767%
vs Weaker (6)83.378.3161.7+5.067%
This opponent (Alabama) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 165.5Actual: Over 165.5
Over 165.5
66.3%
@ 1.44+1.4pp
Under 165.5
33.7%
@ 2.70-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 170.5 · main lineActual: Over 170.5
Over 170.5
54.3%
@ 1.92+4.9pp
Under 170.5
45.7%
@ 1.98-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.89
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Over/Under 175.5Actual: Over 175.5
Over 175.5
42.0%
@ 2.35+1.9pp
Under 175.5
58.0%
@ 1.55-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54

📊 3. Team Totals

Alabama total 98Actual: Alabama over 98
Over 98
54.0%
Under 98
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alabama total 102 · main lineActual: Alabama over 102
Over 102
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under 102
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Alabama total 105.5Actual: Alabama over 105.5
Over 105.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 105.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
Oakland total 65Actual: Oakland over 65
Over 65
80.6%
Under 65
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oakland total 69 · main lineActual: Oakland under 69
Over 69
67.3%
@ 1.85+17.3pp
Under 69
32.7%
@ 1.85-17.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Oakland total 73Actual: Oakland under 73
Over 73
51.2%
Under 73
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Alabama -35Actual: Alabama -35
ALAB -35
no forecast
@ 2.29
OAKL +35
no forecast
@ 1.63
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.15
OAKL
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Spread Alabama -32 · main lineActual: Alabama -32
ALAB -32
no forecast
@ 1.94
OAKL +32
no forecast
@ 2.01
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.90
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.72
OAKL
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.81
Spread Alabama -29Actual: Alabama -29
ALAB -29
no forecast
@ 1.55
OAKL +29
no forecast
@ 2.30
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Bet365
1.55
OAKL
Bet365
2.30

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.0+8.01st half: -3.7-3.72nd half2nd half: +1.7+1.72nd half: -3.7-3.7
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.0+8.01st half: -3.7-3.72nd half2nd half: +1.7+1.72nd half: -3.7-3.7
AlabamaOakland
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
AlabamaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#257
W
63-33
63
33
+30
H26/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A28/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A03/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
50-31
50
31
+19
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H13/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H20/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
49-25
49
25
+24
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A27/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#205
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#300
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
82.2Avg total
45.1Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (30)44.137.181.2+7.067%43%
Last 30 at home (20)47.134.982.0+12.280%45%
Last 30 away (10)38.041.579.5-3.540%40%
Last 10 (10)45.137.182.2+8.070%50%
Last 5 (5)45.234.079.2+11.2100%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)42.044.086.0-2.067%33%
vs Similar (15)44.038.982.9+5.153%53%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)44.733.177.8+11.683%33%
This opponent (Oakland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OaklandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Youngstown State
#227
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H13/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A15/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H22/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A25/02
NCAA
Detroit
#184
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H05/03
NCAA
Michigan
#219
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A02/11
NCAA
Stanford
#90
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A07/11
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#46
L
27-38
27
38
-11
A07/11
NCAA
76.1Avg total
36.2Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (30)38.939.778.5-0.843%40%
Last 30 at home (12)39.740.680.2-0.933%50%
Last 30 away (18)38.339.177.4-0.750%33%
Last 10 (10)36.239.976.1-3.720%30%
Last 5 (5)33.841.875.6-8.00%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)35.140.675.7-5.517%25%
vs Similar (12)40.841.181.8-0.350%67%
vs Weaker (6)42.735.077.7+7.783%17%
This opponent (Alabama) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Alabama win
ALAB win
no forecast
@ 1.01
OAKL win
no forecast
@ 18.00
1st half Spread Alabama -18.5 · main lineActual: Alabama -18.5
ALAB -18.5
no forecast
@ 1.96
OAKL +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Over 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Alabama 1st half total 50 · main lineActual: Alabama over 50
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Oakland 1st half total 32 · main lineActual: Oakland under 32
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half: ALAB + total 81.5
ALAB & over
no forecast
@ 1.83
ALAB & under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: Draw + total 81.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 51.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 51.00
1st half: OAKL + total 81.5
OAKL & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
OAKL & under
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half Over/Under 81Actual: Over 81
Over
no forecast
@ 1.70
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Spread Alabama -19.5Actual: Alabama -19.5
ALAB -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
OAKL +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Alabama -17.5Actual: Alabama -17.5
ALAB -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
OAKL +17.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 84.5Actual: Over 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Spread Alabama -20.5Actual: Alabama -20.5
ALAB -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
OAKL +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Alabama -16.5Actual: Alabama -16.5
ALAB -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
OAKL +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Alabama (regulation)
ALAB
no forecast
@ 1.01
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
OAKL
no forecast
@ 19.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
ALAB win + total 170.5
🔒 Pro
OAKL win + total 170.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ALAB leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: OAKL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Oakland over 67.572.0%1.71
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.57		---+20.8ppWon
Oakland over 65.578.3%1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.39		---+13.5ppWon
Oakland over 63.583.8%1.29
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29		---+13.3ppWon
Oakland over 66.575.3%1.49
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47		--+12.8ppWon
Oakland over 64.581.2%1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32		---+11.9ppWon
Oakland over 62.586.1%1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22		---+11.2ppWon
Oakland over 60.590.0%1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12		---+7.8ppWon
Oakland over 58.593.1%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+7.0ppWon
Oakland over 59.591.7%1.10
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.10		---+7.0ppWon
Over 162.572.8%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+6.4ppWon
Oakland over 56.595.4%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+6.4ppWon
Oakland over 54.597.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+5.8ppWon
Oakland over 52.598.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+5.3ppWon
Alabama over 82.595.1%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+3.6ppWon
Alabama over 81.596.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.3ppWon
Alabama over 80.596.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.1ppWon
Over 146.594.6%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+3.1ppWon
Alabama over 83.594.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+2.5ppWon
Alabama over 84.592.8%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+2.3ppWon
Over 163.570.7%1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32		---+2.1ppWon
Alabama over 85.591.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+1.7ppWon
Over 151.590.2%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+1.2ppWon
Over 16470.1%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+1.1ppWon
Alabama over 86.589.6%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+0.9ppWon
Over 161.574.9%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+0.1ppWon
Over 156.583.7%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----0.1ppWon
Alabama over 88.585.5%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----0.6ppWon
Alabama over 87.587.7%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----0.6ppWon
Alabama over 90.580.4%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----1.9ppWon
Alabama over 89.583.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.4ppWon
Under 181.571.8%1.25
Bet365
1.25		-----3.0ppWon
Alabama over 91.577.5%1.14
Bet365
1.14		-----3.9ppWon
Alabama over 92.574.4%1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17		----4.8ppWon
Alabama -12.587.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----4.9ppWon
Alabama over 93.571.0%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----6.8ppWon
Oakland under 80.576.6%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----10.5ppWon
Oakland under 79.573.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----11.6ppWon
Alabama -17.576.4%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----12.3ppWon
Oakland under 78.570.1%1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12		----12.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Alabama wins
0
Oakland wins
DateGameScore
20/11/21Alabama v Oakland86-59
Alabamalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HArkansas State101-86
04/11/26HSam Houston St.96-74
27/03/26AMichigan77-90
23/03/26HTexas Tech90-65
20/03/26HHofstra90-70
13/03/26HOle Miss79-80
08/03/26HAuburn96-84
03/03/26AGeorgia88-98
28/02/26ATennessee71-69
26/02/26HMississippi St.100-75
Oaklandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AUC Santa Barbara67-90
07/11/26AStanford63-81
02/11/26AMichigan68-84
05/03/26HNorthern Kentucky84-85
28/02/26HDetroit89-95
25/02/26AIU Indy86-74
22/02/26HWisc. Milwaukee81-70
21/02/26HWisc. Green Bay68-73
15/02/26ARobert Morris69-93
13/02/26HYoungstown State82-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alabama
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game98.598.5-
Allowed / game80.080.0-
Point differential+18.5+18.5-
Avg total178.5178.5-
Over 170.550%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Oakland
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
Home--
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games3-3
Win %0%-0%
Points / game66.0-66.0
Allowed / game85.0-85.0
Point differential-19.0--19.0
Avg total151.0-151.0
Over 170.50%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 LSU220100%96.054.0+42.0
3 Ole Miss220100%95.559.0+36.5
4 Vanderbilt220100%83.549.0+34.5
5 Texas A&M220100%100.566.5+34.0
6 Auburn110100%92.059.0+33.0
7 Mississippi St.220100%94.066.0+28.0
8 Tennessee220100%80.053.0+27.0
9 Florida220100%82.562.0+20.5
10 Alabama220100%98.580.0+18.5
11 Kentucky220100%87.068.5+18.5
12 South Carolina220100%79.561.5+18.0
13 Georgia330100%83.070.3+12.7
14 Missouri21150%97.570.0+27.5
15 Arkansas21150%89.076.0+13.0
16 Oklahoma21150%74.062.5+11.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Horizon League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Wright State220100%99.571.0+28.5
2 Wisc. Green Bay32167%78.066.3+11.7
3 Northern Kentucky32167%84.391.3-7.0
4 IPFW21150%87.071.5+15.5
5 Youngstown State21150%72.080.0-8.0
6 Wisc. Milwaukee31233%78.079.3-1.3
7 Cleveland State31233%77.395.0-17.7
8 Oakland3030%66.085.0-19.0
9 Robert Morris2020%52.582.5-30.0
10 Detroit1010%32.093.0-61.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Alabama5653109
Oakland293968
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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