PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Alvik W vs Lund W Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Projected 81-67
Projected total 147.9
Scheduled
Position#4
Record5-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game69.2
Alvik W
Sweden
Vs
89%
■ ALVI 89%■ LUND 11%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.9/10
Around normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Lund W
Sweden
Position#11
Record0-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game59.5
Allowed / game78.3
SwedenBasketligan WRound 7· Akeshovshallen
Women2026-27
Meetings · Alvik W v Lund W
21 Nov 2026
ALVI v LUND
upcoming
21 Mar 2026
ALVI73
LUND85
08 Mar 2025
ALVI87
LUND75
21 Oct 2023
ALVI94
LUND87
29 Oct 2022
ALVI90
LUND67
27 Nov 2021
ALVI88
LUND76
18 Nov 2020
ALVI85
LUND73
22 Feb 2020
ALVI66
LUND39
30 Mar 2019
ALVI53
LUND64
24 Mar 2019
ALVI55
LUND65
02 Feb 2019
ALVI81
LUND50
03 Mar 2018
ALVI63
LUND66
07 Oct 2017
ALVI87
LUND63
28 Mar 2017
ALVI81
LUND56
22 Mar 2017
ALVI71
LUND44
15 Mar 2017
ALVI68
LUND74
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Alvik W host Lund W in the Basketligan W. Pythia makes Alvik W the favourite at 89% and projects 81-67, about 148 points in all. Overtime chance: 2%. Alvik W are 5-1 this season (80.2 scored, 69.2 allowed a game), form WWWWL; Lund W are 0-6 this season (59.5 scored, 78.3 allowed a game), form LLLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alvik W win
88.5%fair 1.13
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Lund W win
11.5%fair 8.71
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Alvik WSwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Norrkoping W
#7
L
58-91
58
91
-33
44avg 70
H21/02
Basketligan W
Hogsbo W
#3
L
61-94
61
94
-33
49avg 70
A01/03
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#2
L
42-74
42
74
-32
28avg 70
A05/03
Basketligan W
Lund W
#9
L
73-85
73
85
-12
67avg 70
H21/03
Basketligan W
AIK Basket W
#9
W
87-76
87
76
+11
68avg 70
H04/10
Basketligan W
Hogsbo W
#10
W
78-67
78
67
+11
72avg 70
A10/10
Basketligan W
Brahe W
#12
W
86-53
86
53
+33
78avg 70
A18/10
Basketligan W
Sodertalje W
#5
W
81-67
81
67
+14
73avg 70
A24/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
W
80-73
80
73
+7
no box
H04/11
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#6
L
69-79
69
79
-10
no box
A07/11
Basketligan W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
12-25
14-29
17-16
16-20
13-24
13-32
19-18
4-30
10-14
11-10
17-20
18-22
20-19
18-24
17-20
23-14
19-25
19-22
26-15
16-18
31-8
19-23
12-18
18-16
30-9
18-19
20-9
30-24
18-14
15-17
18-12
21-24
12-17
25-13
22-19
25-17
15-21
13-21
16-20
147.4Avg total
71.5Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)80.269.2149.3+11.083%
Season at home (2)83.574.5158.0+9.0100%
Season away (4)78.566.5145.0+12.075%
Last 10 (10)71.575.9147.4-4.450%
Last 5 (5)78.867.8146.6+11.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)65.683.6149.1-18.07%
vs Similar (4)81.285.5166.8-4.225%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)80.459.9140.3+20.592%
This opponent (Lund W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lund WSwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Malbas Malmo W
#8
L
85-92 OT
85
92
-7
56avg 64
H24/02
Basketligan W
Visby W
#12
W
86-48
86
48
+38
76avg 64
A01/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#4
L
62-82
62
82
-20
43avg 64
A07/03
Basketligan W
Alvik W
#10
W
85-73
85
73
+12
68avg 64
A21/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#6
L
65-74
65
74
-9
no box
A03/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
L
60-68
60
68
-8
50avg 64
H11/10
Basketligan W
AIK Basket W
#9
L
63-71
63
71
-8
59avg 64
A19/10
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
L
51-88
51
88
-37
43avg 64
H25/10
Basketligan W
Norrkoping W
#3
L
53-80
53
80
-27
42avg 64
A01/11
Basketligan W
Onsala W
#2
L
65-89
65
89
-24
no box
H07/11
Basketligan W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-16
16-14
6-22
22-17
26-14
22-11
12-12
26-11
17-25
13-16
17-17
15-24
22-18
19-20
24-18
20-17
15-19
14-25
19-17
17-13
12-22
20-8
15-22
13-16
17-19
23-11
12-26
11-15
20-17
7-25
11-19
13-27
12-26
15-23
11-17
15-14
8-21
23-18
14-29
20-21
144.0Avg total
67.5Scored
76.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)59.578.3137.8-18.80%
Season at home (3)58.781.7140.3-23.00%
Season away (3)60.375.0135.3-14.70%
Last 10 (10)67.576.5144.0-9.020%
Last 5 (5)58.479.2137.6-20.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)68.781.4150.1-12.711%
vs Similar (5)82.683.0165.6-0.440%
vs Weaker (6)84.766.5151.2+18.283%
This opponent (Alvik W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143
Over 143
61.9%
Under 143
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 148
Over 148
49.5%
Under 148
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 153
Over 153
37.1%
Under 153
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Alvik W total 71.5
Over 71.5
82.7%
Under 71.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alvik W total 75.5
Over 75.5
70.6%
Under 75.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alvik W total 79.5
Over 79.5
55.5%
Under 79.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lund W total 68.5
Over 68.5
43.9%
Under 68.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lund W total 72.5
Over 72.5
29.2%
Under 72.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lund W total 76.5
Over 76.5
17.6%
Under 76.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Alvik W -3
ALVI -3
84.3%
LUND +3
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
ALVI
No market prices yet.
LUND
No market prices yet.
Spread Alvik W 0
ALVI 0
88.5%
LUND 0
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
ALVI
No market prices yet.
LUND
No market prices yet.
Spread Alvik W +3
ALVI +3
92.3%
LUND -3
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
ALVI
No market prices yet.
LUND
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -4.5-4.5Q3: -5.8-5.8Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -0.3-0.3
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -4.5-4.5Q3: -5.8-5.8Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -0.3-0.3
Alvik WLund W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Alvik WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Norrkoping W
#7
L
27-46
27
46
-19
H21/02
Basketligan W
Hogsbo W
#3
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A01/03
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#2
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A05/03
Basketligan W
Lund W
#9
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H21/03
Basketligan W
AIK Basket W
#9
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H04/10
Basketligan W
Hogsbo W
#10
W
47-26
47
26
+21
A10/10
Basketligan W
Brahe W
#12
W
48-25
48
25
+23
A18/10
Basketligan W
Sodertalje W
#5
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A24/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H04/11
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#6
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A07/11
Basketligan W
74.8Avg total
36.6Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.436.972.2-1.540%-
Last 30 at home (14)33.636.970.4-3.329%-
Last 30 away (16)36.936.973.8+0.150%-
Last 10 (10)36.638.274.8-1.650%-
Last 5 (5)43.233.676.8+9.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)30.941.272.1-10.414%-
vs Similar (4)36.242.278.5-6.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)40.330.070.3+10.375%-
This opponent (Lund W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lund WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malbas Malmo W
#8
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H24/02
Basketligan W
Visby W
#12
W
48-25
48
25
+23
A01/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#4
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A07/03
Basketligan W
Alvik W
#10
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A21/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#6
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A03/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H11/10
Basketligan W
AIK Basket W
#9
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A19/10
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
L
27-42
27
42
-15
H25/10
Basketligan W
Norrkoping W
#3
L
27-49
27
49
-22
A01/11
Basketligan W
Onsala W
#2
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H07/11
Basketligan W
71.4Avg total
34.6Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.838.874.5-3.037%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.037.773.7-1.733%-
Last 30 away (15)35.539.975.4-4.340%-
Last 10 (10)34.636.871.4-2.250%-
Last 5 (5)31.438.069.4-6.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)34.141.575.5-7.421%-
vs Similar (5)38.635.874.4+2.860%-
vs Weaker (6)38.832.771.5+6.267%-
This opponent (Alvik W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alvik Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvik W: 66.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 71.1 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.615.7
45.4%
46.8%31.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.17.8
27.8%
30.7%23.4
🏀 Free throws15.111.6
76.8%
71.1%11.6
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lund Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lund W: 70.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 71.1 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.618.7
40.1%
46.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.67.0
27.3%
30.7%21.0
🏀 Free throws18.412.5
67.9%
71.1%12.5
They take 72.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alvik W
LWWWWWLLLL
Lund W
LLLLLLWLWL
#4
League position
#11
-9.1
Net rating
-7.5
74.6
Offensive rating
72.5
83.7
Defensive rating
80.0
43.7%
Effective FG%
40.4%
45.8%
Opp. effective FG%
46.8%
21.9%
Turnover %
19.0%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.25
27.8%
3-point %
27.3%
75.3%
Assist %
56.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence74.6 · 72.5Defence83.7 · 80.0Shooting43.7% · 40.4%3-point %27.8% · 27.3%Ball care21.9% · 19.0%Free throws0.24 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Alvik W   ■ Lund W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Alvik W wins
3
Lund W wins
DateGameScore
21/03/26Alvik W v Lund W73-85
06/12/25Lund W v Alvik W103-94 OT
08/03/25Alvik W v Lund W87-75
07/12/24Lund W v Alvik W76-93
27/01/24Lund W v Alvik W70-79
21/10/23Alvik W v Lund W94-87
25/02/23Lund W v Alvik W91-63
29/10/22Alvik W v Lund W90-67
09/02/22Lund W v Alvik W68-70
27/11/21Alvik W v Lund W88-76
Alvik Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AOstersund W69-79
04/11/26HUppsala W80-73
24/10/26ASodertalje W81-67
18/10/26ABrahe W86-53
10/10/26AHogsbo W78-67
04/10/26HAIK Basket W87-76
21/03/26HLund W73-85
05/03/26AUppsala W42-74
01/03/26AHogsbo W61-94
21/02/26HNorrkoping W58-91
Lund Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HOnsala W65-89
01/11/26ANorrkoping W53-80
25/10/26HLulea W51-88
19/10/26AAIK Basket W63-71
11/10/26HUppsala W60-68
03/10/26AOstersund W65-74
21/03/26AAlvik W85-73
07/03/26AOstersund W62-82
01/03/26AVisby W86-48
24/02/26HMalbas Malmo W85-92 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alvik W
Basketligan W 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL83%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %83%100%75%
Points / game80.283.578.5
Allowed / game69.274.566.5
Point differential+11.0+9.0+12.0
Avg total149.3158.0145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lund W
Basketligan W 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game59.558.760.3
Allowed / game78.381.775.0
Point differential-18.8-23.0-14.7
Avg total137.8140.3135.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Lulea W65183%97.556.2+41.3
2 Onsala W65183%88.264.0+24.2
3 Norrkoping W65183%76.563.5+13.0
4 Alvik W65183%80.269.2+11.0
5 Sodertalje W65183%73.066.5+6.5
6 Ostersund W64267%79.877.5+2.3
7 Uppsala W63350%76.271.0+5.2
8 Visby W62433%71.375.7-4.3
9 AIK Basket W61517%64.084.2-20.2
10 Hogsbo W61517%60.386.2-25.8
11 Lund W6060%59.578.3-18.8
12 Brahe W6060%57.591.8-34.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.