Aris hosts Le Mans on 18 November 2026 in the EuroCup, and the Pythia model names the Greek club as the favourite with a 63% chance of victory, 37% for the French side. Aris has gone 6-1 in all seven games this season, averaging 90.6 points scored and 77.0 allowed, and sits fourth in the league; at home they are unbeaten 4-0, posting 91.0 points per game and 75.5 allowed, and have won four of their last five. Their recent outings include a 105-81 win over Rigas Zelli at home, an 88-77 away win over Lefkadas, and a 73-84 loss to Hapoel Jerusalem. Le Mans is 4-3 overall, scoring 80.7 and conceding 78.1, and is twelfth in the standings; on the road they are 2-1, averaging 79.3 points and 73.3 allowed, and have also won four of their last five, with wins over San Pablo Burgos, Strasbourg and Rigas Zelli. Historically the teams have met five times, with Le Mans winning four; the last encounter saw Aris win 87-74 on 29 September 2026. The Pythia projection is 83-79, 161.7 total points, a home line of -13.5 with a 22% chance of covering, and a total line of 164.5 with a 43% over probability, while the overtime likelihood is 5%. The next game will test whether Aris can maintain its dominant home form against a Le Mans squad that has shown recent resilience.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aris win
63.4%fair 1.58
Best odds1.08
Implied85.5%
Edge-22.1pp
Le Mans win
36.6%fair 2.73
Best odds6.39
Implied14.5%
Edge+22.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 162 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 160-164 (12%). The market's main line is 164.5.
Over/Under 159.5
Over 159.5
54.6%
@ 1.50-6.6pp
Under 159.5
45.4%
@ 2.37+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 164.5 · main line
Over 164.5
42.7%
@ 1.87-7.3pp
Under 164.5
57.3%
@ 1.87+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 169.5
Over 169.5
31.5%
@ 2.40-6.9pp
Under 169.5
68.5%
@ 1.50+6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Aris total 85
Over 85
42.1%
Under 85
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris total 89 · main line
Over 89
27.9%
@ 1.73-21.8pp
Under 89
72.1%
@ 1.71+21.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Under
1xBet
1.71
Aris total 93
Over 93
16.6%
Under 93
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Le Mans total 71.5
Over 71.5
75.3%
@ 1.42+11.9pp
Under 71.5
24.7%
@ 2.50-11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.37
Le Mans total 75.5 · main line
Over 75.5
61.8%
@ 1.85+12.6pp
Under 75.5
38.2%
@ 1.78-12.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.74
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.70
Le Mans total 79.5
Over 79.5
46.8%
@ 2.57+11.2pp
Under 79.5
53.2%
@ 1.40-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.44
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Aris's side (positive = Aris win). Pythia's expected margin is +4.1; Aris win by 1+ in 57% of simulations.
Spread Aris -16.5
ARI -16.5
15.9%
@ 2.27-24.2pp
LMA +16.5
84.1%
@ 1.55+24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
ARI
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.23
LMA
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.47
Spread Aris -13.5 · main line
ARI -13.5
22.3%
@ 1.86-27.9pp
LMA +13.5
77.7%
@ 1.88+27.9pp
Best 5 market prices
ARI
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.83
LMA
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Spread Aris -10.5
ARI -10.5
30.3%
@ 1.53-30.2pp
LMA +10.5
69.7%
@ 2.32+30.2pp
Best 5 market prices
ARI
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.46
LMA
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.26
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
ArisLe Mans
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
ARI win
58.0%
@ 1.31-13.8pp
LMA win
42.0%
@ 3.35+13.8pp
2nd half Spread Aris -5.5 · main line
ARI -5.5
35.7%
@ 1.83-15.4pp
LMA +5.5
64.3%
@ 1.91+15.4pp
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main line
Over
47.7%
@ 1.91-1.3pp
Under
52.3%
@ 1.83+1.3pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
ARI
55.7%
@ 1.34-12.6pp
Draw
4.0%
@ 19.00-0.8pp
LMA
40.3%
@ 3.40+13.4pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aristheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Aris: 72.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.3
17.1
45.8%
54.0%
34.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.0
7.2
27.7%
34.0%
21.6
🏀Free throws
24.3
16.8
69.1%
75.6%
16.8
Their opponents take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Le Manstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Le Mans: 84.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.7
22.1
53.0%
54.0%
44.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.6
8.7
30.4%
34.0%
26.1
🏀Free throws
17.5
14.3
81.7%
75.6%
14.3
Their opponents take 70.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aristheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Aris: 81.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.5 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.7
18.2
51.0%
54.0%
36.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.3
9.1
33.5%
34.0%
27.4
🏀Free throws
24.0
17.2
71.9%
75.6%
17.2
Their opponents take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Le Manstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Le Mans: 84.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.9 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.0
20.5
53.9%
54.0%
40.9
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.6
9.1
32.9%
34.0%
27.2
🏀Free throws
20.4
16.0
78.1%
75.6%
16.0
Their opponents take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aris
WWLWWWWWWW
Le Mans
WWWWLWWWWW
#4
League position
#12
+16.5
Net rating
+5.8
96.8
Offensive rating
98.7
80.3
Defensive rating
92.9
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.9%
44.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.0%
15.6%
Turnover %
14.5%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.31
36.6%
3-point %
36.4%
71.6%
Assist %
57.1%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
90%
Profile
■ Aris■ Le Mans
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 32 teams: scroll the table.
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