Arizona State hosts Hofstra on 10 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the model projects to be a high-scoring affair, with a total of 145.3 points expected, driven by Arizona State's 82.5 points per game and Hofstra's 77.5. Arizona State enters the game 2-0 for the season, having allowed 64.0 per game, while Hofstra is 1-1, allowing 55.5. The Sun Devils have won both of their home games, scoring 82.5 and conceding 64.0, and have won three of their last five, including a 90-63 victory over Northern Colorado and a 75-65 win over East Tennessee St.; they also lost 42-91 to Iowa State away. Hofstra's road record is 0-1, with a 58-60 loss to Princeton, and their last five include a 97-51 home win over St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) and a 70-90 loss to Alabama. The Pythia model favours Arizona State with a 72% chance of victory and a projected score of 76-69, while the over is 74% likely on the 134.5 line and the home team covers only 21% of the -15.5 spread; overtime is a 5% possibility. The Sun Devils' recent 90-63 win suggests they will maintain their offensive momentum.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arizona State winWon
71.9%fair 1.39
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge-20.8pp
Hofstra winLost
28.1%fair 3.56
Best odds16.00
Implied7.3%
Edge+20.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Arizona State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 128.5Actual: Over 128.5
Over 128.5
84.6%
@ 1.47+20.6pp
Under 128.5
15.4%
@ 2.65-20.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 133.5 · main lineActual: Over 133.5
Over 133.5
76.1%
@ 1.92+26.4pp
Under 133.5
23.9%
@ 1.90-26.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Over 138.5
Over 138.5
65.6%
@ 2.62+29.1pp
Under 138.5
34.4%
@ 1.47-29.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
Arizona State total 71Actual: Arizona State over 71
Over 71
69.4%
Under 71
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arizona State total 75 · main lineActual: Arizona State over 75
Over 75
53.9%
@ 1.85+3.7pp
Under 75
46.1%
@ 1.86-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Arizona State total 79Actual: Arizona State over 79
Over 79
37.6%
Under 79
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hofstra total 53Actual: Hofstra over 53
Over 53
95.0%
Under 53
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hofstra total 57 · main lineActual: Hofstra over 57
Over 57
89.3%
@ 1.85+39.1pp
Under 57
10.7%
@ 1.87-39.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Hofstra total 61Actual: Hofstra over 61
Over 61
79.9%
Under 61
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Arizona State -21.5Actual: Arizona State -21.5
ARIZ -21.5
9.8%
@ 2.65-27.8pp
HOFS +21.5
90.2%
@ 1.55+27.8pp
Best 5 market prices
ARIZ
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.30
HOFS
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.42
Spread Arizona State -18.5 · main lineActual: Arizona State -18.5
ARIZ -18.5
14.7%
@ 1.91-35.5pp
HOFS +18.5
85.3%
@ 1.93+35.5pp
Best 5 market prices
ARIZ
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
HOFS
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
Spread Arizona State -15.5Actual: Arizona State -15.5
ARIZ -15.5
21.4%
@ 1.80-33.8pp
HOFS +15.5
78.6%
@ 2.30+33.8pp
Best 5 market prices
ARIZ
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
Marathon Be
1.71
HOFS
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.07
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.91
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Arizona StateHofstra
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arizona StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Tech
#63
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H18/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A21/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A25/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H28/02
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
40-20
40
20
+20
H04/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A07/03
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H10/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
16-45
16
45
-29
A11/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#283
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H03/11
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#196
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H07/11
NCAA
68.6Avg total
36.7Scored
31.9Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 62.5
Last 30 (30)
37.3
36.7
74.0
+0.6
60%
87%
Last 30 at home (17)
39.5
34.2
73.7
+5.4
71%
82%
Last 30 away (13)
34.4
39.9
74.3
-5.5
46%
92%
Last 10 (10)
36.7
31.9
68.6
+4.8
80%
70%
Last 5 (5)
37.2
34.8
72.0
+2.4
80%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)
36.3
37.8
74.1
-1.4
61%
89%
vs Similar (10)
38.0
36.3
74.3
+1.7
50%
80%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)
42.5
28.5
71.0
+14.0
100%
100%
This opponent (Hofstra) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Arizona State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Arizona State win
ARIZ win
no forecast
@ 1.20
HOFS win
no forecast
@ 4.70
2nd half Spread Arizona State -6.5 · main lineActual: Arizona State -6.5
ARIZ -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
HOFS +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 69.5 · main lineActual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Arizona State 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Arizona State over 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Hofstra 2nd half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Hofstra over 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Spread Arizona State -7.5Actual: Arizona State -7.5
ARIZ -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
HOFS +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Spread Arizona State -8.5Actual: Arizona State -8.5
ARIZ -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
HOFS +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Arizona State (regulation)
ARIZ
no forecast
@ 1.22
Draw
no forecast
@ 22.00
HOFS
no forecast
@ 4.60
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Hofstra over 60.5
80.5%
2.47
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.20
-
-
+44.7pp
Won
Hofstra over 62.5
74.6%
2.98
Bet365
3.30
Betano
2.67
-
-
-
+43.6pp
Won
Hofstra over 63.5
71.4%
3.27
1xBet
3.50
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.00
-
-
+43.3pp
Lost
Hofstra +13
72.4%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+41.3pp
Lost
Hofstra +16
80.6%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Bet
1.95
SBO
1.88
-
+41.1pp
Lost
Hofstra over 61.5
77.7%
2.51
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.42
-
-
-
+41.0pp
Won
Hofstra +14
75.3%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+41.0pp
Lost
Hofstra +16.5
81.0%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.12
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
+39.6pp
Lost
Hofstra over 59.5
83.1%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.07
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
+39.5pp
Won
Hofstra +17
82.9%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
2.00
SBO
1.78
-
+39.2pp
Lost
Hofstra over 57
89.3%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+39.1pp
Won
Hofstra over 58.5
85.5%
1.89
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
+38.5pp
Won
Hofstra +17.5
83.2%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.93
Betano
1.88
-
+37.8pp
Lost
Hofstra +18
85.0%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.02
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
+37.4pp
Lost
Hofstra over 57.5
87.6%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
+37.4pp
Won
Hofstra over 58
87.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+37.4pp
Won
Hofstra +12.5
70.2%
2.81
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.57
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Lost
Hofstra +13.5
73.2%
2.56
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Lost
Hofstra over 56.5
89.5%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+36.0pp
Won
Hofstra over 59
85.1%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+35.5pp
Won
Hofstra +18.5
85.3%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.87
+35.5pp
Lost
Hofstra +15
78.0%
2.24
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathon Bet
1.98
-
-
+35.3pp
Lost
Hofstra +14.5
76.0%
2.36
Bet365
2.55
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.18
-
-
+35.1pp
Lost
Hofstra +19
86.8%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.84
SBO
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
+34.5pp
Lost
Hofstra +15.5
78.6%
2.03
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.07
Marathon Bet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
+33.8pp
Lost
Hofstra +19.5
87.1%
1.77
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.74
+32.3pp
Lost
Hofstra +20
88.5%
1.68
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Lost
Hofstra +20.5
88.7%
1.59
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.50
-
-
+29.7pp
Lost
Hofstra +21
90.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
-
-
-
+29.2pp
Lost
Hofstra +22
91.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+28.9pp
Push
Hofstra over 55.5
91.2%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Won
Hofstra over 54.5
92.7%
1.46
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.39
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Over 135
73.6%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.09
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
Over 135.5
72.1%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
-
+27.9pp
Won
Hofstra +21.5
90.2%
1.48
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Lost
Over 134.5
74.1%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.95
SBO
1.93
+27.5pp
Won
Over 134
75.6%
1.93
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.91
SBO
1.88
-
+27.5pp
Won
Hofstra +23
92.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Won
Over 133.5
76.1%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.88
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
+26.4pp
Won
Over 133
77.5%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+26.2pp
Won
Hofstra +22.5
91.5%
1.42
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Won
Over 136
71.5%
2.12
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.08
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
Over 136.5
70.0%
2.19
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.13
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Over 132.5
78.0%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.78
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
+25.5pp
Won
Over 132
79.4%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Over 131.5
79.8%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.64
-
+24.8pp
Won
Hofstra +24
93.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Won
Hofstra +24.5
93.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Hofstra +23.5
92.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Hofstra over 53.5
94.0%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Won
Over 131
81.1%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Over 130.5
81.4%
1.58
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Hofstra +25
94.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Over 130
82.8%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Over 129.5
83.1%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Over 129
84.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
Over 128.5
84.6%
1.45
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Over 128
85.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Over 127.5
86.0%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Over 126.5
87.3%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Over 127
87.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Over 126
88.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Over 125.5
88.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Over 124.5
89.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Over 123.5
90.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Arizona State under 93.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Arizona State under 91.5
93.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Arizona State under 92.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Arizona State over 70.5
70.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Arizona State under 89.5
91.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Arizona State under 90.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Arizona State under 85.5
82.9%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Arizona State under 87.5
87.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Arizona State under 88.5
89.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Arizona State under 86.5
85.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Arizona State under 81.5
71.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Lost
Arizona State under 83.5
77.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Lost
Arizona State under 82.5
74.3%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
Arizona State over 69.5
73.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Arizona State under 84.5
80.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Lost
Under 159.5
80.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
Arizona State +3.5
79.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.0pp
Won
Under 158.5
79.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.6pp
Won
Arizona State +1.5
74.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-18.6pp
Won
Under 154.5
71.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-18.9pp
Won
Arizona State win
71.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.01
-20.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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