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Arkansas State vs North Dakota St Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 28 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 85-80 (OT)
39-35 31-35 15-10
Position#98
Record4-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game82.1
vs
Position#30
Record5-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game80.6
Allowed / game64.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Dakota St winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#68
L
81-94
81
94
-13
A10/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#31
W
103-78
103
78
+25
H19/03
NIT
North Texas
#3
L
63-65
63
65
-2
A23/03
NIT
Ohio
#241
W
89-85
89
85
+4
A04/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
95-67
95
67
+28
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A20/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
69-100
69
100
-31
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
74-63
74
63
+11
H25/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
43-41
0-0
38-53
0-0
50-37
0-0
53-41
0-0
33-34
0-0
30-31
0-0
32-39
0-0
57-46
0-0
31-46
0-0
34-44
0-0
33-46
0-0
53-39
0-0
45-28
0-0
50-39
0-0
39-47
0-0
33-38
0-0
30-50
0-0
39-50
0-0
38-32
0-0
36-31
160.9Avg total
79.7Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)78.682.1160.7-3.657%
Season at home (2)84.565.0149.5+19.5100%
Season away (5)76.289.0165.2-12.840%
Last 10 (10)79.781.2160.9-1.550%
Last 5 (5)79.280.0159.2-0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)68.587.5156.0-19.00%
vs Similar (9)71.776.6148.2-4.933%
vs Weaker (17)81.168.5149.6+12.682%
This opponent (North Dakota St) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North Dakota StUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Dakota
#312
L
77-79
77
79
-2
A22/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#146
W
82-78
82
78
+4
H27/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#146
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H08/03
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
L
65-67
65
67
-2
A04/11
NCAA
UC Davis
#139
L
68-80
68
80
-12
A06/11
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
W
90-68
90
68
+22
H12/11
NCAA
St. Scholastica Saints
#711
W
111-38
111
38
+73
H13/11
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
92-85
92
85
+7
H18/11
NCAA
Jamestown Jimmies
#404
W
82-67
82
67
+15
H20/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A26/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-33
38-46
41-37
41-41
40-34
44-51
32-30
33-37
26-26
42-54
30-33
60-35
50-20
61-18
53-46
39-39
41-36
41-31
35-21
21-22
149.7Avg total
80.7Scored
69.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.664.0144.6+16.671%
Season at home (4)93.864.5158.2+29.2100%
Season away (3)63.063.3126.3-0.333%
Last 10 (10)80.769.0149.7+11.760%
Last 5 (5)86.260.2146.4+26.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)73.973.4147.3+0.457%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)83.074.8157.8+8.270%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: -2.6-2.61st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: +4.6+4.6
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: -2.6-2.61st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: +4.6+4.6
Arkansas StateNorth Dakota St
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#68
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A10/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#31
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H19/03
NIT
North Texas
#3
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A23/03
NIT
Ohio
#241
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A04/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A20/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H25/11
NCAA
77.4Avg total
37.4Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.834.472.3+3.467%-
Last 30 at home (12)40.529.670.1+10.992%-
Last 30 away (18)36.137.773.7-1.650%-
Last 10 (10)37.440.077.4-2.640%-
Last 5 (5)37.040.677.6-3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)35.046.581.5-11.50%-
vs Similar (9)34.136.971.0-2.856%-
vs Weaker (17)39.031.970.9+7.176%-
This opponent (North Dakota St) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North Dakota StLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Dakota
#312
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A22/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#146
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H27/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#146
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H08/03
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A04/11
NCAA
UC Davis
#139
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A06/11
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H12/11
NCAA
St. Scholastica Saints
#711
W
50-20
50
20
+30
H13/11
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H18/11
NCAA
Jamestown Jimmies
#404
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H20/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
35-21
35
21
+14
A26/11
NCAA
70.3Avg total
38.7Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.232.772.9+7.673%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.433.074.4+8.471%-
Last 30 away (13)38.732.270.9+6.577%-
Last 10 (10)38.731.670.3+7.180%-
Last 5 (5)41.831.273.0+10.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)34.935.670.4-0.743%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)40.932.773.6+8.180%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Arkansas State wins
0
North Dakota St wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/25HJacksonville State74-63
22/11/25ASMU Mustangs69-100
20/11/25ASt. Marys (CA)72-85
16/11/25HChristian Brothers Buccaneers95-67
12/11/25AMissouri State86-85
08/11/25AStephen F. Austin65-90
04/11/25AOhio89-85
23/03/25ANorth Texas63-65
19/03/25HSt. Louis Billikens103-78
10/03/25ATroy81-94
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/11/25AJacksonville State56-43
20/11/25HJamestown Jimmies82-67
18/11/25HSouthern Illinois92-85
13/11/25HSt. Scholastica Saints111-38
12/11/25HCS Northridge90-68
06/11/25AUC Davis68-80
04/11/25AOregon State65-67
08/03/25HSouth Dakota Coyotes84-85
27/02/25HSouth Dakota Coyotes82-78
22/02/25ANorth Dakota77-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW57%
HomeWW100%
AwayWLWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games725
Win %57%100%40%
Points / game78.684.576.2
Allowed / game82.165.089.0
Point differential-3.6+19.5-12.8
Avg total160.7149.5165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
North Dakota St
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW71%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %71%100%33%
Points / game80.693.863.0
Allowed / game64.064.563.3
Point differential+16.6+29.2-0.3
Avg total144.6158.2126.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%75%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 South Alabama75271%74.667.9+6.7
2 Marshall75271%81.679.7+1.9
3 Texas State96367%73.762.8+10.9
4 James Madison85362%78.175.6+2.5
5 Southern Miss74357%80.771.7+9.0
6 Coastal Carolina74357%76.068.0+8.0
7 Arkansas State74357%78.682.1-3.6
8 Troy95456%88.081.7+6.3
9 Appalachian State84450%69.670.0-0.4
10 Old Dominion83538%75.176.5-1.4
11 Georgia Southern83538%79.883.1-3.4
12 Louisiana Monroe71614%71.082.0-11.0
13 Louisiana Lafayette71614%58.775.9-17.1
14 Georgia State81712%63.174.9-11.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Summit League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Dakota St75271%80.664.0+16.6
2 St. Thomas (Minn.)85362%75.675.0+0.6
3 South Dakota Coyotes74357%85.481.9+3.6
4 South Dakota St.84450%71.664.9+6.8
5 North Dakota83538%77.176.1+1.0
6 Oral Roberts93633%77.681.3-3.8
7 Denver72529%73.187.1-14.0
8 Nebraska O.82625%77.485.1-7.8
9 UMKC61517%69.385.3-16.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Arkansas State39311585
North Dakota St35351080
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