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Troy vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 10 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 94-81
41-43 53-38
Position#68
Record22-10
FormWWWWW
Points / game73.2
Allowed / game64.9
Troy 🏆
USA
vs
Position#54
Record24-9
FormWWWWW
Points / game79.1
Allowed / game69.4
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Troy v Arkansas State
30 Jan 2027
TROY v ARKA
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
TROY99
ARKA74
10 Mar 2025
TROY94
ARKA81
11 Jan 2025
TROY78
ARKA84
15 Feb 2024
TROY71
ARKA82
02 Mar 2023
TROY63
ARKA59
07 Jan 2023
TROY66
ARKA54
10 Feb 2022
TROY79
ARKA77
25 Jan 2020
TROY62
ARKA78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison
#110
L
61-64
61
64
-3
A06/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
62-69
62
69
-7
A08/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
74-56
74
56
+18
A13/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#54
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A16/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
L
69-72
69
72
-3
H21/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
83-66
83
66
+17
H22/02
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
74-69
74
69
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
70-58
70
58
+12
A01/03
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
75-59
75
59
+16
H09/03
NCAA
James Madison
#110
W
79-60
79
60
+19
A10/03
NCAA
1H
2H
28-32
33-32
29-32
33-37
29-20
45-36
30-34
41-36
38-29
31-43
33-33
50-33
36-37
38-32
32-26
38-32
36-18
39-41
40-23
39-37
136.1Avg total
71.8Scored
64.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)73.264.9138.2+8.369%
Season at home (16)79.566.1145.6+13.475%
Season away (16)67.063.8130.8+3.262%
Last 10 (10)71.864.3136.1+7.570%
Last 5 (5)76.262.4138.6+13.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)42.062.0104.0-20.00%
vs Similar ◀ (9)64.067.4131.4-3.444%
vs Weaker (19)77.764.3142.0+13.579%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A06/02
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
75-76
75
76
-1
A08/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
101-67
101
67
+34
H13/02
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
70-71
70
71
-1
H16/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
95-70
95
70
+25
H22/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
83-64
83
64
+19
A27/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
94-67
94
67
+27
A01/03
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H08/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
74-71
74
71
+3
A09/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-29
37-48
39-36
36-40
55-36
46-31
34-30
36-41
21-25
35-35
50-29
45-41
44-28
39-36
41-28
53-39
39-36
38-38
37-34
37-37
149.4Avg total
79.7Scored
69.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)79.169.4148.5+9.773%
Season at home (18)78.565.8144.3+12.778%
Season away (15)79.973.8153.7+6.167%
Last 10 (10)79.769.7149.4+10.060%
Last 5 (5)84.669.2153.8+15.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (8)75.574.1149.6+1.450%
vs Weaker (21)79.367.2146.5+12.081%
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: +8.4+8.42nd half2nd half: +2.8+2.82nd half: +1.6+1.6
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: +8.4+8.42nd half2nd half: +2.8+2.82nd half: +1.6+1.6
TroyArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison
#110
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A06/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A08/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
29-20
29
20
+9
A13/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#54
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A16/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H21/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H22/02
NCAA
Texas State
#207
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A26/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
32-26
32
26
+6
A01/03
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
36-18
36
18
+18
H09/03
NCAA
James Madison
#110
W
40-23
40
23
+17
A10/03
NCAA
61.5Avg total
33.1Scored
28.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.030.165.1+5.067%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.729.370.0+11.387%-
Last 30 away (15)29.430.860.2-1.447%-
Last 10 (10)33.128.461.5+4.750%-
Last 5 (5)35.427.462.8+8.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)11.033.044.0-22.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)28.732.661.2-3.944%-
vs Weaker (19)38.629.367.9+9.479%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A06/02
NCAA
Kent State
#74
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A08/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
55-36
55
36
+19
H13/02
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H16/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
21-25
21
25
-4
H20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
50-29
50
29
+21
H22/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
44-28
44
28
+16
A27/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A01/03
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H08/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A09/03
NCAA
70.6Avg total
39.5Scored
31.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.331.870.0+6.573%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.028.867.8+10.275%-
Last 30 away (14)37.435.172.6+2.371%-
Last 10 (10)39.531.170.6+8.490%-
Last 5 (5)42.231.073.2+11.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (8)33.236.469.6-3.150%-
vs Weaker (21)39.430.469.8+9.081%-
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Troy wins
5
Arkansas State wins
DateGameScore
16/02/25Arkansas State v Troy70-71
11/01/25Troy v Arkansas State78-84
23/02/24Arkansas State v Troy79-71
16/02/24Troy v Arkansas State71-82
02/03/23Troy v Arkansas State63-59
17/02/23Arkansas State v Troy62-67
07/01/23Troy v Arkansas State66-54
11/02/22Troy v Arkansas State79-77
25/01/20Troy v Arkansas State62-78
11/01/20Arkansas State v Troy76-68 OT
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/25AJames Madison79-60
09/03/25HOld Dominion75-59
01/03/25ASouthern Miss70-58
26/02/25ATexas State74-69
22/02/25HCoastal Carolina83-66
21/02/25HLouisiana Lafayette69-72
16/02/25AArkansas State71-70
13/02/25ALouisiana Lafayette74-56
08/02/25AMiami (Ohio)62-69
06/02/25AJames Madison61-64
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/25ASouth Alabama74-71
08/03/25HMarshall77-74
01/03/25ALouisiana Monroe94-67
27/02/25ALouisiana Lafayette83-64
22/02/25HLouisiana Monroe95-70
20/02/25HSouth Alabama56-60
16/02/25HTroy70-71
13/02/25HSouthern Miss101-67
08/02/25AKent State75-76
06/02/25AMarshall72-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW69%
HomeWWLWW75%
AwayWWWWW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %69%75%62%
Points / game73.279.567.0
Allowed / game64.966.163.8
Point differential+8.3+13.4+3.2
Avg total138.2145.6130.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%62%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)0% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW73%
HomeWLLWW78%
AwayLLWWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331815
Win %73%78%67%
Points / game79.178.579.9
Allowed / game69.465.873.8
Point differential+9.7+12.7+6.1
Avg total148.5144.3153.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%56%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)57% (7)40% (5)
Overtime %6%6%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State3324973%79.169.4+9.7
2 Troy32221069%73.264.9+8.3
3 South Alabama32211166%72.964.6+8.3
4 James Madison32201262%73.970.5+3.4
5 Marshall33201361%75.771.7+4.0
6 Appalachian State31171455%67.863.5+4.3
7 Georgia Southern33171652%74.275.9-1.7
8 Texas State32161650%76.273.3+2.9
9 Old Dominion35152043%67.971.5-3.6
10 Georgia State33141942%75.178.3-3.2
11 Louisiana Lafayette33122136%65.473.0-7.6
12 Southern Miss33112233%71.376.0-4.7
13 Coastal Carolina32102231%66.871.1-4.3
14 Louisiana Monroe3272522%68.975.5-6.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Troy415394
Arkansas State433881
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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