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St. Marys (CA) vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 20 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 85-72
47-39 38-33
Position#16
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game85.2
Allowed / game58.2
vs
Position#98
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game81.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

St. Marys (CA) winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

St. Marys (CA)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#183
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#104
W
74-64
74
64
+10
H02/03
NCAA
Pepperdine
#310
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H11/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#37
L
51-58
51
58
-7
H12/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#121
W
59-56
59
56
+3
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#34
L
66-80
66
80
-14
A23/03
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
W
84-58
84
58
+26
H04/11
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
W
87-66
87
66
+21
H08/11
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
90-60
90
60
+30
H12/11
NCAA
North Texas
#138
W
80-49
80
49
+31
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-19
34-36
34-33
40-31
39-29
35-30
31-33
20-25
22-29
37-27
29-42
37-38
35-25
49-33
48-33
39-33
45-27
45-33
47-17
33-32
132.8Avg total
72.3Scored
60.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)85.258.2143.5+27.0100%
Season at home (4)85.258.2143.5+27.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.360.5132.8+11.880%
Last 5 (5)81.462.6144.0+18.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)62.361.0123.3+1.367%
vs Similar (6)70.566.3136.8+4.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)75.358.2133.5+17.095%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
94-67
94
67
+27
A01/03
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H08/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
74-71
74
71
+3
A09/03
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
81-94
81
94
-13
A10/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#31
W
103-78
103
78
+25
H19/03
NIT
North Texas
#3
L
63-65
63
65
-2
A23/03
NIT
Ohio
#241
W
89-85
89
85
+4
A04/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
95-67
95
67
+28
H16/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
41-28
0-0
53-39
0-0
39-36
0-0
38-38
0-0
37-34
0-0
37-37
0-0
43-41
0-0
38-53
0-0
50-37
0-0
53-41
0-0
33-34
0-0
30-31
0-0
32-39
0-0
57-46
0-0
31-46
0-0
34-44
0-0
33-46
0-0
53-39
0-0
45-28
0-0
50-39
160.3Avg total
82.7Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.881.8165.5+2.075%
Season at home (1)95.067.0162.0+28.0100%
Season away (3)80.086.7166.7-6.767%
Last 10 (10)82.777.6160.3+5.170%
Last 5 (5)79.678.4158.0+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)65.090.0155.0-25.00%
vs Similar (8)75.076.9151.9-1.938%
vs Weaker (19)82.168.9151.0+13.184%
This opponent (St. Marys (CA)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +1.5+1.52nd half2nd half: +5.1+5.12nd half: +3.6+3.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +1.5+1.52nd half2nd half: +5.1+5.12nd half: +3.6+3.6
St. Marys (CA)Arkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
St. Marys (CA)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#183
W
24-19
24
19
+5
A28/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#104
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H02/03
NCAA
Pepperdine
#310
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H11/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#37
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H12/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#121
L
22-29
22
29
-7
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#34
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A23/03
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
W
35-25
35
25
+10
H04/11
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H08/11
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H12/11
NCAA
North Texas
#138
W
47-17
47
17
+30
H15/11
NCAA
64.1Avg total
35.4Scored
28.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.327.461.7+7.080%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.727.863.4+7.983%-
Last 30 away (12)32.326.859.1+5.675%-
Last 10 (10)35.428.764.1+6.770%-
Last 5 (5)40.828.869.6+12.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.030.766.7+5.367%-
vs Similar (6)30.032.062.0-2.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)35.325.660.9+9.890%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A01/03
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H08/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A09/03
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A10/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#31
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H19/03
NIT
North Texas
#3
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A23/03
NIT
Ohio
#241
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A04/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H16/11
NCAA
75.3Avg total
38.4Scored
36.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.133.972.1+4.267%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.229.570.8+11.785%-
Last 30 away (17)35.837.373.1-1.553%-
Last 10 (10)38.436.975.3+1.560%-
Last 5 (5)34.838.673.4-3.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)31.046.077.0-15.00%-
vs Similar (8)33.437.971.2-4.550%-
vs Weaker (19)39.531.871.3+7.774%-
This opponent (St. Marys (CA)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
St. Marys (CA) wins
0
Arkansas State wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/25HNorth Texas80-49
12/11/25HOhio90-60
08/11/25HChattanooga Mocs87-66
04/11/25HSt. Thomas (Minn.)84-58
23/03/25AAlabama66-80
21/03/25HVanderbilt59-56
12/03/25HGonzaga51-58
11/03/25HPepperdine74-59
02/03/25HOregon State74-64
28/02/25ALoyola Marymount58-55
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/25HChristian Brothers Buccaneers95-67
12/11/25AMissouri State86-85
08/11/25AStephen F. Austin65-90
04/11/25AOhio89-85
23/03/25ANorth Texas63-65
19/03/25HSt. Louis Billikens103-78
10/03/25ATroy81-94
09/03/25ASouth Alabama74-71
08/03/25HMarshall77-74
01/03/25ALouisiana Monroe94-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

St. Marys (CA)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game85.285.2-
Allowed / game58.258.2-
Point differential+27.0+27.0-
Avg total143.5143.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %75%100%67%
Points / game83.895.080.0
Allowed / game81.867.086.7
Point differential+2.0+28.0-6.7
Avg total165.5162.0166.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Gonzaga550100%94.057.8+36.2
2 St. Marys (CA)440100%85.258.2+27.0
3 Loyola Marymount660100%87.363.8+23.5
4 Santa Clara550100%82.265.2+17.0
5 San Francisco54180%81.465.4+16.0
6 Seattle43175%83.071.8+11.2
7 Pacific43175%78.568.2+10.2
8 San Diego Toreros43175%78.068.0+10.0
9 Portland43175%81.578.2+3.2
10 Oregon State43175%71.072.2-1.2
11 Pepperdine53260%87.079.4+7.6
12 Washington State41325%75.080.0-5.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 South Alabama65183%75.065.8+9.2
2 Arkansas State43175%83.881.8+2.0
3 Marshall43175%84.284.5-0.2
4 Troy64267%90.781.5+9.2
5 Texas State64267%75.567.0+8.5
6 Appalachian State53260%74.466.8+7.6
7 Georgia Southern53260%88.284.6+3.6
8 Coastal Carolina42250%82.865.0+17.8
9 James Madison63350%76.276.0+0.2
10 Southern Miss52340%80.671.8+8.8
11 Old Dominion52340%73.478.4-5.0
12 Georgia State51420%65.267.8-2.6
13 Louisiana Monroe51420%72.478.8-6.4
14 Louisiana Lafayette51420%62.474.8-12.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
St. Marys (CA)473885
Arkansas State393372
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