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Atenas vs Penarol Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 16 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#3
Record3-1
FormLLWWL
Points / game84.8
Allowed / game81.2
vs
Position#2
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game73.8
ArgentinaLiga A· Polideportivo Carlos Cerutti
Other2026-27
Meetings · Atenas v Penarol
16 Jan 2027
ATEN v PENA
upcoming
31 Mar 2026
ATEN95
PENA85
20 Dec 2024
ATEN82
PENA71
28 Oct 2022
ATEN56
PENA82
10 Nov 2021
ATEN85
PENA102
18 Dec 2020
ATEN77
PENA83
10 Mar 2020
ATEN90
PENA71
16 Apr 2019
ATEN94
PENA101
05 Apr 2018
ATEN74
PENA71
27 Jan 2017
ATEN85
PENA77
10 Feb 2016
ATEN78
PENA84
18 Apr 2015
ATEN88
PENA77
06 Feb 2014
ATEN83
PENA86
11 Dec 2012
ATEN106
PENA87
20 Nov 2011
ATEN59
PENA75
01 Jun 2011
ATEN59
PENA86
30 May 2011
ATEN73
PENA69
14 Jan 2011
ATEN90
PENA73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atenas win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Atenas
5.5out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Above their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 80.0
72.4▼ 7.6
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 82.8
78.6▼ 4.2
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 55%
49%▼ 5%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.2
11.8▼ 2.4
🔥 Form · Penarol
5.0out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 81.7
80.2▼ 1.5
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 80.0
75.8▼ 4.2
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 58%
55%▼ 2%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.5
13.0▼ 1.5
AtenasArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Argentino
#19
L
53-61
53
61
-8
A10/05
Liga A
Argentino
#19
L
77-88
77
88
-11
A13/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
77-83
77
83
-6
A06/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#6
W
91-87
91
87
+4
A08/10
Liga A
Ferro
#14
W
91-86
91
86
+5
H13/10
Liga A
Malvin
#8
L
66-77
66
77
-11
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#7
L
77-90
77
90
-13
H22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Lanus
#12
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H24/10
Liga A
Union Atletica
#10
W
82-73
82
73
+9
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#4
L
57-84
57
84
-27
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-15
23-18
8-12
9-16
25-17
20-26
14-21
18-24
21-16
23-27
13-23
20-17
21-17
17-24
29-25
24-21
16-20
24-28
24-18
27-20
8-20
19-24
19-15
20-18
23-24
18-25
11-24
25-17
25-20
8-19
27-16
20-14
28-17
25-20
19-12
10-24
12-27
19-21
9-11
17-25
154.9Avg total
75.1Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)84.881.2166.0+3.575%
Season at home (2)85.577.5163.0+8.0100%
Season away (2)84.085.0169.0-1.050%
Last 10 (10)75.179.8154.9-4.740%
Last 5 (5)72.478.6151.0-6.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)79.686.3165.9-6.727%
vs Similar (8)79.078.9157.9+0.162%
vs Weaker (7)83.478.9162.3+4.657%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obera TC
#5
L
81-84
81
84
-3
A17/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
W
87-80
87
80
+7
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
91-97
91
97
-6
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
78-80
78
80
-2
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
W
87-75
87
75
+12
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
68-84
68
84
-16
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#5
W
62-57
62
57
+5
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
84-77
84
77
+7
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#16
W
92-85
92
85
+7
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
95-76
95
76
+19
H28/10
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-26
17-21
21-15
25-22
25-25
22-22
23-18
17-15
30-29
13-24
21-17
27-27
25-21
18-29
20-12
15-18
22-20
18-23
25-21
22-11
19-22
23-26
10-22
16-14
17-14
13-15
14-6
18-22
18-26
27-17
26-23
13-11
28-22
17-22
26-18
21-23
23-11
25-21
24-25
23-19
162.0Avg total
82.5Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.273.8157.0+9.5100%
Season at home (2)78.566.5145.0+12.0100%
Season away (2)88.081.0169.0+7.0100%
Last 10 (10)82.579.5162.0+3.060%
Last 5 (5)80.275.8156.0+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)71.581.0152.5-9.550%
vs Similar (20)83.081.3164.4+1.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)82.176.9159.0+5.262%
This opponent (Atenas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +1.5+1.5
AtenasPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AtenasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Argentino
#19
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A10/05
Liga A
Argentino
#19
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A13/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A06/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A08/10
Liga A
Ferro
#14
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H13/10
Liga A
Malvin
#8
L
27-44
27
44
-17
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#7
L
41-49
41
49
-8
H22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Lanus
#12
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H24/10
Liga A
Union Atletica
#10
W
53-37
53
37
+16
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#4
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
81.3Avg total
38.8Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.941.081.9-0.147%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.640.380.9+0.340%-
Last 30 away (15)41.341.782.9-0.453%-
Last 10 (10)38.842.581.3-3.740%-
Last 5 (5)37.043.480.4-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)41.743.184.8-1.340%-
vs Similar (8)39.137.676.8+1.550%-
vs Weaker (7)41.340.481.7+0.957%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obera TC
#5
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A17/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#5
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#16
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H28/10
Liga A
85.4Avg total
41.8Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.142.182.2-2.040%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.839.577.3-1.736%-
Last 30 away (16)42.144.486.5-2.244%-
Last 10 (10)41.843.685.4-1.840%-
Last 5 (5)42.039.281.2+2.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.043.086.0+0.050%-
vs Similar (20)40.443.183.5-2.835%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)38.839.278.0-0.550%-
This opponent (Atenas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Atenastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atenas: 74.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.220.6
52.6%
54.4%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.87.7
29.8%
32.6%23.1
🏀 Free throws14.810.4
70.3%
72.7%10.4
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.9
56.2%
54.4%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.08.4
32.3%
32.6%25.2
🏀 Free throws25.617.5
68.4%
72.7%17.5
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Atenas
LWWLLWWLLL
Penarol
WWWWLWLLWL
#3
League position
#2
-5.8
Net rating
+4.1
94.9
Offensive rating
113.4
100.8
Defensive rating
109.3
49.5%
Effective FG%
52.9%
48.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
6.3%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.42
29.8%
3-point %
32.3%
43.8%
Assist %
48.4%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence94.9 · 113.4Defence100.8 · 109.3Shooting49.5% · 52.9%3-point %29.8% · 32.3%Ball care6.3% · 0.0%Free throws0.23 · 0.42Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Atenas   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Atenas wins
8
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
01/04/26Atenas v Penarol95-85
13/12/25Penarol v Atenas87-67
09/02/25Penarol v Atenas81-66
21/12/24Atenas v Penarol82-71
09/02/23Penarol v Atenas103-84
28/10/22Atenas v Penarol56-82
19/01/22Penarol v Atenas86-79
11/11/21Atenas v Penarol85-102
15/03/21Penarol v Atenas73-72
18/12/20Atenas v Penarol77-83
Atenaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HAguada57-84
26/10/26AUnion Atletica82-73
24/10/26HLanus80-69
22/10/26HNacional77-90
20/10/26AMalvin66-77
13/10/26HFerro91-86
08/10/26AOlimpico91-87
06/10/26AQuimsa77-83
13/05/26AArgentino77-88
10/05/26AArgentino53-61
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26HSan Martin95-76
17/10/26ASan Lorenzo92-85
14/10/26ALanus84-77
30/09/26HGimnasia62-57
03/05/26HFerro68-84
01/05/26HFerro87-75
26/04/26AFerro78-80
24/04/26AFerro91-97
20/04/26HFerro87-80
17/04/26AObera TC81-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Atenas
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game84.885.584.0
Allowed / game81.277.585.0
Point differential+3.5+8.0-1.0
Avg total166.0163.0169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game83.278.588.0
Allowed / game73.866.581.0
Point differential+9.5+12.0+7.0
Avg total157.0145.0169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Quimsa550100%85.674.0+11.6
2 Penarol440100%83.273.8+9.5
3 Atenas43175%84.881.2+3.5
4 Instituto de Cordoba43175%79.078.2+0.8
5 Gimnasia75271%78.975.1+3.7
6 Olimpico53260%88.683.8+4.8
7 Argentino53260%80.678.8+1.8
8 Independiente de Oliva21150%100.095.0+5.0
9 Boca Juniors63350%88.285.0+3.2
10 Platense63350%80.380.3+0.0
11 Racing de Chivilcoy63350%80.382.5-2.2
12 Lanus83538%75.879.0-3.2
13 La Union31233%81.384.0-2.7
14 Ferro62433%82.085.5-3.5
15 Regatas41325%74.878.2-3.5
16 San Lorenzo41325%76.280.8-4.5
17 Obera TC51420%73.481.2-7.8
18 San Martin6060%84.895.2-10.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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