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Penarol vs Ferro Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 03 May 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 68-84
19-22 23-26 10-22 16-14
Position#11
Record20-19
FormLWLLW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game81.6
vs
Ferro 🏆
Argentina
Position#6
Record23-16
FormWLWWL
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game82.2
ArgentinaLiga A· Polideportivo Islas Malvinas
Other2025-26
Meetings · Penarol v Ferro
12 Apr 2027
PENA v FERR
upcoming
10 Jan 2027
PENA v FERR
upcoming
02 May 2026
PENA68
FERR84
30 Apr 2026
PENA87
FERR75
19 Apr 2026
PENA87
FERR80
27 Apr 2025
PENA73
FERR75
12 May 2024
PENA70
FERR86
26 Nov 2022
PENA69
FERR64
01 Dec 2021
PENA80
FERR89
10 Oct 2021
PENA97
FERR101
08 Jan 2021
PENA111
FERR101
18 Mar 2020
PENA v FERR
upcoming
04 Mar 2019
PENA66
FERR88
26 Mar 2018
PENA96
FERR73
01 Feb 2017
PENA73
FERR75
18 Oct 2016
PENA76
FERR75
18 Mar 2016
PENA70
FERR75
25 Nov 2015
PENA88
FERR74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ferro winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Independiente de Oliva
#8
W
107-102
107
102
+5
A28/03
Liga A
Instituto de Cordoba
#9
W
83-68
83
68
+15
A29/03
Liga A
Atenas
#18
L
85-95
85
95
-10
A01/04
Liga A
Union De Santa Fe
#15
W
85-83
85
83
+2
H05/04
Liga A
La Union
#10
L
85-91
85
91
-6
A15/04
Liga A
Obera TC
#5
L
81-84
81
84
-3
A17/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
W
87-80
87
80
+7
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
91-97
91
97
-6
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
78-80
78
80
-2
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
W
87-75
87
75
+12
H01/05
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-22
26-31
27-20
23-29
13-19
31-14
18-14
21-21
22-31
14-23
27-17
22-24
15-6
14-26
29-17
27-34
22-22
20-22
29-27
14-20
18-26
17-21
21-15
25-22
25-25
22-22
23-18
17-15
30-29
13-24
21-17
27-27
25-21
18-29
20-12
15-18
22-20
18-23
25-21
22-11
172.4Avg total
86.9Scored
85.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)81.781.6163.3+0.251%
Season at home (19)80.577.6158.1+2.968%
Season away (20)83.085.4168.4-2.535%
Last 10 (10)86.985.5172.4+1.450%
Last 5 (5)84.883.2168.0+1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)70.085.0155.0-15.033%
vs Similar ◀ (23)83.281.0164.3+2.252%
vs Weaker (4)81.080.0161.0+1.025%
This opponent (Ferro) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FerroArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Martin
#12
L
65-71
65
71
-6
A21/03
Liga A
Regatas
#4
L
70-77
70
77
-7
A24/03
Liga A
Argentino
#19
W
100-74
100
74
+26
H05/04
Liga A
Obera TC
#5
L
75-76
75
76
-1
H08/04
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
W
90-81
90
81
+9
A11/04
Liga A
Union De Santa Fe
#15
W
81-74
81
74
+7
A16/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
L
80-87
80
87
-7
A20/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
W
97-91
97
91
+6
H24/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
W
80-78
80
78
+2
H26/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
L
75-87
75
87
-12
A01/05
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-12
16-15
17-18
16-26
27-20
17-20
12-17
14-20
30-21
29-15
25-19
16-19
22-14
16-24
19-14
18-24
23-21
25-21
20-29
22-10
21-14
16-27
20-16
24-17
25-25
22-22
18-23
15-17
29-30
24-13
17-21
27-27
21-25
29-18
12-20
18-15
20-22
23-18
21-25
11-22
160.9Avg total
81.3Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)83.782.2165.9+1.559%
Season at home (20)87.279.8167.1+7.475%
Season away (19)80.084.7164.7-4.742%
Last 10 (10)81.379.6160.9+1.750%
Last 5 (5)82.683.4166.0-0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)81.0103.5184.5-22.50%
vs Similar ◀ (24)82.281.7164.0+0.550%
vs Weaker (4)88.081.5169.5+6.575%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: -4.2-4.2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: +6.2+6.2Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: -1.6-1.6
PenarolFerro
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Independiente de Oliva
#8
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A28/03
Liga A
Instituto de Cordoba
#9
W
44-33
44
33
+11
A29/03
Liga A
Atenas
#18
L
36-54
36
54
-18
A01/04
Liga A
Union De Santa Fe
#15
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H05/04
Liga A
La Union
#10
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A15/04
Liga A
Obera TC
#5
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A17/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H01/05
Liga A
87.2Avg total
41.6Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.142.582.6-2.533%-
Last 30 at home (13)37.340.878.1-3.523%-
Last 30 away (17)42.243.986.1-1.741%-
Last 10 (10)41.645.687.2-4.020%-
Last 5 (5)41.648.089.6-6.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)44.045.789.7-1.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (23)40.342.382.7-2.039%-
vs Weaker (4)35.541.577.0-6.00%-
This opponent (Ferro) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FerroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Martin
#12
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A21/03
Liga A
Regatas
#4
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A24/03
Liga A
Argentino
#19
W
59-36
59
36
+23
H05/04
Liga A
Obera TC
#5
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H08/04
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A11/04
Liga A
Union De Santa Fe
#15
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A16/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A20/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H24/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H26/04
Liga A
Penarol
#11
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A01/05
Liga A
84.8Avg total
45.1Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.241.585.7+2.757%-
Last 30 at home (17)46.039.885.8+6.265%-
Last 30 away (13)41.843.785.5-1.846%-
Last 10 (10)45.139.784.8+5.470%-
Last 5 (5)46.042.888.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)40.558.599.0-18.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (24)43.540.283.8+3.258%-
vs Weaker (4)50.240.290.5+10.075%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 86.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.3 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.620.2
56.7%
53.7%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.19.4
36.0%
32.9%28.2
🏀 Free throws26.818.3
68.3%
71.5%18.3
They take 61.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ferrotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ferro: 81.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.3 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.419.7
59.0%
53.7%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.310.1
31.3%
32.9%30.3
🏀 Free throws16.111.6
72.0%
71.5%11.6
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WLLWLLWLWW
Ferro
LWWLWWLWLL
#11
League position
#6
+1.9
Net rating
+2.4
116.0
Offensive rating
114.5
114.1
Defensive rating
112.1
55.6%
Effective FG%
53.0%
52.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.2%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.43
Free-throw rate
0.25
36.0%
3-point %
31.3%
53.0%
Assist %
58.7%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence116.0 · 114.5Defence114.1 · 112.1Shooting55.6% · 53.0%3-point %36.0% · 31.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.43 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Penarol   ■ Ferro
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Penarol wins
7
Ferro wins
DateGameScore
01/05/26Penarol v Ferro87-75
26/04/26Ferro v Penarol80-78
24/04/26Ferro v Penarol97-91
20/04/26Penarol v Ferro87-80
28/09/25Ferro v Penarol97-84
27/04/25Penarol v Ferro73-75
09/10/24Ferro v Penarol84-82 OT
13/05/24Penarol v Ferro70-86
14/11/23Ferro v Penarol80-73
19/01/23Ferro v Penarol88-102
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/05/26HFerro87-75
26/04/26AFerro78-80
24/04/26AFerro91-97
20/04/26HFerro87-80
17/04/26AObera TC81-84
15/04/26ALa Union85-91
05/04/26HUnion De Santa Fe85-83
01/04/26AAtenas85-95
29/03/26AInstituto de Cordoba83-68
28/03/26AIndependiente de Oliva107-102
Ferrolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/05/26APenarol75-87
26/04/26HPenarol80-78
24/04/26HPenarol97-91
20/04/26APenarol80-87
16/04/26AUnion De Santa Fe81-74
11/04/26ABoca Juniors90-81
08/04/26HObera TC75-76
05/04/26HArgentino100-74
24/03/26ARegatas70-77
21/03/26ASan Martin65-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga A 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW51%
HomeWLWWW68%
AwayLLLLL35%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391920
Win %51%68%35%
Points / game81.780.583.0
Allowed / game81.677.685.4
Point differential+0.2+2.9-2.5
Avg total163.3158.1168.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%21%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)75% (8)33% (6)
Overtime %3%0%5%
Ferro
Liga A 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL59%
HomeLWLWW75%
AwayLWWLL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392019
Win %59%75%42%
Points / game83.787.280.0
Allowed / game82.279.884.7
Point differential+1.5+7.4-4.7
Avg total165.9167.1164.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%45%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won54% (13)44% (9)75% (4)
Overtime %5%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Quimsa36241267%83.376.4+6.9
2 Gimnasia36241267%81.876.5+5.2
3 Boca Juniors39251464%82.478.8+3.6
4 Obera TC36231364%81.277.0+4.1
5 Regatas36231364%79.676.2+3.4
6 Ferro39231659%83.782.2+1.5
7 Obras Sanitarias40231757%80.979.1+1.8
8 Independiente de Oliva39221756%87.284.7+2.5
9 Instituto de Cordoba40221855%77.676.0+1.7
10 La Union39211854%81.580.4+1.1
11 Penarol39201951%81.781.6+0.2
12 San Martin39172244%76.577.8-1.3
13 Olimpico36152142%79.280.0-0.9
14 Racing de Chivilcoy36142239%79.481.8-2.4
15 Union De Santa Fe36132336%81.583.8-2.3
16 Platense36132336%82.385.2-2.9
17 San Lorenzo36132336%78.782.3-3.7
18 Atenas36132336%76.981.5-4.6
19 Argentino3672919%73.988.9-15.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol1923101668
Ferro2226221484
← all games of the day
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