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Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 03 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 00:30
Scheduled
Position#9
Record7-5
FormLLLWL
Points / game118.9
Allowed / game116.2
vs
Position#18
Record5-5
FormWLWWW
Points / game114.3
Allowed / game115.7
USANBA· State Farm Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Atlanta Hawks v Dallas Mavericks
02 Jan 2027
ATL v DAL
upcoming
10 Mar 2026
ATL124
DAL112
25 Nov 2024
ATL119
DAL129
26 Jan 2024
ATL143
DAL148
02 Apr 2023
ATL132
DAL130
21 Oct 2021
ATL113
DAL87
03 Feb 2021
ATL116
DAL122
22 Feb 2020
ATL111
DAL107
24 Oct 2018
ATL111
DAL104
23 Dec 2017
ATL112
DAL107
12 Oct 2017
ATL94
DAL108
01 Mar 2017
ATL100
DAL95
01 Feb 2016
ATL112
DAL97
18 Jul 2015
ATL91
DAL83
25 Feb 2015
ATL104
DAL87
29 Nov 2013
ATL88
DAL87
18 Mar 2013
ATL113
DAL127
20 Oct 2012
ATL110
DAL94
26 Apr 2012
ATL106
DAL89
20 Nov 2010
ATL93
DAL98
26 Feb 2010
ATL103
DAL111
19 Mar 2009
ATL95
DAL87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atlanta Hawks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Atlanta HawksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
119-117
119
117
+2
104avg 107
A10/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
113-110
113
110
+3
70avg 107
H12/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#18
W
135-111
135
111
+24
121avg 107
A17/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
W
132-125
132
125
+7
125avg 107
A21/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#24
W
128-81
128
81
+47
125avg 107
A23/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
114-121
114
121
-7
107avg 107
H25/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
110-120
110
120
-10
92avg 107
A27/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#19
L
117-129
117
129
-12
111avg 107
H28/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#10
W
114-111
114
111
+3
113avg 107
H30/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#16
L
99-121
99
121
-22
32avg 107
A31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-32
31-28
34-26
23-31
29-28
27-21
23-30
34-31
39-34
34-20
29-24
33-33
28-33
44-29
27-38
33-25
33-20
35-23
29-19
31-19
26-30
22-29
33-33
33-29
35-32
31-31
19-28
25-29
25-34
31-35
29-28
32-32
16-28
30-16
43-38
25-29
18-33
30-30
26-29
25-29
232.7Avg total
118.1Scored
114.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)118.9116.2235.1+2.858%
Season at home (5)116.2120.6236.8-4.440%
Season away (7)120.9113.0233.9+7.971%
Last 10 (10)118.1114.6232.7+3.560%
Last 5 (5)110.8120.4231.2-9.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)107.5117.5225.1-10.031%
vs Similar (9)118.4117.2235.7+1.256%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)129.6108.9238.5+20.8100%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#3
L
117-135
117
135
-18
74avg 102
H09/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
132-115
132
115
+17
105avg 102
A11/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#16
L
97-101
97
101
-4
50avg 102
H15/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#9
L
111-135
111
135
-24
88avg 102
H17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
110-128
110
128
-18
97avg 102
A22/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
121-105
121
105
+16
119avg 102
A23/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
106-122
106
122
-16
79avg 102
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#19
W
113-109
113
109
+4
111avg 102
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
120-96
120
96
+24
114avg 102
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 102
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-27
26-38
35-34
37-36
28-27
30-24
37-34
37-30
18-24
27-32
18-19
34-26
34-39
20-34
24-29
33-33
26-32
12-38
38-30
34-28
44-27
33-16
21-33
23-29
31-32
29-36
29-24
17-30
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
230.0Avg total
114.3Scored
115.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.3115.7230.0-1.450%
Season at home (6)111.2116.7227.8-5.533%
Season away (4)119.0114.2233.2+4.875%
Last 10 (10)114.3115.7230.0-1.450%
Last 5 (5)115.2108.6223.8+6.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)115.9127.6243.4-11.719%
vs Similar (9)114.4110.7225.1+3.867%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +5.3+5.3Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +3.2+3.2
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +5.3+5.3Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +3.2+3.2
Atlanta HawksDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Atlanta HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
62-60
62
60
+2
A10/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
56-49
56
49
+7
H12/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#18
W
73-54
73
54
+19
A17/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
W
72-62
72
62
+10
A21/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#24
W
68-43
68
43
+25
A23/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
48-59
48
59
-11
H25/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
66-63
66
63
+3
A27/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#19
L
56-69
56
69
-13
H28/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#10
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H30/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#16
L
48-63
48
63
-15
A31/10
NBA
116.1Avg total
59.5Scored
56.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.658.5118.1+1.260%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.557.8113.3-2.357%-
Last 30 away (16)63.259.1122.3+4.262%-
Last 10 (10)59.556.6116.1+2.970%-
Last 5 (5)52.859.6112.4-6.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)54.961.0115.9-6.138%-
vs Similar (9)59.659.8119.3-0.256%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)67.452.9120.2+14.5100%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#3
L
45-65
45
65
-20
H09/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A11/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#16
L
45-56
45
56
-11
H15/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#9
L
54-73
54
73
-19
H17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
38-70
38
70
-32
A22/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
77-43
77
43
+34
A23/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
60-68
60
68
-8
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#19
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
112.7Avg total
53.9Scored
58.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.061.0117.9-4.037%-
Last 30 at home (14)58.262.6120.8-4.436%-
Last 30 away (16)55.959.6115.4-3.738%-
Last 10 (10)53.958.8112.7-4.940%-
Last 5 (5)59.854.6114.4+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)55.463.1118.5-7.824%-
vs Similar (9)60.755.9116.6+4.867%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Atlanta Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atlanta Hawks: 117.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.726.9
53.1%
54.0%53.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.314.7
33.9%
34.8%44.1
🏀 Free throws25.219.6
77.8%
76.3%19.6
They take 94.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 117.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.928.6
57.3%
54.0%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.7
35.3%
34.8%41.1
🏀 Free throws24.119.2
79.7%
76.3%19.2
They take 88.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Atlanta Hawks
LWLLLWWWWW
Dallas Mavericks
WWWLWLLLWL
#9
League position
#18
-4.1
Net rating
-1.6
105.1
Offensive rating
104.8
109.3
Defensive rating
106.4
52.1%
Effective FG%
55.4%
57.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.5%
12.7%
Turnover %
15.1%
25.6%
Off. rebound %
22.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
33.9%
3-point %
35.3%
70.2%
Assist %
64.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.1 · 104.8Defence109.3 · 106.4Shooting52.1% · 55.4%3-point %33.9% · 35.3%Ball care12.7% · 15.1%Off. rebounds25.6% · 22.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Atlanta Hawks   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Atlanta Hawks wins
5
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans99-121
30/10/26HCleveland Cavaliers114-111
28/10/26HMiami Heat117-129
27/10/26AHouston Rockets110-120
25/10/26HHouston Rockets114-121
23/10/26ACharlotte Hornets128-81
21/10/26AOrlando Magic132-125
17/10/26ADallas Mavericks135-111
12/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder113-110
10/10/26AIndiana Pacers119-117
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109
25/10/26HSan Antonio Spurs106-122
23/10/26AIndiana Pacers121-105
22/10/26AHouston Rockets110-128
17/10/26HAtlanta Hawks111-135
15/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans97-101
11/10/26AHouston Rockets132-115
09/10/26HHouston Rockets117-135

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL58%
HomeLWLLW40%
AwayWWWLL71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %58%40%71%
Points / game118.9116.2120.9
Allowed / game116.2120.6113.0
Point differential+2.8-4.4+7.9
Avg total235.1236.8233.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW50%
HomeLLLWW33%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %50%33%75%
Points / game114.3111.2119.0
Allowed / game115.7116.7114.2
Point differential-1.4-5.5+4.8
Avg total230.0227.8233.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%17%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Memphis Grizzlies109190%119.7107.9+11.8
2 Boston Celtics98189%123.4110.0+13.4
3 Houston Rockets108280%121.1109.6+11.5
4 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
5 Portland Trail Blazers86275%119.2111.2+8.0
6 Philadelphia 76ers117464%110.5110.4+0.1
7 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
8 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
9 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.9116.2+2.8
10 Cleveland Cavaliers95456%119.3117.4+1.9
11 Orlando Magic95456%116.0117.8-1.8
12 San Antonio Spurs116555%116.0109.5+6.5
13 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
14 Minnesota Timberwolves137654%118.2113.1+5.2
15 Toronto Raptors105550%119.6111.5+8.1
16 New Orleans Pelicans105550%116.0114.8+1.2
17 Washington Wizards105550%111.6111.3+0.3
18 Dallas Mavericks105550%114.3115.7-1.4
19 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
20 Oklahoma City Thunder115645%108.0111.5-3.5
21 Utah Jazz104640%110.5115.2-4.7
22 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
23 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
24 Charlotte Hornets114736%97.6108.1-10.5
25 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
26 Indiana Pacers103730%117.9119.2-1.3
27 New York Knicks113827%106.5115.2-8.6
28 Milwaukee Bucks113827%111.4123.3-11.9
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings110110%106.4123.5-17.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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