PythiaBasketballBETA
The EuroCup clash on 17 November 2026 pits Balkan against Ulm, with Ulm the clear favourite as the model rates them 76% to win, reflecting their 3-4 record and 87.6 points per game versus Balkan's 1-6 record and 67.4 points per game. Balkan has struggled all season, losing six of seven games, scoring 67.4 and allowing 80.6 per game, while at home they have gone 0-4, averaging 59.5 points and conceding 80.0. Their last five games show three wins and two losses, with a recent home loss to PAOK 56-79 and two away victories over Spartak Pleven and KK Bosna. Ulm, meanwhile, has won three of seven, scoring 87.6 and allowing 87.4 per game, and on the road they are 1-3, averaging 82.8 and conceding 84.8. Their recent five games include two wins and three losses, with a loss to BC Roma 78-83 and a defeat to Rostock 87-97. The only prior meeting ended with Ulm beating Balkan 98-84 on 30 September 2026. Pythia projects a 77-86 score, a total of 162.9, with a 5.5-point spread favouring Ulm and a 39% chance of the home team covering; the over line of 157.5 carries a 62% probability. The overtime probability is 4%. Balkan's last game was a 56-79 defeat to PAOK at home.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 67.4 | 80.6 | 148.0 | -13.1 | 14% |
| Season at home (4) | 59.5 | 80.0 | 139.5 | -20.5 | 0% |
| Season away (3) | 78.0 | 81.3 | 159.3 | -3.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.5 | 72.3 | 149.8 | +5.2 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.0 | 72.0 | 146.0 | +2.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 67.4 | 80.6 | 148.0 | -13.1 | 14% |
| vs Similar (1) | 79.0 | 78.0 | 157.0 | +1.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker (22) | 88.2 | 77.6 | 165.9 | +10.6 | 82% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 87.6 | 87.4 | 175.0 | +0.1 | 43% |
| Season at home (3) | 94.0 | 91.0 | 185.0 | +3.0 | 67% |
| Season away (4) | 82.8 | 84.8 | 167.5 | -2.0 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 85.7 | 88.5 | 174.2 | -2.8 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.8 | 81.8 | 164.6 | +1.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 82.3 | 91.2 | 173.5 | -8.8 | 17% |
| vs Similar (14) | 81.6 | 86.6 | 168.3 | -5.0 | 29% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 88.1 | 78.6 | 166.7 | +9.5 | 70% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.1 | 40.8 | 81.9 | +0.3 | 57% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.1 | 40.4 | 80.5 | -0.2 | 50% | 56% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 42.2 | 41.2 | 83.4 | +1.0 | 64% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.4 | 37.9 | 77.3 | +1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.0 | 41.6 | 80.6 | -2.6 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 32.4 | 42.9 | 75.3 | -10.4 | 29% | 29% |
| vs Similar (1) | 35.0 | 43.0 | 78.0 | -8.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Weaker (22) | 44.1 | 40.0 | 84.1 | +4.1 | 68% | 64% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.8 | 41.7 | 85.6 | +2.1 | 60% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 43.9 | 41.7 | 85.6 | +2.2 | 62% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (17) | 43.8 | 41.8 | 85.5 | +2.0 | 59% | 53% |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.8 | 45.6 | 89.4 | -1.8 | 40% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.8 | 44.2 | 86.0 | -2.4 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 40.7 | 47.5 | 88.2 | -6.8 | 33% | 67% |
| vs Similar (14) | 42.2 | 40.7 | 82.9 | +1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 48.0 | 39.7 | 87.7 | +8.3 | 90% | 60% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulm over 79.5 | 72.8% | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | - | - | +16.1pp |
| Over 153.5 | 70.9% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +12.0pp |
| Ulm (regulation) | 73.7% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +11.5pp |
| Ulm -1.5 | 73.9% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +10.4pp |
| Ulm win | 76.0% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +9.4pp |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 37.8 | 20.6 | 54.0% | 41.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.0 | 8.2 | 34.0% | 24.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 16.0 | 11.1 | 75.6% | 11.1 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.9 | 23.1 | 54.0% | 46.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.9 | 8.2 | 34.0% | 24.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.9 | 13.9 | 75.6% | 13.9 |
Balkan
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | PAOK | 56-79 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Spartak Pleven | 77-71 |
| 04/11/26 | A | KK Bosna | 78-69 |
| 30/10/26 | H | CSKA Sofia | 94-65 |
| 27/10/26 | H | Manresa | 65-76 |
| 23/10/26 | A | Yambol | 84-73 |
| 20/10/26 | H | Lietkabelis | 57-64 |
| 16/10/26 | H | Levski | 101-83 |
| 13/10/26 | A | BC Roma | 72-77 OT |
| 10/10/26 | A | Botev 2012 | 91-66 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | BC Roma | 78-83 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Rostock | 87-97 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Bahcesehir Kol. | 82-96 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Oldenburg | 81-65 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Lietkabelis | 86-68 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Alba Berlin | 82-98 |
| 21/10/26 | A | PAOK | 78-87 |
| 14/10/26 | H | KK Bosna | 102-93 |
| 10/10/26 | A | Vechta | 92-97 OT |
| 07/10/26 | A | Manresa | 89-101 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLWL | 14% |
| Home | LLLL | 0% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 14% | 0% | 33% |
| Points / game | 67.4 | 59.5 | 78.0 |
| Allowed / game | 80.6 | 80.0 | 81.3 |
| Point differential | -13.1 | -20.5 | -3.3 |
| Avg total | 148.0 | 139.5 | 159.3 |
| Over 157.5 | 29% | 25% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 14% | 0% | 33% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWLL | 43% |
| Home | WWL | 67% |
| Away | LLWL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Win % | 43% | 67% | 25% |
| Points / game | 87.6 | 94.0 | 82.8 |
| Allowed / game | 87.4 | 91.0 | 84.8 |
| Point differential | +0.1 | +3.0 | -2.0 |
| Avg total | 175.0 | 185.0 | 167.5 |
| Over 157.5 | 86% | 100% | 75% |
| Win by 10+ | 29% | 33% | 25% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hapoel Jerusalem | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 88.4 | 74.0 | +14.4 |
| 2 |  Basket Napoli | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 94.9 | 84.0 | +10.9 |
| 3 |  Bahcesehir Kol. | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 92.6 | 76.6 | +16.0 |
| 4 |  Aris | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 90.6 | 77.0 | +13.6 |
| 5 |  Tenerife | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 91.4 | 79.0 | +12.4 |
| 6 |  Tofas | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 91.7 | 82.9 | +8.9 |
| 7 |  PAOK | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 87.7 | 82.0 | +5.7 |
| 8 |  Manresa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 88.1 | 83.3 | +4.9 |
| 9 |  London Lions | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 81.1 | 75.3 | +5.9 |
| 10 |  Buducnost | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 88.4 | 84.4 | +4.0 |
| 11 | Maxima Roma | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 88.4 | 84.7 | +3.7 |
| 12 |  Le Mans | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 80.7 | 78.1 | +2.6 |
| 13 |  Chemnitz | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 87.9 | 85.4 | +2.4 |
| 14 |  Venezia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 86.3 | 80.6 | +5.7 |
| 15 | Ulm | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 87.6 | 87.4 | +0.1 |
| 16 |  Turk Telekom | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.6 | 80.9 | -0.3 |
| 17 |  Tortona | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.6 | 83.3 | -2.7 |
| 18 | BC Roma | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 87.0 | 90.6 | -3.6 |
| 19 |  Siauliai | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.0 | 86.3 | -6.3 |
| 20 |  Rigas Zelli | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 78.6 | 85.3 | -6.7 |
| 21 |  Lietkabelis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 73.7 | 81.7 | -8.0 |
| 22 |  Frankfurt | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 86.6 | 94.7 | -8.1 |
| 23 |  KK Bosna | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 79.9 | 81.9 | -2.0 |
| 24 |  JL Bourg | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 81.1 | 84.7 | -3.6 |
| 25 |  Cedevita Olimpija | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 74.9 | 79.0 | -4.1 |
| 26 |  Neptunas | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 84.7 | 90.3 | -5.6 |
| 27 |  Trento | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 82.1 | 89.0 | -6.9 |
| 28 |  Rostock | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 78.4 | 86.4 | -8.0 |
| 29 |  Cluj-Napoca | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 81.3 | 94.3 | -13.0 |
| 30 |  San Pablo Burgos | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 76.9 | 85.9 | -9.0 |
| 31 |  Slask Wroclaw | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 79.7 | 89.9 | -10.1 |
| 32 | Balkan | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 67.4 | 80.6 | -13.1 |
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