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Ballarat vs Waverley Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 May 2025
Tip-off: 09:30
Final 100-90
31-23 27-21 23-22 19-24
Position#5
Record3-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game85.4
Allowed / game88.8
vs
Position#13
Record3-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game89.5
Allowed / game94.0
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Ballarat v Waverley
03 May 2025
BALL100
WAVE90
20 May 2023
BALL95
WAVE108
13 Jul 2019
BALL77
WAVE90
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballarat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Waverley winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BallaratAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
A13/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
58-97
58
97
-39
A20/07
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#6
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H27/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
103-101
103
101
+2
A03/08
NBL1 South
Eltham
#2
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H10/08
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
109-75
109
75
+34
H29/03
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
72-98
72
98
-26
A05/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
94-88
94
88
+6
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
71-105
71
105
-34
A26/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-32
20-23
17-17
15-21
17-28
10-22
17-33
14-14
22-23
17-17
23-12
29-26
24-32
32-22
19-21
28-26
24-12
15-20
21-32
10-15
38-24
18-19
19-16
34-16
21-24
23-21
17-25
11-28
16-28
24-21
27-12
27-27
19-22
14-14
20-23
28-19
12-22
21-32
20-24
18-27
171.6Avg total
82.4Scored
89.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)85.488.8174.2-3.460%
Season at home (1)109.075.0184.0+34.0100%
Season away (4)79.592.2171.8-12.850%
Last 10 (10)82.489.2171.6-6.850%
Last 5 (5)85.488.8174.2-3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)83.491.6175.0-8.250%
vs Similar ◀ (6)86.884.3171.2+2.567%
vs Weaker (14)92.684.1176.7+8.471%
This opponent (Waverley) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WaverleyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
L
89-94
89
94
-5
A04/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
66-98
66
98
-32
H06/07
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#13
L
71-88
71
88
-17
A11/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
L
74-102
74
102
-28
A12/07
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H29/03
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
104-88
104
88
+16
H05/04
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
79-110
79
110
-31
A08/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
96-88
96
88
+8
H11/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
73-105
73
105
-32
A25/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
87-90
87
90
-3
H27/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-19
25-26
18-29
18-20
24-26
9-25
11-21
22-26
25-20
12-26
18-27
16-15
14-31
23-36
19-16
18-19
31-18
31-20
20-24
16-21
28-15
28-20
26-19
22-34
18-26
15-30
30-29
16-25
22-18
25-18
28-32
21-20
16-17
16-30
23-27
18-31
22-25
24-20
18-25
23-20
178.3Avg total
83.7Scored
94.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)89.594.0183.5-4.550%
Season at home (4)96.287.2183.5+9.075%
Season away (2)76.0107.5183.5-31.50%
Last 10 (10)83.794.6178.3-10.930%
Last 5 (5)87.896.2184.0-8.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)77.596.5174.0-19.012%
vs Similar ◀ (9)91.390.0181.3+1.367%
vs Weaker (13)93.886.8180.7+7.054%
This opponent (Ballarat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -4.1-4.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -4.1-4.1
BallaratWaverley
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
L
43-55
43
55
-12
A13/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
27-50
27
50
-23
A20/07
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#6
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H27/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A03/08
NBL1 South
Eltham
#2
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H10/08
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H29/03
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A05/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
33-54
33
54
-21
A26/04
NBL1 South
86.8Avg total
41.0Scored
45.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.843.788.4+1.150%-
Last 30 at home (13)46.139.585.5+6.662%-
Last 30 away (17)43.846.990.6-3.141%-
Last 10 (10)41.045.886.8-4.830%-
Last 5 (5)41.245.486.6-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)40.846.387.1-5.540%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)42.241.884.0+0.333%-
vs Weaker (14)48.742.691.3+6.164%-
This opponent (Waverley) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WaverleyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
W
53-45
53
45
+8
A04/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
33-51
33
51
-18
H06/07
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#13
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A11/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
L
37-67
37
67
-30
A12/07
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
62-38
62
38
+24
H29/03
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
56-35
56
35
+21
H05/04
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A08/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H11/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A25/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H27/04
NBL1 South
90.2Avg total
43.6Scored
46.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.946.191.0-1.153%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.743.289.9+3.462%-
Last 30 away (14)42.949.392.2-6.443%-
Last 10 (10)43.646.690.2-3.050%-
Last 5 (5)42.843.886.6-1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)38.048.986.9-10.912%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)48.845.494.2+3.378%-
vs Weaker (13)46.544.891.3+1.862%-
This opponent (Ballarat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Ballarat wins
3
Waverley wins
DateGameScore
16/06/24Waverley v Ballarat91-98
20/05/23Ballarat v Waverley95-108
22/05/22Waverley v Ballarat74-67
13/07/19Ballarat v Waverley77-90
Ballaratlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/04/25AEltham71-105
12/04/25AHobart Chargers81-78
11/04/25ANW Tasmania94-88
05/04/25AGeelong72-98
29/03/25HBendigo Braves109-75
10/08/24HEltham70-79
03/08/24ASandringham Sabres103-101
27/07/24HDandenong91-78
20/07/24AFrankston58-97
13/07/24AEltham75-93
Waverleylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/04/25HBendigo Braves87-90
25/04/25AMt Gambier73-105
11/04/25HGeelong96-88
08/04/25AKnox79-110
05/04/25HNW Tasmania104-88
29/03/25HNunawading98-83
12/07/24AGeelong74-102
11/07/24AMelbourne Tigers71-88
06/07/24HFrankston66-98
04/07/24AEltham89-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ballarat
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL60%
HomeW100%
AwayLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %60%100%50%
Points / game85.4109.079.5
Allowed / game88.875.092.2
Point differential-3.4+34.0-12.8
Avg total174.2184.0171.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Waverley
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL50%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %50%75%0%
Points / game89.596.276.0
Allowed / game94.087.2107.5
Point differential-4.5+9.0-31.5
Avg total183.5183.5183.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Mt Gambier65183%95.272.0+23.2
2 Knox65183%93.880.5+13.3
3 Casey Cavaliers64267%86.081.8+4.2
4 Hobart Chargers64267%83.380.3+3.0
5 Melbourne Tigers53260%84.074.8+9.2
6 Frankston53260%90.484.6+5.8
7 Ballarat53260%85.488.8-3.4
8 Kilsyth74357%83.683.1+0.4
9 NW Tasmania63350%88.583.7+4.8
10 Nunawading63350%83.888.0-4.2
11 Waverley63350%89.594.0-4.5
12 Bendigo Braves63350%84.890.0-5.2
13 Geelong73443%81.486.7-5.3
14 Diamond Valley73443%81.991.7-9.9
15 Eltham52340%88.481.8+6.6
16 Ringwood62433%87.785.5+2.2
17 Keilor Thunder72529%82.193.9-11.7
18 Sandringham Sabres82625%80.590.8-10.2
19 Dandenong61517%88.395.8-7.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ballarat31272319100
Waverley2321222490
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