Baskonia and Hapoel Tel-Aviv face off in the EuroLeague on 17 November 2026, a matchup that feels almost evenly matched as the odds show no clear favourite; the Pythia model gives Hapoel a 54% edge over Baskonia's 46%. Baskonia enters the game with a 1-10 record, averaging 79.9 points and conceding 91.9, while Hapoel sits at 6-4, scoring 92.1 and allowing 87.9, a stark contrast that hints at Hapoel's stronger offensive output. In recent form, Baskonia's last five games include two wins and three losses, with a 98-93 victory over Forca Lleida, whereas Hapoel's five-game stretch also shows two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 105-87 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv. Their head-to-head history is even, each winning once, the most recent encounter ending 118-109 in favour of Baskonia on 27 March 2026. The projected score is 88-89, with a total of 176.8 points; the home line is 6.5, and Pythia believes the home team covers 67% of the time, while the over on the 182.5 line has a 36% chance, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Hapoel can maintain its higher scoring average against a Baskonia side that has struggled defensively this season.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baskonia win
45.7%fair 2.19
Best odds3.52
Implied28.9%
Edge+16.8pp
Hapoel Tel-Aviv win
54.3%fair 1.84
Best odds1.33
Implied71.1%
Edge-16.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Baskonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 177 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%). The market's main line is 182.5.
Over/Under 177.5
Over 177.5
47.3%
@ 1.48-14.0pp
Under 177.5
52.7%
@ 2.35+14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.35
Over/Under 182.5 · main line
Over 182.5
35.6%
@ 1.96-13.6pp
Under 182.5
64.4%
@ 1.90+13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.82
Over/Under 187.5
Over 187.5
25.3%
@ 2.44-12.0pp
Under 187.5
74.7%
@ 1.45+12.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.44
Under
1xBet
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Baskonia total 83.5
Over 83.5
65.7%
Under 83.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baskonia total 87.5 · main line
Over 87.5
50.7%
@ 1.77-0.2pp
Under 87.5
49.3%
@ 1.84+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Under
1xBet
1.84
Baskonia total 91.5
Over 91.5
35.8%
Under 91.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv total 90.5
Over 90.5
43.8%
Under 90.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv total 94.5 · main line
Over 94.5
29.1%
@ 1.84-20.2pp
Under 94.5
70.9%
@ 1.79+20.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.79
Hapoel Tel-Aviv total 98.5
Over 98.5
17.4%
Under 98.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Baskonia's side (positive = Baskonia win). Pythia's expected margin is -1.2; Baskonia win by 1+ in 40% of simulations.
Spread Baskonia +3.5
BAS +3.5
56.5%
@ 2.21+15.4pp
HTA -3.5
43.5%
@ 1.54-15.4pp
Best 5 market prices
BAS
1xBet
2.21
HTA
1xBet
1.54
Spread Baskonia +6.5 · main line
BAS +6.5
67.5%
@ 1.93+17.5pp
HTA -6.5
32.5%
@ 1.93-17.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BAS
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.83
HTA
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Spread Baskonia +9.5
BAS +9.5
76.7%
@ 1.54+17.8pp
HTA -9.5
23.3%
@ 2.21-17.8pp
Best 5 market prices
BAS
1xBet
1.54
HTA
1xBet
2.21
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
BaskoniaHapoel Tel-Aviv
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BaskoniaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#16
L
12-24
12
24
-12
A16/10
Euroleague
Tenerife
#4
L
18-25
18
25
-7
A18/10
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
W
21-20
21
20
+1
A22/10
Euroleague
Valencia
#2
L
19-27
19
27
-8
A25/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#5
L
19-30
19
30
-11
H27/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
L
16-26
16
26
-10
A30/10
Euroleague
Manresa
#18
W
30-22
30
22
+8
H01/11
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
L
18-33
18
33
-15
A05/11
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
27-20
27
20
+7
A07/11
ACB
Partizan
#11
L
18-23
18
23
-5
A11/11
Euroleague
44.8Avg total
19.8Scored
25.0Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)
21.0
23.8
44.8
-2.8
37%
53%
Last 30 at home (15)
23.0
22.9
45.9
+0.1
53%
60%
Last 30 away (15)
19.0
24.7
43.7
-5.7
20%
47%
Last 10 (10)
19.8
25.0
44.8
-5.2
30%
50%
Last 5 (5)
21.8
24.8
46.6
-3.0
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)
19.0
27.0
46.0
-8.0
9%
55%
vs Similar (11)
19.8
22.6
42.5
-2.8
27%
45%
vs Weaker (8)
25.4
20.9
46.2
+4.5
88%
62%
This opponent (Hapoel Tel-Aviv) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Baskonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Baskoniatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Baskonia: 87.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.5
23.2
57.3%
55.2%
46.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.9
9.1
35.1%
35.7%
27.3
🏀Free throws
18.6
14.1
75.8%
77.1%
14.1
Their opponents take 66.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Hapoel Tel-Avivtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Hapoel Tel-Aviv: 83.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.9
22.2
53.0%
55.2%
44.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.7
8.2
33.2%
35.7%
24.6
🏀Free throws
19.8
14.9
75.3%
77.1%
14.9
Their opponents take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 59.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Baskoniatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Baskonia: 83.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.1 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.5
22.5
55.6%
55.2%
45.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.1
8.4
33.5%
35.7%
25.2
🏀Free throws
17.4
13.1
75.4%
77.1%
13.1
Their opponents take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Hapoel Tel-Avivtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Hapoel Tel-Aviv: 77.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.5 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
34.0
19.2
56.5%
55.2%
38.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.2
8.8
34.7%
35.7%
26.3
🏀Free throws
16.3
12.6
77.7%
77.1%
12.6
Their opponents take 59.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Baskonia
LWLWLLLLLL
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
LLWLWLWWWW
#20
League position
#10
-5.0
Net rating
+7.3
94.9
Offensive rating
105.2
99.9
Defensive rating
97.8
51.4%
Effective FG%
58.2%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
16.2%
Turnover %
12.3%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.28
33.2%
3-point %
40.6%
65.6%
Assist %
51.4%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%
Profile
■ Baskonia■ Hapoel Tel-Aviv
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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PythiaBasketballBETA
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