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Benfica vs AEK Larnaca Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 27 Sep 2023
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 87-59
24-15 23-16 15-18 25-10
Position#28
Record1-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game122.0
Allowed / game62.0
Benfica 🏆
vs
AEK Larnaca
Position#25
Record1-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game66.0
EuropeChampions LeagueChampions League - Semi-finals· Antalya Spor Salonu
European cup2023Neutral venue
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Benfica winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
AEK Larnaca winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BenficaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBenfica
Date
Competition
CD Povoa
#5
W
93-72
93
72
+21
no box
A13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#8
W
88-59
88
59
+29
no box
H20/05
LPB
Ovarense
#8
W
91-79 OT
91
79
+12
no box
H22/05
LPB
Ovarense
#8
W
115-44
115
44
+71
no box
A25/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
W
85-84
85
84
+1
no box
H04/06
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
L
87-93
87
93
-6
no box
H06/06
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
W
101-57
101
57
+44
no box
A09/06
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
W
101-85
101
85
+16
no box
A11/06
LPB
Imortal
#2
W
93-75
93
75
+18
86avg 79
H16/09
Super Cup
TSU
#54
W
122-62
122
62
+60
124avg 79
H25/09
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-18
17-17
24-16
20-21
17-16
28-17
21-13
22-13
17-27
22-11
14-16
23-22
28-16
36-7
31-14
20-7
28-19
19-29
24-18
14-18
25-21
23-18
12-27
27-27
17-17
31-17
26-11
27-12
23-28
25-17
21-25
32-15
21-15
31-21
16-19
25-20
25-15
32-17
36-18
29-12
168.6Avg total
97.6Scored
71.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)122.062.0184.0+60.0100%
Season at home (1)122.062.0184.0+60.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)97.671.0168.6+26.690%
Last 5 (5)100.874.4175.2+26.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)91.078.0169.0+13.0100%
vs Similar (1)75.074.0149.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)93.973.3167.2+20.680%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLarnaca
Date
Competition
ETHA Engomi
#7
W
76-47
76
47
+29
no box
A05/04
Division A
Anorthosis
#5
W
83-72
83
72
+11
no box
H12/04
Division A
Anorthosis
#5
W
84-71
84
71
+13
no box
A19/04
Division A
Anorthosis
#5
W
90-72
90
72
+18
no box
H22/04
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
84-83
84
83
+1
no box
A07/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
85-55
85
55
+30
no box
H10/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
87-96
87
96
-9
no box
A14/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
64-69
64
69
-5
no box
H17/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
72-70
72
70
+2
no box
A22/05
Division A
Levice
#47
W
74-66
74
66
+8
70avg 70
A25/09
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-12
22-10
14-18
16-7
21-18
21-21
19-18
22-15
20-21
24-17
23-17
17-16
22-17
23-21
24-19
21-15
21-21
19-23
24-28
20-11
19-11
14-15
27-11
25-18
20-20
26-26
18-24
23-26
12-26
20-7
11-17
21-19
14-15
20-16
21-17
17-22
20-0
25-22
8-21
21-23
150.0Avg total
79.9Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)74.066.0140.0+8.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)74.066.0140.0+8.0100%
Last 10 (10)79.970.1150.0+9.880%
Last 5 (5)76.471.2147.6+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (7)76.473.3149.7+3.157%
vs Weaker (22)84.164.2148.4+19.986%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +9.3+9.3Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +7.2+7.2Q4: +3.1+3.1
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +9.3+9.3Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +7.2+7.2Q4: +3.1+3.1
BenficaAEK Larnaca
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CD Povoa
#5
W
49-35
49
35
+14
A13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#8
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H20/05
LPB
Ovarense
#8
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H22/05
LPB
Ovarense
#8
W
64-23
64
23
+41
A25/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H04/06
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H06/06
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A09/06
LPB
Sporting CP
#2
W
48-45
48
45
+3
A11/06
LPB
Imortal
#2
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H16/09
Super Cup
TSU
#54
W
57-32
57
32
+25
H25/09
Champions League
86.0Avg total
49.7Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.736.485.0+12.390%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.136.585.5+12.693%-
Last 30 away (15)48.336.384.5+12.087%-
Last 10 (10)49.736.386.0+13.490%-
Last 5 (5)50.637.287.8+13.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)42.034.076.0+8.0100%-
vs Similar (1)43.035.078.0+8.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)49.036.885.8+12.288%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
ETHA Engomi
#7
W
46-22
46
22
+24
A05/04
Division A
Anorthosis
#5
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H12/04
Division A
Anorthosis
#5
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A19/04
Division A
Anorthosis
#5
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H22/04
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
40-44
40
44
-4
A07/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H10/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A14/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H17/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A22/05
Division A
Levice
#47
W
45-22
45
22
+23
A25/09
Champions League
74.6Avg total
40.7Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.633.475.0+8.270%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.532.574.9+10.080%-
Last 30 away (15)40.734.375.0+6.360%-
Last 10 (10)40.733.974.6+6.870%-
Last 5 (5)38.031.669.6+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (7)36.037.973.9-1.929%-
vs Weaker (22)43.232.575.7+10.782%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.321.0
54.8%
51.4%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.810.0
37.3%
34.9%30.0
🏀 Free throws16.712.0
71.9%
74.5%12.0
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Larnaca: 61.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.0 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.518.0
41.4%
51.4%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.06.0
33.3%
34.9%18.0
🏀 Free throws10.07.0
70.0%
74.5%7.0
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/2 games with a box score before 27 Sep 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Benfica
WWWWLWWWWW
AEK Larnaca
WWLLWWWWWW
#28
League position
#25
+10.8
Net rating
-4.9
112.3
Offensive rating
86.2
101.4
Defensive rating
91.2
55.3%
Effective FG%
43.9%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
39.1%
18.6%
Turnover %
18.2%
32.8%
Off. rebound %
20.5%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.16
37.3%
3-point %
33.3%
63.2%
Assist %
56.2%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence112.3 · 86.2Defence101.4 · 91.2Shooting55.3% · 43.9%3-point %37.3% · 33.3%Ball care18.6% · 18.2%Off. rebounds32.8% · 20.5%Free throws0.26 · 0.16Form (last 10/10)90% · 80%
■ Benfica   ■ AEK Larnaca
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Benfica wins
0
AEK Larnaca wins
No previous meetings.
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/09/23HTSU122-62
16/09/23HImortal93-75
11/06/23ASporting CP101-85
09/06/23ASporting CP101-57
06/06/23HSporting CP87-93
04/06/23HSporting CP85-84
25/05/23AOvarense115-44
22/05/23HOvarense91-79 OT
20/05/23HOvarense88-59
13/05/23ACD Povoa93-72
AEK Larnacalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/09/23ALevice74-66
22/05/23AKeravnos72-70
17/05/23HKeravnos64-69
14/05/23AKeravnos87-96
10/05/23HKeravnos85-55
07/05/23AKeravnos84-83
22/04/23HAnorthosis90-72
19/04/23AAnorthosis84-71
12/04/23HAnorthosis83-72
05/04/23AETHA Engomi76-47

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Benfica
Champions League 2023
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game122.0122.0-
Allowed / game62.062.0-
Point differential+60.0+60.0-
Avg total184.0184.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
AEK Larnaca
Champions League 2023
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game74.0-74.0
Allowed / game66.0-66.0
Point differential+8.0-+8.0
Avg total140.0-140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica110100%122.062.0+60.0
2 Nes Ziona110100%92.056.0+36.0
3 Obradoiro CAB110100%90.056.0+34.0
4 Legia110100%70.059.0+11.0
5 AEK Larnaca110100%74.066.0+8.0
6 Norrkoping220100%80.073.0+7.0
7 Strasbourg110100%83.078.0+5.0
8 Cholet110100%76.072.0+4.0
9 Brindisi110100%77.074.0+3.0
10 Varese110100%73.071.0+2.0
11 Bakken Bears21150%85.578.5+7.0
12 Fribourg Olympic21150%58.060.5-2.5
13 FMP Beograd1010%71.073.0-2.0
14 CSM Oradea1010%74.077.0-3.0
15 Antwerp Giants1010%72.076.0-4.0
16 BC Kalev/Cramo1010%78.082.0-4.0
17 Jonava1010%78.083.0-5.0
18 Caledonia Gladiators1010%51.057.0-6.0
19 Levice1010%66.074.0-8.0
20 Peja1010%79.0103.0-24.0
21 Mornar Bar1010%56.090.0-34.0
22 Karhu Basket1010%56.092.0-36.0
23 TSU1010%62.0122.0-60.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 23 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Benfica2423152587
AEK Larnaca1516181059
← all games of the day
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