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Beroe vs Lok. Plovdiv Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 27 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 17:15
Final 86-89
21-14 26-24 18-29 21-22
Position#8
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game86.3
Allowed / game77.0
Beroe
Bulgaria
vs
Lok. Plovdiv 🏆
Bulgaria
Position#4
Record1-2
FormLLW
Points / game84.3
Allowed / game76.0
BulgariaNBLRound 4· Municipal Hall
Other2025-26
Meetings · Beroe v Lok. Plovdiv
17 Oct 2026
BERO95
LOK.98
27 Oct 2025
BERO86
LOK.89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Beroe winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lok. Plovdiv winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BeroeBulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBeroe
Date
Competition
Rilski Sportist
#1
L
109-116 OT
109
116
-7
93avg 81
A21/03
NBL
Spartak Pleven
#4
L
78-87
78
87
-9
68avg 81
A29/03
NBL
Minyor
#7
W
99-79
99
79
+20
102avg 81
H05/04
NBL
Levski
#8
W
84-76
84
76
+8
79avg 81
H12/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
L
81-96
81
96
-15
71avg 81
A26/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
L
96-100 OT
96
100
-4
84avg 81
A30/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
L
86-91
86
91
-5
81avg 81
H02/05
NBL
Botev 2012
#6
W
90-86
90
86
+4
87avg 81
A04/10
NBL
Shumen
#11
W
83-78
83
78
+5
53avg 81
H11/10
NBL
Academic Plovdiv
#9
W
86-67
86
67
+19
82avg 81
A19/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-33
21-27
21-17
29-23
19-17
19-25
17-25
23-20
26-19
21-19
30-24
22-17
21-18
20-23
21-16
22-19
22-21
18-25
22-30
19-20
22-25
20-16
25-23
20-23
21-24
10-25
24-23
31-19
29-22
22-24
20-19
19-21
21-15
16-24
24-16
22-23
22-16
16-20
29-24
19-7
176.8Avg total
89.2Scored
87.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)86.377.0163.3+9.3100%
Season at home (1)83.078.0161.0+5.0100%
Season away (2)88.076.5164.5+11.5100%
Last 10 (10)89.287.6176.8+1.650%
Last 5 (5)88.284.4172.6+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)87.094.7181.7-7.727%
vs Similar (4)85.579.8165.2+5.850%
vs Weaker (10)90.883.4174.2+7.490%
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lok. PlovdivBulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPlovdiv
Date
Competition
Cherno More
#3
L
77-86
77
86
-9
70avg 79
H06/10
NBL
Balkan
#1
L
80-83
80
83
-3
70avg 79
A11/10
NBL
Shumen
#11
W
96-59
96
59
+37
97avg 79
H18/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-17
21-21
23-25
15-23
14-17
17-29
26-23
23-14
31-10
20-23
22-8
23-18
160.3Avg total
84.3Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)84.376.0160.3+8.333%
Season at home (2)86.572.5159.0+14.050%
Season away (1)80.083.0163.0-3.00%
Last 10 (3)84.376.0160.3+8.333%
Last 5 (3)84.376.0160.3+8.333%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)80.083.0163.0-3.00%
vs Similar (1)77.086.0163.0-9.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)96.059.0155.0+37.0100%
This opponent (Beroe) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: -4.5-4.5Q2: -5.0-5.0Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +5.0+5.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +2.0+2.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: -4.5-4.5Q2: -5.0-5.0Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +5.0+5.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +2.0+2.0
BeroeLok. Plovdiv
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BeroeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rilski Sportist
#1
L
50-60
50
60
-10
A21/03
NBL
Spartak Pleven
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A29/03
NBL
Minyor
#7
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H05/04
NBL
Levski
#8
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H12/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A26/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A30/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H02/05
NBL
Botev 2012
#6
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A04/10
NBL
Shumen
#11
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H11/10
NBL
Academic Plovdiv
#9
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A19/10
NBL
85.3Avg total
41.5Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.544.087.5-0.550%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.544.589.0+0.043%-
Last 30 away (16)42.643.686.2-0.956%-
Last 10 (10)41.543.885.3-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)39.842.282.0-2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)44.146.990.9-2.840%-
vs Similar (4)41.239.280.5+2.050%-
vs Weaker (10)43.542.085.5+1.560%-
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lok. PlovdivLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cherno More
#3
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H06/10
NBL
Balkan
#1
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A11/10
NBL
Shumen
#11
W
51-33
51
33
+18
H18/10
NBL
79.3Avg total
40.3Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (3)40.339.079.3+1.367%-
Last 30 at home (2)45.035.580.5+9.5100%-
Last 30 away (1)31.046.077.0-15.00%-
Last 10 (3)40.339.079.3+1.367%-
Last 5 (3)40.339.079.3+1.367%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)31.046.077.0-15.00%-
vs Similar (1)39.038.077.0+1.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)51.033.084.0+18.0100%-
This opponent (Beroe) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Beroetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Beroe: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
50%
29%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.122.1
56.5%
54.5%44.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.48.3
30.3%
32.5%24.9
🏀 Free throws26.518.9
71.3%
71.3%18.9
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lok. Plovdivtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lok. Plovdiv: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.7 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
50%
29%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.721.3
58.2%
54.5%42.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.0
29.0%
32.5%27.0
🏀 Free throws18.714.0
75.0%
71.3%14.0
They take 67.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/3 games with a box score before 27 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Beroe
WWWLLLWWLL
Lok. Plovdiv
WLL
#8
League position
#4
+0.9
Net rating
+11.6
110.1
Offensive rating
107.4
109.3
Defensive rating
95.9
52.0%
Effective FG%
51.5%
55.2%
Opp. effective FG%
44.8%
15.9%
Turnover %
14.2%
28.8%
Off. rebound %
25.2%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.28
30.3%
3-point %
29.0%
65.1%
Assist %
63.7%
50%
Form (last 10/3)
33%

Profile

Offence110.1 · 107.4Defence109.3 · 95.9Shooting52.0% · 51.5%3-point %30.3% · 29.0%Ball care15.9% · 14.2%Off. rebounds28.8% · 25.2%Free throws0.40 · 0.28Form (last 10/3)50% · 33%
■ Beroe   ■ Lok. Plovdiv
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Beroe wins
0
Lok. Plovdiv wins
No previous meetings.
Beroelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/10/25AAcademic Plovdiv86-67
11/10/25HShumen83-78
04/10/25ABotev 201290-86
02/05/25HCherno More86-91
30/04/25ACherno More96-100 OT
26/04/25ACherno More81-96
12/04/25HLevski84-76
05/04/25HMinyor99-79
29/03/25ASpartak Pleven78-87
21/03/25ARilski Sportist109-116 OT
Lok. Plovdivlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/10/25HShumen96-59
11/10/25ABalkan80-83
06/10/25HCherno More77-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Beroe
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game86.383.088.0
Allowed / game77.078.076.5
Point differential+9.3+5.0+11.5
Avg total163.3161.0164.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lok. Plovdiv
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Losses (last 3)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeLW50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game84.386.580.0
Allowed / game76.072.583.0
Point differential+8.3+14.0-3.0
Avg total160.3159.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Beroe330100%86.377.0+9.3
2 Rilski Sportist43175%90.076.5+13.5
3 Balkan43175%78.873.5+5.2
4 Cherno More43175%85.881.0+4.8
5 Minyor43175%82.582.5+0.0
6 Spartak Pleven32167%81.374.7+6.7
7 Lok. Plovdiv31233%84.376.0+8.3
8 Botev 201231233%80.382.0-1.7
9 Academic Plovdiv4040%74.586.8-12.2
10 Levski3030%70.789.3-18.7
11 Shumen3030%70.389.3-19.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Beroe2126182186
Lok. Plovdiv1424292289
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