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Brigham Young vs Montana State Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 13 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 90-72
Projected total 161.7
Final 86-71
43-29 43-42
Position#54
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game100.0
Allowed / game77.3
Brigham Young 🏆
USA
Vs
94%
■ BRIG 94%■ MONT 6%
Pythia win probability
Montana State
USA
Position#281
Record1-1
FormWWLLW
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game77.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Brigham Young faces Montana State in the NCAA on 12 November 2026, and the Pythia model names the Cougars as the clear favourite, rating them 94% to win, a reflection of their 3-0 season record, 100.0 points per game and 77.3 allowed per game, while Montana State sits 1-1 with 78.5 points per game and 77.0 allowed, a stark contrast that drives the probability gap. Brigham Young has never lost in all three games, scoring 100.0 per game and allowing 77.3, and has won all three home contests, with recent victories over Queens Royals 98-82, Nebraska O. 108-67 and Ohio State 94-83, all at home, showing a strong offensive rhythm; Montana State's road record is 0-1, with a 74-84 loss to Colorado State and a 74-78 defeat at Idaho, indicating struggles away. The last meeting between the teams is not recorded, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 90-72 score, 161.7 total points, and gives Brigham Young a 33% chance to cover the -23.5 line and a 45% chance of the over on the 163.5 total, with a 1% overtime probability. The Cougars' dominant season numbers suggest they will continue their winning streak, while Montana State may find the road a challenge.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brigham Young winWon
94.5%fair 1.06
Best odds1.02
Implied94.9%
Edge-0.4pp
Montana State winLost
5.5%fair 18.04
Best odds26.00
Implied5.1%
Edge+0.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Brigham YoungUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
West Virginia
#147
L
71-79
71
79
-8
A28/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
68-90
68
90
-22
A04/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
82-76
82
76
+6
H08/03
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
105-91
105
91
+14
H10/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
68-48
68
48
+20
A11/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
66-73
66
73
-7
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
71-79
71
79
-8
H19/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#217
W
94-83
94
83
+11
H03/11
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#189
W
108-67
108
67
+41
H07/11
NCAA
Queens Royals
#239
W
98-82
98
82
+16
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-40
45-39
31-43
37-47
38-46
44-30
50-49
55-42
31-23
37-25
41-37
25-36
37-46
34-33
34-37
60-46
56-30
52-37
54-42
44-40
159.9Avg total
83.1Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)100.077.3177.3+22.7100%
Season at home (3)100.077.3177.3+22.7100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.176.8159.9+6.360%
Last 5 (5)87.476.8164.2+10.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)72.476.0148.4-3.620%
vs Similar (10)75.577.4152.9-1.950%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)95.078.3173.3+16.787%
This opponent (Montana State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Montana StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East. Washington
#261
L
71-72
71
72
-1
H08/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
82-71
82
71
+11
A15/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
L
79-82 OT
79
82
-3
A20/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
L
76-91
76
91
-15
A21/02
NCAA
Portland State
#87
W
84-69
84
69
+15
H27/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
82-61
82
61
+21
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
W
76-65
76
65
+11
A03/03
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H09/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#75
L
74-84
74
84
-10
A03/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#283
W
83-70
83
70
+13
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-37
37-35
38-37
44-34
29-28
38-39
30-50
46-41
43-34
41-35
37-33
45-28
36-25
40-40
40-36
34-42
38-44
36-40
41-32
42-38
152.4Avg total
78.1Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)78.577.0155.5+1.550%
Season at home (1)83.070.0153.0+13.0100%
Season away (1)74.084.0158.0-10.00%
Last 10 (10)78.174.3152.4+3.850%
Last 5 (5)77.871.6149.4+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)79.080.7159.7-1.733%
vs Similar (13)77.373.2150.5+4.262%
vs Weaker (13)75.570.2145.7+5.462%
This opponent (Brigham Young) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
55.2%
@ 1.50-6.3pp
Under 159.5
44.8%
@ 2.40+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 164.5 · main lineActual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
42.9%
@ 1.93-6.5pp
Under 164.5
57.1%
@ 1.89+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 169.5Actual: Under 169.5
Over 169.5
31.3%
@ 2.40-7.2pp
Under 169.5
68.7%
@ 1.50+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Brigham Young total 88.5Actual: Brigham Young under 88.5
Over 88.5
56.7%
@ 1.33-12.9pp
Under 88.5
43.3%
@ 3.20+12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.85
Brigham Young total 92.5 · main lineActual: Brigham Young under 92.5
Over 92.5
40.6%
@ 1.85-12.3pp
Under 92.5
59.4%
@ 2.05+12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
1.85
Brigham Young total 96.5Actual: Brigham Young under 96.5
Over 96.5
26.0%
@ 2.50-13.5pp
Under 96.5
74.0%
@ 1.55+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Montana State total 66Actual: Montana State over 66
Over 66
71.4%
Under 66
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana State total 70 · main lineActual: Montana State over 70
Over 70
55.9%
@ 1.85+5.9pp
Under 70
44.1%
@ 1.85-5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Montana State total 74Actual: Montana State under 74
Over 74
39.4%
Under 74
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Brigham Young -22.5Actual: Montana State +22.5
BRIG -22.5
36.4%
@ 1.90-14.3pp
MONT +22.5
63.6%
@ 2.00+14.3pp
Best 5 market prices
BRIG
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.73
MONT
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Brigham Young -19.5 · main lineActual: Montana State +19.5
BRIG -19.5
46.8%
@ 1.83-9.5pp
MONT +19.5
53.2%
@ 2.45+9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BRIG
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.47
MONT
Betano
2.45
1xBet
1.83
Spread Brigham Young -16.5Actual: Montana State +16.5
BRIG -16.5
57.5%
@ 1.32-12.3pp
MONT +16.5
42.5%
@ 3.05+12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
BRIG
Betano
1.32
MONT
Betano
3.05

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: +1.0+1.02nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: +3.1+3.1
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: +1.0+1.02nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: +3.1+3.1
Brigham YoungMontana State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Brigham YoungLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
West Virginia
#147
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A04/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
38-46
38
46
-8
H08/03
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
50-49
50
49
+1
H10/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
31-23
31
23
+8
A11/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H19/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#217
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H03/11
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#189
W
56-30
56
30
+26
H07/11
NCAA
Queens Royals
#239
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H11/11
NCAA
79.1Avg total
39.8Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)38.738.677.2+0.150%43%
Last 30 at home (19)40.038.378.3+1.758%42%
Last 30 away (11)36.439.175.5-2.736%45%
Last 10 (10)39.839.379.1+0.550%50%
Last 5 (5)44.438.482.8+6.060%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)35.438.073.4-2.640%0%
vs Similar (10)32.040.372.3-8.310%40%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)44.237.681.8+6.680%60%
This opponent (Montana State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Montana StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East. Washington
#261
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H08/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A15/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A20/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A21/02
NCAA
Portland State
#87
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H27/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
W
36-25
36
25
+11
A03/03
NCAA
Idaho
#136
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H09/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#75
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A03/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#283
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H07/11
NCAA
72.2Avg total
36.6Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)37.032.969.9+4.063%20%
Last 30 at home (14)40.632.673.1+8.093%14%
Last 30 away (16)33.833.267.1+0.638%25%
Last 10 (10)36.635.672.2+1.070%20%
Last 5 (5)38.434.072.4+4.480%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)37.339.076.3-1.733%33%
vs Similar (13)36.831.868.6+4.985%8%
vs Weaker (13)36.433.670.0+2.846%31%
This opponent (Brigham Young) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Brigham Young win
BRIG win
no forecast
@ 1.07
MONT win
no forecast
@ 8.75
1st half Spread Brigham Young -13.5 · main lineActual: Brigham Young -13.5
BRIG -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
MONT +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 79 · main lineActual: Under 79
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Brigham Young 1st half total 46 · main lineActual: Brigham Young under 46
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.89
Montana State 1st half total 32 · main lineActual: Montana State under 32
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.89
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.11
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Brigham Young -14.5Actual: Montana State +14.5
BRIG -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.14
MONT +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Brigham Young -12.5Actual: Brigham Young -12.5
BRIG -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
MONT +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Spread Brigham Young -15.5Actual: Montana State +15.5
BRIG -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
MONT +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.68
1st half Spread Brigham Young -11.5Actual: Brigham Young -11.5
BRIG -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
MONT +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 82.5Actual: Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Brigham Young -16.5Actual: Montana State +16.5
BRIG -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
MONT +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Brigham Young -10.5Actual: Brigham Young -10.5
BRIG -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
MONT +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Brigham Young (regulation)
BRIG
no forecast
@ 1.08
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
MONT
no forecast
@ 13.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
BRIG win + total 164.5
🔒 Pro
MONT win + total 164.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BRIG leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Brigham Young under 98.580.1%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+14.9ppWon
Brigham Young under 95.570.6%1.68
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67		---+14.8ppWon
Montana State +2572.1%1.73
Marathon Bet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.66		---+14.5ppWon
Brigham Young under 97.577.1%1.46
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44		---+14.0ppWon
Brigham Young under 96.574.0%1.52
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.50		---+13.5ppWon
Brigham Young under 99.582.8%1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30		---+13.0ppWon
Montana State +24.570.0%1.73
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.65		-+12.1ppWon
Brigham Young under 100.585.2%1.25
1xBet
1.25		----+11.5ppWon
Under 170.570.9%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+6.8ppWon
Under 171.573.0%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+6.2ppWon
Montana State over 65.572.4%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+5.6ppWon
Brigham Young (regulation)93.5%1.03
Betano
1.03		----+5.2ppWon
Montana State over 64.575.7%1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25		---+4.3ppWon
Montana State over 61.584.1%1.12
1xBet
1.12		----+1.0ppWon
Brigham Young win94.5%1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01		--0.4ppWon
Montana State under 79.578.9%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----2.5ppWon
Brigham Young over 84.571.8%1.12
1xBet
1.12		-----11.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Brigham Young wins
0
Montana State wins
No previous meetings.
Brigham Younglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HQueens Royals98-82
07/11/26HNebraska O.108-67
03/11/26HOhio State94-83
19/03/26HTexas71-79
12/03/26AHouston66-73
11/03/26AWest Virginia68-48
10/03/26HKansas State105-91
08/03/26HTexas Tech82-76
04/03/26ACincinnati68-90
28/02/26AWest Virginia71-79
Montana Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HLong Beach State83-70
03/11/26AColorado State74-84
09/03/26HIdaho74-78
03/03/26ANorthern Arizona76-65
28/02/26HSacramento State82-61
27/02/26HPortland State84-69
21/02/26AIdaho State76-91
20/02/26AWeber State79-82 OT
15/02/26AMontana82-71
08/02/26HEast. Washington71-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brigham Young
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game100.0100.0-
Allowed / game77.377.3-
Point differential+22.7+22.7-
Avg total177.3177.3-
Over 164.5100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Montana State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game78.583.074.0
Allowed / game77.070.084.0
Point differential+1.5+13.0-10.0
Avg total155.5153.0158.0
Over 164.50%0%0%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Baylor330100%95.359.7+35.7
2 TCU330100%101.368.3+33.0
3 West Virginia330100%85.753.3+32.3
4 Kansas330100%91.059.7+31.3
5 Brigham Young330100%100.077.3+22.7
6 Arizona State330100%83.363.7+19.7
7 Texas Tech330100%78.759.3+19.3
8 Utah Utes330100%72.761.3+11.3
9 UCF Knights330100%86.379.7+6.7
10 Houston32167%84.762.3+22.3
11 Oklahoma State32167%92.772.0+20.7
12 Iowa State32167%81.061.3+19.7
13 Arizona32167%89.775.7+14.0
14 Cincinnati32167%73.760.0+13.7
15 Colorado32167%81.070.3+10.7
16 Kansas State32167%83.376.0+7.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Sky conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Northern Colorado32167%94.068.7+25.3
2 Idaho32167%90.767.7+23.0
3 Sacramento State21150%83.578.5+5.0
4 Montana State21150%78.577.0+1.5
5 Montana31233%77.363.3+14.0
6 Portland State31233%80.775.0+5.7
7 East. Washington3030%73.388.7-15.3
8 Weber State3030%72.796.0-23.3
9 Northern Arizona3030%67.091.0-24.0
10 Idaho State3030%67.392.0-24.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Brigham Young434386
Montana State294271
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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