The NCAA matchup on 4 November 2026 pits Butler against Fairleigh Dickinson, with Butler the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 98% to win, reflecting their 1-0 record, 96.0 points per game and only 60.0 points allowed. Butler's single game shows a dominant 96-60 home victory, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 96-60 win over Lafayette at home. Fairleigh Dickinson, conversely, sits at 0-1, scoring 45.0 points per game while conceding 120.0, and their last five games are all losses, the most recent being a 45-120 defeat to Illinois. Head-to-head history is absent, so the preview relies on current form. Pythia projects a 87-63 score, with a 49% chance that Butler covers the -24.5 spread and a 45% chance of the over on the 151.5 total. The overtime probability is 1%.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Butler winWon
97.8%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied95.2%
Edge+2.6pp
Fairleigh Dickinson winLost
2.2%fair 45.87
Best odds50.00
Implied4.8%
Edge-2.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 03 Nov 14:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Butler) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
57.6%
@ 1.40-9.7pp
Under 146.5
42.4%
@ 3.00+9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.67
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
45.2%
@ 1.80-8.4pp
Under 151.5
54.8%
@ 2.10+8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.67
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
33.3%
@ 2.22-13.9pp
Under 156.5
66.7%
@ 1.83+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathon Be
1.95
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Be
1.75
📊 3. Team Totals
Butler total 83.5Actual: Butler over 83.5
Over 83.5
63.8%
@ 1.34-3.9pp
Under 83.5
36.2%
@ 2.80+3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.80
Butler total 87.5 · main lineActual: Butler over 87.5
Over 87.5
47.9%
@ 1.85-3.0pp
Under 87.5
52.1%
@ 2.62+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.00
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Butler total 91.5Actual: Butler over 91.5
Over 91.5
32.3%
@ 2.50-17.7pp
Under 91.5
67.7%
@ 1.90+17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.50
Fairleigh Dickinson total 60Actual: Fairleigh Dickinson over 60
Over 60
60.6%
Under 60
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fairleigh Dickinson total 64 · main lineActual: Fairleigh Dickinson over 64
Over 64
44.1%
@ 1.85-5.9pp
Under 64
55.9%
@ 1.85+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Fairleigh Dickinson total 68Actual: Fairleigh Dickinson under 68
Over 68
28.5%
Under 68
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Butler -29.5Actual: Butler -29.5
BUTL -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.72
FAIR +29.5
no forecast
@ 1.43
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.65
FAIR
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
Spread Butler -26.5 · main lineActual: Butler -26.5
BUTL -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
FAIR +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
Bet365
2.10
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
FAIR
Marathon Be
1.93
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.66
Spread Butler -23.5Actual: Butler -23.5
BUTL -23.5
53.0%
@ 1.83+1.6pp
FAIR +23.5
47.0%
@ 2.00-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.82
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.75
FAIR
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
BetVictor
1.85
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ButlerFairleigh Dickinson
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Butler under 92
70.2%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Butler under 92.5
71.2%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Butler under 94.5
77.7%
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Lost
Butler under 97.5
85.6%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Lost
Butler under 96.5
83.2%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Butler under 100.5
91.4%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Butler under 93.5
74.6%
1.46
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Butler under 99.5
89.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Under 158
70.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Under 159
72.6%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Under 158.5
71.1%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Under 160
74.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Under 159.5
73.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Fairleigh Dickinson under 68.5
72.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 160.5
75.2%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Lost
Under 161
76.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Lost
Butler (regulation)
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
Butler -15.5
78.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson under 69.5
75.7%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson under 70.5
78.7%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson under 73.5
86.3%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 163.5
80.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Lost
Under 178.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Butler -16
77.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
93.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 168.5
88.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Butler -16.5
75.6%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Butler -4.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Butler -17.5
72.8%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Butler win
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson under 72.5
84.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson under 74.5
88.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Butler over 72.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Butler -17
74.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Butler -18
71.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Butler -14.5
80.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Butler -9.5
90.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Butler over 74.5
89.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Butler over 76.5
85.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson over 50.5
88.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 128.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Butler over 78.5
80.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson over 51.5
86.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Butler over 79.5
77.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson over 52.5
84.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Butler over 81.5
71.0%
1.23
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Butler over 80.5
74.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson over 54.5
79.2%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Over 133.5
84.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson over 53.5
82.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson over 56.5
73.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Fairleigh Dickinson over 55.5
76.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Over 138.5
75.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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