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California vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 27 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 04:00
Final 77-81
29-42 48-39
Position#268
Record12-15
FormWLLLL
Points / game74.1
Allowed / game75.3
California
USA
vs
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
Position#58
Record20-7
FormWWLWL
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game71.7
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · California v SMU Mustangs
25 Feb 2026
CALI73
SMU 69
26 Feb 2025
CALI77
SMU 81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

California winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CaliforniaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#293
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A18/01
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
77-68
77
68
+9
H23/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
H26/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
L
65-76
65
76
-11
A30/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
L
66-75
66
75
-9
H02/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H06/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
L
66-76
66
76
-10
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
57-78
57
78
-21
A13/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
L
88-90 OT
88
90
-2
A15/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
61-66
61
66
-5
A23/02
NCAA
1H
2H
31-29
34-33
37-33
40-35
47-39
32-40
29-39
36-37
23-40
43-35
34-30
40-32
29-31
37-45
23-38
34-40
34-39
45-40
22-28
39-38
146.4Avg total
71.7Scored
74.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)74.175.3149.5-1.244%
Season at home (15)79.273.1152.3+6.167%
Season away (12)67.878.1145.9-10.217%
Last 10 (10)71.774.7146.4-3.040%
Last 5 (5)69.274.4143.6-5.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)66.882.9149.7-16.10%
vs Similar (18)75.172.1147.1+3.056%
vs Weaker (2)88.081.5169.5+6.5100%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#344
W
117-74
117
74
+43
A18/01
NCAA
Louisville
#26
L
73-98
73
98
-25
H22/01
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
63-57
63
57
+6
A25/01
NCAA
California
#268
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H30/01
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
85-61
85
61
+24
H01/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
81-75
81
75
+6
A06/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H12/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
L
66-77
66
77
-11
H15/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
97-73
97
73
+24
A20/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
69-79
69
79
-10
H22/02
NCAA
1H
2H
60-26
57-48
27-50
46-48
34-26
29-31
39-29
37-36
45-25
40-36
35-35
46-40
43-27
40-36
34-32
32-45
50-25
47-48
32-36
37-43
153.2Avg total
81.0Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)82.271.7153.9+10.574%
Season at home (17)83.072.2155.2+10.871%
Season away (10)80.870.8151.6+10.080%
Last 10 (10)81.072.2153.2+8.870%
Last 5 (5)79.273.4152.6+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.089.0151.0-27.00%
vs Similar (6)75.379.0154.3-3.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)83.469.2152.6+14.282%
This opponent (California) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: +8.8+8.82nd half2nd half: +0.5+0.52nd half: +0.0+0.0
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: +8.8+8.82nd half2nd half: +0.5+0.52nd half: +0.0+0.0
CaliforniaSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
CaliforniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#293
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A18/01
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H23/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H26/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A30/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
L
23-40
23
40
-17
H02/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H06/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
23-38
23
38
-15
A13/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A15/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
22-28
22
28
-6
A23/02
NCAA
65.5Avg total
30.9Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.035.969.9-1.947%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.634.670.2+1.069%-
Last 30 away (14)32.137.469.6-5.321%-
Last 10 (10)30.934.665.5-3.740%-
Last 5 (5)28.433.261.6-4.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)31.839.170.9-7.320%-
vs Similar (18)34.434.568.9-0.156%-
vs Weaker (2)41.033.074.0+8.0100%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#344
W
60-26
60
26
+34
A18/01
NCAA
Louisville
#26
L
27-50
27
50
-23
H22/01
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A25/01
NCAA
California
#268
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H30/01
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H01/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A06/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H12/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H15/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
50-25
50
25
+25
A20/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H22/02
NCAA
71.0Avg total
39.9Scored
31.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.333.172.4+6.270%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.933.673.5+6.378%-
Last 30 away (12)38.332.370.7+6.058%-
Last 10 (10)39.931.171.0+8.870%-
Last 5 (5)38.831.069.8+7.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.041.073.0-9.00%-
vs Similar (6)34.236.770.8-2.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)40.531.572.0+9.177%-
This opponent (California) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
California wins
2
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
30/01/25SMU Mustangs v California76-65
27/03/14SMU Mustangs v California67-65
Californialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/02/25AStanford61-66
15/02/25AGeorgia Tech88-90 OT
13/02/25ADuke57-78
08/02/25HWake Forest66-76
06/02/25HNC State74-62
02/02/25HSyracuse66-75
30/01/25ASMU Mustangs65-76
26/01/25HMiami (FL)98-94 OT
23/01/25HFlorida State77-68
18/01/25ANC State65-62
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/25HClemson69-79
20/02/25ANotre Dame97-73
15/02/25HWake Forest66-77
12/02/25HPittsburgh83-63
06/02/25AVirginia Tech81-75
01/02/25HStanford85-61
30/01/25HCalifornia76-65
25/01/25ANC State63-57
22/01/25HLouisville73-98
18/01/25AMiami (FL)117-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

California
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL44%
HomeWWLWL67%
AwayWLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271512
Win %44%67%17%
Points / game74.179.267.8
Allowed / game75.373.178.1
Point differential-1.2+6.1-10.2
Avg total149.5152.3145.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (2)40% (5)
Overtime %7%7%8%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL74%
HomeWWWLL71%
AwayWWWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271710
Win %74%71%80%
Points / game82.283.080.8
Allowed / game71.772.270.8
Point differential+10.5+10.8+10.0
Avg total153.9155.2151.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+59%71%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2825389%82.661.0+21.6
2 Clemson2823582%77.766.5+11.1
3 Louisville2822679%79.569.3+10.2
4 SMU Mustangs2720774%82.271.7+10.5
5 Wake Forest2819968%70.967.9+2.9
6 Stanford28181064%74.471.0+3.4
7 North Carolina29181162%81.476.6+4.8
8 Pittsburgh28161257%76.871.2+5.5
9 Florida State28161257%75.872.3+3.5
10 Georgia Tech28141450%73.873.1+0.7
11 Virginia28141450%65.266.4-1.2
12 California27121544%74.175.3-1.2
13 Notre Dame28121643%73.172.3+0.8
14 Virginia Tech28121643%69.071.7-2.7
15 Syracuse28121643%74.778.0-3.3
16 Boston College28121643%70.574.9-4.3
17 NC State28111739%69.769.9-0.2
18 Miami (FL)2862221%74.180.3-6.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
California294877
SMU Mustangs423981
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