California faces Utah Tech on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with California the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 87% to win, a reflection of their 3-1 record, 87.5 points scored per game and only 75.2 points allowed, placing them 113th in the league, while Utah Tech sits at 1-2, 83.0 points per game and 90.0 allowed, 287th. California's home slate mirrors its overall season: 3-1, 87.5 points and 75.2 allowed, with a 3-2 run in the last five games, including a 65-77 loss to USC, a 86-68 win over Houston and a 84-70 win over Radford, all at home. Utah Tech's road performance is 0-2, 73.0 points and 109.0 allowed, and in their last five games they have two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 103-52 home victory over Grace College Lancers and losses to Utah State and New Mexico. The Pythia model projects a 85-73 score for California, a total of 158.0 points, with a 37% chance that California covers the -16.5 spread and a 49% probability of the over, while a 3% chance of overtime remains. The final game will hinge on whether California can maintain its defensive edge against Utah Tech's recent offensive swings.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
California winWon
86.8%fair 1.15
Best odds1.09
Implied89.5%
Edge-2.7pp
Utah Tech winLost
13.2%fair 7.57
Best odds10.00
Implied10.5%
Edge+2.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (California) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155Actual: Under 155
Over 155
57.0%
@ 1.52-4.3pp
Under 155
43.0%
@ 2.40+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 160 · main lineActual: Under 160
Over 160
44.5%
@ 1.95-6.2pp
Under 160
55.5%
@ 1.93+6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.76
Over/Under 165Actual: Under 165
Over 165
32.6%
@ 2.65-2.5pp
Under 165
67.4%
@ 1.43+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
California total 83Actual: California under 83
Over 83
59.8%
Under 83
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
California total 87 · main lineActual: California under 87
Over 87
43.2%
@ 1.85-7.1pp
Under 87
56.8%
@ 1.87+7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
California total 91Actual: California under 91
Over 91
27.7%
Under 91
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Tech total 67Actual: Utah Tech over 67
Over 67
71.3%
Under 67
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Tech total 71 · main lineActual: Utah Tech over 71
Over 71
55.9%
@ 1.85+5.9pp
Under 71
44.1%
@ 1.85-5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Utah Tech total 75Actual: Utah Tech under 75
Over 75
39.7%
Under 75
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread California -17Actual: Utah Tech +17
CALI -17
34.6%
@ 2.25-8.2pp
UTAH +17
65.4%
@ 1.78+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathon Be
2.00
SBO
1.93
UTAH
SBO
1.78
Marathon Be
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.57
Spread California -14 · main lineActual: Utah Tech +14
CALI -14
45.2%
@ 1.93-4.7pp
UTAH +14
54.8%
@ 1.97+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
UTAH
Bet365
1.97
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread California -11Actual: Utah Tech +11
CALI -11
56.4%
@ 1.50-6.1pp
UTAH +11
43.6%
@ 2.50+6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
1.50
UTAH
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
CaliforniaUtah Tech
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (California) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Utah Tech +23
82.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Utah Tech +23.5
82.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Utah Tech +24.5
84.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Utah Tech +24
84.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
California under 91.5
73.2%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
California under 93.5
79.4%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
California under 92.5
76.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
California under 94.5
82.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Utah Tech +19.5
72.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
California under 96.5
86.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Utah Tech +19
71.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Utah Tech +20
74.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
California under 97.5
88.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
California under 95.5
84.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Utah Tech +21
77.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
California under 98.5
90.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Utah Tech +20.5
75.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Utah Tech +22
80.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Utah Tech +21.5
78.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Utah Tech +22.5
80.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Utah Tech over 64.5
78.6%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Utah Tech over 54.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Utah Tech over 56.5
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.2%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Utah Tech over 53.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Utah Tech over 58.5
91.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Utah Tech over 62.5
83.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
California over 69.5
94.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Utah Tech over 60.5
88.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Utah Tech over 55.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Utah Tech over 66.5
72.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Utah Tech over 57.5
93.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
California (regulation)
85.1%
1.09
Marathon Bet
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
California over 70.5
93.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 167
71.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Utah Tech over 65.5
75.6%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Utah Tech over 61.5
86.2%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 179.5
90.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
California over 71.5
91.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 167.5
72.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
70.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Utah Tech over 59.5
90.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Over 133.5
93.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 169.5
76.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
California over 72.5
90.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 174.5
84.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 178.5
89.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
92.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
California +4.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
California over 73.5
88.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Utah Tech over 63.5
81.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
California +3.5
91.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Utah Tech under 81.5
81.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Under 168.5
74.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Over 138.5
88.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
California over 74.5
86.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
83.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
California over 75.5
83.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Over 139.5
87.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
California over 77.5
78.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Utah Tech under 79.5
75.5%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Utah Tech under 78.5
72.3%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
California over 76.5
81.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 143.5
81.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
California win
86.8%
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.09
Pinnacle
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
WilliamHill
1.05
-2.7pp
Won
Over 148.5
71.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Utah Tech under 80.5
78.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
California -1.5
85.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
California -6.5
71.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Lost
California -7
70.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Lost
Over 144.5
79.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
California over 78.5
75.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
California over 79.5
72.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.23
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Lost
California -4.5
77.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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