Utah State will host Utah Tech on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Aggies as the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win because of their undefeated 2-0 season record, 92.0 points scored per game and only 57.0 points allowed per game, with a league position of 24; Utah Tech sits at 225 with a 1-1 record, 81.5 points per game and 76.0 allowed. Utah State has won both of its games, 92.0 points per game, 57.0 allowed, and has a 2-0 home record, winning four of its last five games and beating Nebraska O. 90-56 and Idaho State 94-58 at home, while Utah Tech has a 0-1 road record, 60.0 points per game and 100.0 allowed, and has lost its last three games, including a 60-100 loss to New Mexico away. The teams have met twice before, with Utah State winning both times, most recently 92-62 on 7 December 2024. Pythia projects a score of 89-66, with a 97% probability that Utah State will win and a 3% chance for Utah Tech, and a total of 154.8 points; the home team line is 89-66 and the model gives a 1% probability of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Utah State winWon
97.1%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge+2.6pp
Utah Tech winLost
2.9%fair 34.75
Best odds34.00
Implied5.5%
Edge-2.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Utah State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Over 151
Over 151
59.3%
@ 1.43-5.6pp
Under 151
40.7%
@ 2.65+5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 156 · main lineActual: Over 156
Over 156
46.7%
@ 1.90-3.3pp
Under 156
53.3%
@ 1.92+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 161Actual: Over 161
Over 161
34.4%
@ 2.50-3.1pp
Under 161
65.6%
@ 1.50+3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Utah State total 86Actual: Utah State over 86
Over 86
61.3%
Under 86
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah State total 90 · main lineActual: Utah State over 90
Over 90
44.6%
@ 1.85-5.7pp
Under 90
55.4%
@ 1.87+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Utah State total 94Actual: Utah State over 94
Over 94
28.9%
Under 94
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Tech total 60Actual: Utah Tech over 60
Over 60
73.4%
Under 60
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Tech total 64 · main lineActual: Utah Tech over 64
Over 64
58.2%
@ 1.85+8.2pp
Under 64
41.8%
@ 1.85-8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Utah Tech total 68Actual: Utah Tech over 68
Over 68
41.6%
Under 68
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Utah State -29Actual: Utah State -29
UTAH -29
no forecast
@ 2.35
UTAH +29
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Bet365
2.35
UTAH
Bet365
1.54
Spread Utah State -26 · main lineActual: Utah State -26
UTAH -26
no forecast
@ 1.95
UTAH +26
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
SBO
1.78
UTAH
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.80
Spread Utah State -23Actual: Utah State -23
UTAH -23
48.8%
@ 1.60-9.1pp
UTAH +23
51.2%
@ 2.20+9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Bet365
1.60
UTAH
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Utah StateUtah Tech
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Utah State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Utah State win
UTAH win
no forecast
@ 1.09
UTAH win
no forecast
@ 7.60
2nd half Spread Utah State -11.5 · main lineActual: Utah State -11.5
UTAH -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
UTAH +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Utah State 2nd half total 46.5 · main lineActual: Utah State over 46.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Utah Tech 2nd half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Utah Tech over 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread Utah State -12.5Actual: Utah State -12.5
UTAH -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
UTAH +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Utah State (regulation)
UTAH
no forecast
@ 1.10
Draw
no forecast
@ 27.00
UTAH
no forecast
@ 7.30
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Utah State under 98.5
83.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Utah State under 94.5
72.1%
1.44
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Utah State under 97.5
81.3%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Utah State under 96.5
78.5%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Utah State under 95.5
75.4%
1.39
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 60.5
70.9%
1.43
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Utah State under 99.5
86.2%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Utah State (regulation)
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Under 165
74.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 58.5
77.4%
1.25
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Utah State over 71.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Utah Tech over 59.5
74.3%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Utah Tech over 57.5
80.3%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Under 165.5
74.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Utah State over 70.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 181.5
95.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Utah State over 72.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 163
70.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Lost
Utah State win
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
78.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Under 177.5
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 54.5
87.6%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Under 164
72.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Over 129.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 163.5
70.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Under 176.5
91.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Utah State over 74.5
92.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Utah Tech over 55.5
85.4%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Utah State over 73.5
93.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Utah Tech over 53.5
89.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 172.5
86.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
Under 164.5
72.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Under 179.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 56.5
83.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
76.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Lost
Utah State -4.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 131.5
92.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 134.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Utah State over 75.5
90.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Utah State over 76.5
89.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 171.5
85.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
Utah Tech under 79.5
91.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
Over 132.5
91.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Under 174.5
89.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
Over 144.5
73.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Over 139.5
82.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Utah State -7.5
90.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Utah State over 78.5
85.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Utah State over 77.5
87.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Over 136.5
87.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Utah Tech under 77.5
87.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
Under 169.5
82.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Lost
Utah State over 80.5
79.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Utah State -10.5
85.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Over 137.5
85.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Utah Tech under 74.5
80.4%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Lost
Utah State over 79.5
82.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Over 141.5
79.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Utah State over 82.5
73.6%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Utah Tech under 75.5
83.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Lost
Utah Tech under 73.5
77.5%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Lost
Utah State over 81.5
76.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Utah State -15.5
73.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Utah Tech under 71.5
71.1%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Lost
Over 142.5
77.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Utah Tech under 72.5
74.4%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Lost
Utah State -12.5
81.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Utah State over 83.5
70.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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