Central Michigan hosts Youngstown State on 10 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the Pythia model designating Central Michigan as the clear favourite at 79% versus 21% for Youngstown State, reflecting the Wolverines' undefeated 2-0 season record, 88.0 points per game and only 64.0 allowed, and their 65th league position, while the Penguins sit at 248th with a 1-1 record, 72.0 points per game and 80.0 allowed. Central Michigan's single home game saw a 93-50 victory over Alma Scots, while their last five games include three wins and two losses, and they have yet to lose at home; Youngstown State's road record is 1-1, with a 72.0/80.0 average, and their last five games feature one win and four losses, including a 79-71 win over St. Bonaventure. Historically, the teams have met three times, with Youngstown State winning twice and Central Michigan once, the most recent being a 76-65 defeat for the Wolverines on 21 December 2022. Pythia projects a 80-71 score, 151.7 total points, a -3.5 home line with a 70% chance of covering, a 152.5 total line with a 47% over probability, and a 4% overtime likelihood, underscoring Central Michigan's statistical advantage in this matchup.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Central Michigan winWon
78.8%fair 1.27
Best odds1.64
Implied60.7%
Edge+18.1pp
Youngstown State winLost
21.2%fair 4.71
Best odds2.46
Implied39.3%
Edge-18.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Central Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
59.5%
@ 1.47-3.0pp
Under 147.5
40.5%
@ 2.45+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
47.4%
@ 1.90-2.6pp
Under 152.5
52.6%
@ 1.90+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
35.6%
@ 2.45-1.9pp
Under 157.5
64.4%
@ 1.47+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Central Michigan total 74Actual: Central Michigan over 74
Over 74
74.5%
Under 74
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Michigan total 78 · main lineActual: Central Michigan over 78
Over 78
59.7%
@ 1.85+9.7pp
Under 78
40.3%
@ 1.85-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Central Michigan total 82Actual: Central Michigan over 82
Over 82
43.2%
Under 82
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Youngstown State total 70Actual: Youngstown State over 70
Over 70
54.7%
Under 70
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Youngstown State total 74 · main lineActual: Youngstown State over 74
Over 74
38.7%
@ 1.85-11.3pp
Under 74
61.3%
@ 1.85+11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Youngstown State total 78Push
Over 78
24.7%
Under 78
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Central Michigan -6.5Actual: Central Michigan -6.5
CENT -6.5
59.5%
@ 2.30+19.4pp
YOUN +6.5
40.5%
@ 1.55-19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
CENT
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
YOUN
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
Spread Central Michigan -3.5 · main lineActual: Central Michigan -3.5
CENT -3.5
70.2%
@ 1.90+20.2pp
YOUN +3.5
29.8%
@ 1.90-20.2pp
Best 5 market prices
CENT
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
YOUN
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Central Michigan -0.5Actual: Central Michigan -0.5
CENT -0.5
78.8%
YOUN +0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
CENT
No market prices yet.
YOUN
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Central MichiganYoungstown State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Central Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Youngstown State win
CENT win
no forecast
@ 1.72
YOUN win
no forecast
@ 2.15
2nd half Spread Central Michigan -1.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State +1.5
CENT -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
YOUN +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Central Michigan (regulation)
CENT
no forecast
@ 1.78
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
YOUN
no forecast
@ 2.20
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Central Michigan -2
75.7%
1.68
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Central Michigan -3
72.3%
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Central Michigan (regulation)
76.5%
1.60
Betano
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.58
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Central Michigan -3.5
70.2%
1.84
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
+20.2pp
Won
Central Michigan -1.5
76.6%
1.63
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Central Michigan -1
78.3%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Central Michigan -2.5
73.0%
1.75
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.74
1xBet
1.73
-
+19.5pp
Won
Central Michigan win
78.8%
1.57
1xBet
1.64
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.55
WilliamHill
1.53
+18.1pp
Won
Central Michigan +1
80.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Central Michigan +1.5
80.6%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Central Michigan +2
82.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Central Michigan +2.5
83.3%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Central Michigan +3
84.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Central Michigan +3.5
85.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Central Michigan +6.5
90.4%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Central Michigan +4.5
87.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Central Michigan +4
86.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Central Michigan +5.5
88.9%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Youngstown State under 80.5
81.5%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Youngstown State under 77.5
73.0%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Youngstown State under 78.5
76.1%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Youngstown State under 79.5
78.9%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Central Michigan over 74.5
72.1%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Central Michigan over 73.5
75.3%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Central Michigan over 72.5
78.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Central Michigan over 70.5
83.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.2%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Under 177.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Central Michigan under 97.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
89.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Over 127.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
74.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
Under 167.5
83.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
Youngstown State over 57.5
91.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
87.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Youngstown State over 59.5
87.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Over 137.5
80.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Over 142.5
70.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Central Michigan under 87.5
76.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Lost
Youngstown State over 61.5
83.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Youngstown State over 63.5
77.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Youngstown State over 64.5
74.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Youngstown State over 65.5
71.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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