Charlotte hosts Georgia State on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Charlotte the clear favourite, rating them 84% to win largely because of their 1-0 record, 78.0 points per game and only 70.0 allowed, placing them 181st in the league. Georgia State comes into the game 0-1, 73.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed, 224th in the standings, and has lost all five of its recent outings. Charlotte's last five games include a 78-70 win over Indiana State, a 64-86 loss to South Florida and a 83-78 win over UAB, while Georgia State's recent results are three straight defeats to Bowling Green, Louisiana Lafayette and Old Dominion. The teams have met four times before, splitting the series 2-2, with Charlotte's most recent victory 77-63 on 14 December 2024. Pythia projects a 80-69 score, giving Charlotte 80 points and Georgia State 69, for a total of 149.5 points; the home team's line is -11.5 with a 50% chance of covering, and the over line of 151.5 has a 45% probability. The model estimates a 3% chance of overtime, and the game will be decided by Charlotte's superior offensive and defensive numbers.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charlotte winWon
84.2%fair 1.19
Best odds1.14
Implied85.0%
Edge-0.8pp
Georgia State winLost
15.8%fair 6.34
Best odds6.50
Implied15.0%
Edge+0.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Charlotte) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Over 138.5
Over 138.5
74.8%
@ 1.52+9.0pp
Under 138.5
25.2%
@ 3.20-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 143.5 · main lineActual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
64.1%
@ 1.95+14.3pp
Under 143.5
35.9%
@ 2.20-14.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.20
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
52.1%
@ 2.55+6.9pp
Under 148.5
47.9%
@ 1.80-6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
WilliamHill
2.00
SBO
2.00
Under
BetVictor
1.80
SBO
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathon Be
1.67
📊 3. Team Totals
Charlotte total 74Actual: Charlotte over 74
Over 74
75.1%
Under 74
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlotte total 78 · main lineActual: Charlotte under 78
Over 78
60.3%
@ 1.85+10.0pp
Under 78
39.7%
@ 1.87-10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Charlotte total 82Actual: Charlotte under 82
Over 82
43.7%
@ 1.85-6.3pp
Under 82
56.3%
@ 1.85+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Georgia State total 62Actual: Georgia State over 62
Over 62
76.1%
Under 62
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Georgia State total 66 · main lineActual: Georgia State over 66
Over 66
61.7%
@ 1.85+11.6pp
Under 66
38.3%
@ 1.86-11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Georgia State total 70Actual: Georgia State under 70
Over 70
45.5%
@ 1.85-4.5pp
Under 70
54.5%
@ 1.85+4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Charlotte -14Actual: Georgia State +14
CHAR -14
40.4%
@ 2.25-0.7pp
GEOR +14
59.6%
@ 1.57+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
CHAR
Bet365
2.25
GEOR
Bet365
1.57
Spread Charlotte -11 · main lineActual: Georgia State +11
CHAR -11
51.5%
@ 1.88+0.5pp
GEOR +11
48.5%
@ 1.96-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
CHAR
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.74
GEOR
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread Charlotte -8Actual: Charlotte -8
CHAR -8
62.7%
@ 1.47-0.8pp
GEOR +8
37.3%
@ 2.55+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
CHAR
Bet365
1.47
GEOR
Bet365
2.55
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
CharlotteGeorgia State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Georgia State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Georgia StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#84
L
35-46
35
46
-11
H05/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H07/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A13/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A14/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H20/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H21/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H25/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
L
31-45
31
45
-14
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A03/03
NCAA
Bowling Green
#167
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H02/11
NCAA
77.1Avg total
35.6Scored
41.5Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 75.5
Last 30 (30)
37.2
39.0
76.3
-1.8
33%
53%
Last 30 at home (15)
37.9
38.8
76.7
-0.9
27%
67%
Last 30 away (15)
36.5
39.3
75.8
-2.7
40%
40%
Last 10 (10)
35.6
41.5
77.1
-5.9
10%
70%
Last 5 (5)
37.8
44.2
82.0
-6.4
0%
100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)
37.2
39.8
77.0
-2.5
30%
50%
vs Similar (6)
33.5
42.0
75.5
-8.5
17%
67%
vs Weaker (2)
46.5
26.0
72.5
+20.5
100%
50%
This opponent (Charlotte) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Charlotte win
CHAR win
no forecast
@ 1.38
GEOR win
no forecast
@ 3.10
2nd half Spread Charlotte -4.5 · main lineActual: Charlotte -4.5
CHAR -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
GEOR +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Charlotte 2nd half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Charlotte under 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Georgia State 2nd half total 35.5 · main lineActual: Georgia State under 35.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Spread Charlotte -5.5Actual: Charlotte -5.5
CHAR -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
GEOR +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Charlotte (regulation)
CHAR
no forecast
@ 1.42
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
GEOR
no forecast
@ 3.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 141
70.1%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Over 140.5
70.7%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.41
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
76.8%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Charlotte over 74.5
72.7%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Over 135.5
80.4%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Georgia State over 63.5
70.4%
1.55
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Georgia State over 61.5
76.9%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Over 139.5
72.8%
1.47
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Over 138.5
74.8%
1.42
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Charlotte over 70.5
84.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Charlotte over 73.5
75.9%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Georgia State over 60.5
79.8%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 136.5
78.6%
1.31
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Georgia State over 58.5
85.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Georgia State over 62.5
73.8%
1.38
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Georgia State over 59.5
82.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Georgia State over 56.5
89.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Charlotte over 71.5
81.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Georgia State over 54.5
92.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 140
72.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Charlotte over 72.5
78.9%
1.25
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.15
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 139
74.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Georgia State over 53.5
93.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+4.7pp
-
Georgia State over 55.5
90.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Charlotte over 69.5
86.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 159.5
73.2%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Charlotte under 86.5
72.8%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Georgia State over 57.5
87.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Charlotte +8.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 158
70.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 158.5
71.2%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 159
72.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Charlotte (regulation)
82.3%
1.14
Betano
1.15
Marathon Bet
1.12
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Charlotte under 97.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Charlotte under 98.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 176.5
94.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 126.5
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Charlotte under 95.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Charlotte -5.5
70.8%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Charlotte -4.5
74.0%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
86.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Georgia State +21.5
81.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Charlotte -3.5
77.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Charlotte under 93.5
90.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Charlotte +3.5
89.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Georgia State +18
72.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Georgia State +18.5
73.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Georgia State +19
75.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Charlotte -4
76.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Charlotte -5
73.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Georgia State +19.5
76.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Georgia State +17.5
70.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Charlotte -1.5
82.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Georgia State under 82.5
90.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Charlotte win
84.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Marathon Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
WilliamHill
1.11
-0.8pp
Won
Charlotte under 91.5
86.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Georgia State under 74.5
70.8%
1.27
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Under 171.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Georgia State under 75.5
74.0%
1.21
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Georgia State under 80.5
86.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Charlotte under 88.5
79.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Charlotte under 89.5
81.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Charlotte under 87.5
76.0%
1.20
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Under 166.5
85.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Georgia State under 78.5
82.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Georgia State under 76.5
77.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Georgia State under 77.5
79.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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