PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Clemson faces Citadel on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model clearly favouring Clemson at 93% to 7% as the higher-scoring side with a 3-1 record, 84.2 points per game and 76.8 points allowed per game, placing 131st in the league; Citadel also sits 3-1 but with a 90.0 points per game and 64.5 allowed per game, ranked 90th. Clemson has won three of its last five games, including a 92-77 victory over North Dakota, while Citadel has also won three of five, highlighted by a 131-50 win over Virginia-Lynchburg. The teams have met once, with Clemson winning 80-69 in 2022. Pythia projects a 81-64 score for Clemson, a total of 144.1 points, and a 2% chance of overtime; Clemson is expected to cover the spread with a 93% probability. The game ends with Clemson's 81 points against Citadel's 64, a concrete illustration of the model's assessment.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 84.2 | 76.8 | 161.0 | +7.5 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 84.2 | 76.8 | 161.0 | +7.5 | 75% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 75.2 | 73.1 | 148.3 | +2.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.6 | 74.8 | 154.4 | +4.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 65.0 | 71.7 | 136.7 | -6.7 | 33% |
| vs Similar (13) | 70.2 | 69.0 | 139.2 | +1.2 | 54% |
| vs Weaker (14) | 74.7 | 66.5 | 141.2 | +8.2 | 86% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 90.0 | 64.5 | 154.5 | +25.5 | 75% |
| Season at home (2) | 115.5 | 53.5 | 169.0 | +62.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 64.5 | 75.5 | 140.0 | -11.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 81.5 | 75.9 | 157.4 | +5.6 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.2 | 68.2 | 155.4 | +19.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 68.7 | 81.8 | 150.5 | -13.1 | 26% |
| vs Similar (6) | 70.5 | 61.8 | 132.3 | +8.7 | 67% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 91.6 | 66.2 | 157.8 | +25.4 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.6 | 31.4 | 66.1 | +3.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 35.6 | 31.3 | 66.9 | +4.3 | 61% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 33.2 | 31.6 | 64.8 | +1.6 | 58% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.8 | 33.9 | 68.7 | +0.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.6 | 35.6 | 72.2 | +1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 28.7 | 35.7 | 64.3 | -7.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 34.2 | 30.5 | 64.7 | +3.6 | 54% | - |
| vs Weaker (14) | 36.4 | 31.4 | 67.7 | +5.0 | 71% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.5 | 35.9 | 70.3 | -1.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 36.4 | 33.7 | 70.1 | +2.8 | 58% | - |
| Last 30 away (18) | 33.2 | 37.3 | 70.5 | -4.2 | 28% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.0 | 35.7 | 73.7 | +2.3 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 31.0 | 70.6 | +8.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 31.9 | 39.8 | 71.8 | -7.9 | 21% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 34.5 | 26.7 | 61.2 | +7.8 | 83% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 44.0 | 31.8 | 75.8 | +12.2 | 60% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Georgetown | 78-85 |
| 10/11/26 | H | North Dakota | 92-77 |
| 07/11/26 | H | American University | 82-73 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Stetson | 85-72 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Iowa | 61-67 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Duke | 61-73 |
| 13/03/26 | A | North Carolina | 80-79 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Wake Forest | 71-62 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Georgia Tech | 79-76 |
| 04/03/26 | A | North Carolina | 63-67 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | North Florida | 77-74 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Virginia-Lynchburg | 131-50 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Erskine | 100-57 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Loyola Chicago | 52-77 |
| 07/03/26 | A | East Tennessee St | 76-83 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Chattanooga Mocs | 88-85 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Wofford | 93-90 OT |
| 25/02/26 | A | Furman | 51-72 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Chattanooga Mocs | 72-93 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Samford | 75-78 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWL | 75% |
| Home | WWWL | 75% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 75% | 75% | - |
| Points / game | 84.2 | 84.2 | - |
| Allowed / game | 76.8 | 76.8 | - |
| Point differential | +7.5 | +7.5 | - |
| Avg total | 161.0 | 161.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 50% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWW | 75% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 90.0 | 115.5 | 64.5 |
| Allowed / game | 64.5 | 53.5 | 75.5 |
| Point differential | +25.5 | +62.0 | -11.0 |
| Avg total | 154.5 | 169.0 | 140.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  SMU Mustangs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.5 | +24.5 |
| 3 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 5 |  Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 91.8 | 69.6 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 67.8 | +22.0 |
| 7 |  NC State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 62.2 | +21.5 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.2 | 64.5 | +18.8 |
| 9 |  Georgia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.5 | 70.8 | +11.8 |
| 10 |  California | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 85.8 | 74.8 | +11.0 |
| 11 |  Duke | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 57.0 | +33.0 |
| 12 |  Miami (FL) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 59.2 | +24.0 |
| 13 |  Wake Forest | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 76.2 | 62.8 | +13.5 |
| 14 |  North Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 70.8 | +13.0 |
| 15 |  Stanford | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.2 | +9.2 |
| 16 | Clemson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 76.8 | +7.5 |
| 17 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Furman | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 88.0 | 68.8 | +19.2 |
| 2 | Citadel | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 64.5 | +25.5 |
| 3 |  VMI | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.8 | 70.4 | +7.4 |
| 4 |  Western Carolina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 89.8 | 74.5 | +15.2 |
| 5 |  NC Greensboro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 70.8 | +10.2 |
| 6 |  Chattanooga Mocs | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.2 | 79.5 | +4.8 |
| 7 |  Wofford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.4 | 82.0 | +0.4 |
| 8 |  Mercer | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 78.2 | 80.6 | -2.4 |
| 9 |  Samford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 78.7 | -1.3 |
| 10 |  East Tennessee St | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.3 | 68.3 | -3.0 |
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