North Florida hosts the Citadel on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Florida Bulls the clear favourite, rating them 78% to win because their season record of 1-2 is paired with a points per game of 61.7 and an allowed average of 88.7, while the Citadel's 2-1 record and 94.3 points per game with 61.3 allowed give the model a 22% chance for the away side. North Florida has struggled in its first three games, losing 51-89 to Miami (FL), 63-114 to UCLA, and only winning 71-63 over California Baptist, and their last five games include one win and four losses; the Citadel, meanwhile, has won three of its last five, including a 131-50 victory over Virginia-Lynchburg and a 100-57 win over Erskine, but lost 52-77 to Loyola Chicago. In head-to-head history the two teams have met once, with the last meeting as noted. Pythia projects a final score of 81-72, a total of 152.9 points, and gives North Florida a 65% chance to cover the home line of -4.5; the over on the 155.0 line has a 44% probability, and the game has a 4% chance of overtime. The Citadel's lone road loss came at 52-77, a stark contrast to their dominant home performances.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
North Florida winLost
77.8%fair 1.29
Best odds1.56
Implied61.8%
Edge+16.0pp
Citadel winWon
22.2%fair 4.50
Best odds2.60
Implied38.2%
Edge-16.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (North Florida) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
55.2%
@ 1.52-6.2pp
Under 150.5
44.8%
@ 2.40+6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 155.5 · main lineActual: Under 155.5
Over 155.5
43.1%
@ 2.00-6.9pp
Under 155.5
56.9%
@ 1.91+6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
Over/Under 160.5Actual: Under 160.5
Over 160.5
31.6%
@ 2.70-4.7pp
Under 160.5
68.4%
@ 1.50+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.41
📊 3. Team Totals
North Florida total 75Actual: North Florida under 75
Over 75
72.5%
Under 75
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Florida total 79 · main lineActual: North Florida under 79
Over 79
57.3%
@ 1.85+7.0pp
Under 79
42.7%
@ 1.86-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
North Florida total 83Actual: North Florida under 83
Over 83
40.8%
Under 83
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Citadel total 71Actual: Citadel over 71
Over 71
53.9%
Under 71
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Citadel total 75 · main lineActual: Citadel over 75
Over 75
37.9%
@ 1.85-12.1pp
Under 75
62.1%
@ 1.87+12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Citadel total 79Actual: Citadel under 79
Over 79
24.1%
Under 79
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread North Florida -7Actual: Citadel +7
NORT -7
56.5%
@ 2.35+16.9pp
CITA +7
43.5%
@ 1.54-16.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Bet365
2.35
CITA
Bet365
1.54
Spread North Florida -4 · main lineActual: Citadel +4
NORT -4
67.9%
@ 1.88+17.0pp
CITA +4
32.1%
@ 1.95-17.0pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathon Be
1.79
CITA
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.92
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.90
SBO
1.85
Spread North Florida -1Actual: Citadel +1
NORT -1
77.3%
@ 1.54+16.9pp
CITA +1
22.7%
@ 2.35-16.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Bet365
1.54
CITA
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
North FloridaCitadel
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North FloridaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A12/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A14/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H20/02
NCAA
Stetson
#304
W
40-29
40
29
+11
A21/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
L
27-36
27
36
-9
H27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
20-49
20
49
-29
H28/02
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
L
35-48
35
48
-13
A05/03
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A04/11
NCAA
UCLA
#3
L
20-52
20
52
-32
A07/11
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#92
L
25-44
25
44
-19
A10/11
NCAA
69.4Avg total
30.2Scored
39.2Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 72.5
Last 30 (30)
36.1
41.3
77.4
-5.2
30%
63%
Last 30 at home (13)
39.4
38.1
77.5
+1.3
46%
69%
Last 30 away (17)
33.6
43.7
77.3
-10.1
18%
59%
Last 10 (10)
30.2
39.2
69.4
-9.0
30%
20%
Last 5 (5)
26.6
44.8
71.4
-18.2
20%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)
34.5
42.7
77.2
-8.2
23%
62%
vs Similar (3)
41.3
34.7
76.0
+6.7
67%
67%
vs Weaker (1)
62.0
25.0
87.0
+37.0
100%
100%
This opponent (Citadel) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
North Florida -1.5
75.5%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
North Florida -1
77.3%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Lost
North Florida (regulation)
75.5%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
+16.3pp
Lost
North Florida -2
74.6%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Lost
North Florida win
77.8%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.51
WilliamHill
1.50
+16.0pp
Lost
North Florida -3
71.1%
1.75
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.71
+15.9pp
Lost
North Florida +2.5
82.5%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Lost
North Florida +1
79.3%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Lost
North Florida +1.5
79.7%
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Lost
North Florida -2.5
71.9%
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
-
+14.9pp
Lost
North Florida +2
82.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
Citadel under 77.5
70.4%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
North Florida +4.5
86.4%
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Citadel under 78.5
73.6%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
North Florida +3.5
84.4%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
North Florida +3
84.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Push
Citadel under 79.5
76.6%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Citadel under 80.5
79.4%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
North Florida +6.5
89.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
North Florida +11.5
95.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
North Florida +16.5
97.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
North Florida over 73.5
76.5%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.0%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
North Florida +21.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
North Florida over 75.5
70.0%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
North Florida over 74.5
73.4%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
North Florida over 70.5
84.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
North Florida over 69.5
86.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
70.5%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
72.5%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 179.5
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Under 162
71.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Under 174.5
90.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 164.5
76.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Under 169.5
84.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Citadel +23.5
90.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 129.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Citadel over 58.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
North Florida under 89.5
80.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Over 134.5
86.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Citadel over 60.5
87.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Citadel +18.5
80.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Over 139.5
79.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Citadel over 62.5
82.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Citadel over 64.5
76.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Citadel over 65.5
73.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Citadel over 66.5
70.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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