Colorado State faces Idaho in the NCAA on 6 November 2026, with the model favouring the Rams as the clear favourite because they have a 1-0 record, average 84.0 points per game and allow 74.0, while Idaho also stands 1-0 but averages 97.0 points and allows only 56.0, yet the Rams' balanced defence and higher league position at 164 outweigh Idaho's offensive firepower. Colorado State's single game shows a 1-0 record, 84.0 points scored, 74.0 allowed, and a 1-0 home record; their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 84-74 victory over Montana State at home. Idaho's single game also yields a 1-0 record, 97.0 points scored, 56.0 allowed, and a 4-1 record over the last five games, highlighted by a 97-56 win over George Fox at home. The teams have not met before, so there is no head-to-head history to consider. Pythia projects an 80% chance for Colorado State to win and 20% for Idaho, with a projected score of 81-71 and a total of 151.4 points; the Rams are under a -16.5 spread with a 27% chance to cover, while the over on a 148.5 line has a 57% probability, and the game has a 4% chance of overtime. Colorado State's recent home win over Montana State sets the tone for the matchup.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colorado State winWon
80.4%fair 1.24
Best odds1.06
Implied91.6%
Edge-11.2pp
Idaho winLost
19.6%fair 5.09
Best odds13.00
Implied8.4%
Edge+11.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Colorado State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146Actual: Under 146
Over 146
62.8%
@ 1.43-2.2pp
Under 146
37.2%
@ 2.65+2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 151 · main lineActual: Under 151
Over 151
50.5%
@ 1.91+0.2pp
Under 151
49.5%
@ 1.93-0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Over/Under 156Actual: Under 156
Over 156
38.2%
@ 2.50+0.7pp
Under 156
61.8%
@ 1.50-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Colorado State total 78.5Actual: Colorado State under 78.5
Over 78.5
58.2%
@ 1.29-13.4pp
Under 78.5
41.8%
@ 3.25+13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.25
Colorado State total 82.5 · main lineActual: Colorado State under 82.5
Over 82.5
42.3%
@ 1.83-10.6pp
Under 82.5
57.7%
@ 2.05+10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.83
Colorado State total 86.5Actual: Colorado State under 86.5
Over 86.5
27.6%
@ 2.22-13.2pp
Under 86.5
72.4%
@ 1.53+13.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.53
Idaho total 63.5Actual: Idaho over 63.5
Over 63.5
76.2%
@ 1.42+12.2pp
Under 63.5
23.8%
@ 2.52-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.52
Idaho total 67.5 · main lineActual: Idaho under 67.5
Over 67.5
62.4%
@ 1.91+12.4pp
Under 67.5
37.6%
@ 1.89-12.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Idaho total 71.5Actual: Idaho under 71.5
Over 71.5
46.9%
@ 2.70+13.4pp
Under 71.5
53.1%
@ 1.36-13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.36
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Colorado State -19.5Actual: Idaho +19.5
COLO -19.5
19.3%
@ 2.25-21.8pp
IDAH +19.5
80.7%
@ 1.57+21.8pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
IDAH
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Spread Colorado State -16.5 · main lineActual: Idaho +16.5
COLO -16.5
27.1%
@ 1.96-22.0pp
IDAH +16.5
72.9%
@ 1.89+22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
IDAH
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Spread Colorado State -13.5Actual: Idaho +13.5
COLO -13.5
36.5%
@ 1.54-24.0pp
IDAH +13.5
63.5%
@ 2.35+24.0pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
IDAH
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Colorado StateIdaho
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Colorado State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Colorado State win
COLO win
no forecast
@ 1.25
IDAH win
no forecast
@ 4.00
2nd half Spread Colorado State -6.5 · main lineActual: Colorado State -6.5
COLO -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
IDAH +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Colorado State (regulation)
COLO
no forecast
@ 1.29
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.50
IDAH
no forecast
@ 4.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Idaho +16
72.0%
1.93
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
-
+23.7pp
Won
Idaho +19
80.3%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Idaho +16.5
72.9%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
+22.0pp
Won
Idaho +19.5
80.7%
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Idaho +17
75.0%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
-
+21.7pp
Won
Idaho +20
82.6%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Idaho +20.5
83.0%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
Idaho +21
84.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Idaho +17.5
75.7%
1.75
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
-
+20.1pp
Won
Idaho +18
77.7%
1.67
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Idaho +21.5
85.0%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Idaho +22
86.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Idaho +18.5
78.3%
1.64
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.61
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Idaho +22.5
86.9%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Idaho +23
88.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Idaho +23.5
88.5%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Idaho +24
89.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Idaho +24.5
90.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Colorado State under 86.5
72.4%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Colorado State under 88.5
78.7%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Colorado State under 87.5
75.7%
1.45
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Idaho over 63.5
76.2%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Idaho over 64.5
73.0%
1.51
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Colorado State under 89.5
81.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Idaho over 61.5
81.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Colorado State under 90.5
84.1%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Idaho over 62.5
79.1%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Colorado State under 91.5
86.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Colorado State under 94.5
91.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Colorado State under 93.5
90.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Idaho over 60.5
84.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Colorado State under 95.5
93.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Colorado State under 97.5
95.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Idaho over 58.5
88.7%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Colorado State under 99.5
97.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Colorado State under 101.5
98.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Idaho over 57.5
90.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Idaho over 56.5
92.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Idaho over 52.5
96.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Idaho over 54.5
94.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Colorado State under 103.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Idaho over 50.5
97.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 176.5
93.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 126.5
93.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Under 171.5
88.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 131.5
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Under 161.5
73.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
82.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Over 141.5
72.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 136.5
81.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Colorado State +3.5
86.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Idaho under 80.5
82.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Colorado State (regulation)
78.2%
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.06
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Idaho under 78.5
77.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Idaho under 76.5
71.3%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
Idaho under 77.5
74.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
Colorado State win
80.4%
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.05
Pinnacle
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-11.2pp
Won
Colorado State -1.5
78.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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