PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Colorado State will host North Dakota State on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model clearly favouring the Aggies at 82% to 18%, a reflection of their undefeated 3-0 record and 83.0 points per game against 70.7 allowed, placing them 81st in the league, while the Jackrabbits sit 323rd with a 1-3 record, 76.0 points per game and 83.5 allowed; Colorado State has won all three of its home games, averaging the same 83.0 points and 70.7 allowed, and has won four of its last five, including a 87-71 victory over Portland State, a 78-67 win over Idaho, and a 84-74 win over Montana State, whereas North Dakota State has lost all three of its road contests, averaging 71.3 points and conceding 91.7, and has only one win in its last five, with recent defeats to CSU Bakersfield, San Francisco and St. Marys (CA); the Pythia projection calls for an 81-71 score, 152.6 total points, and a 3% chance of overtime, with Colorado State covering the line if one were set, and the over probability at the given total line. The Aggies' last home win over Portland State on 11 November 2026 remains a concrete highlight of their current form.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 83.0 | 70.7 | 153.7 | +12.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 83.0 | 70.7 | 153.7 | +12.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.9 | 71.5 | 148.4 | +5.4 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.6 | 69.2 | 144.8 | +6.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 72.0 | 75.7 | 147.7 | -3.7 | 50% |
| vs Similar (10) | 67.9 | 71.6 | 139.5 | -3.7 | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 79.3 | 69.4 | 148.7 | +9.9 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 76.0 | 83.5 | 159.5 | -7.5 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 90.0 | 59.0 | 149.0 | +31.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 71.3 | 91.7 | 163.0 | -20.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.9 | 75.0 | 149.9 | -0.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 85.2 | 159.4 | -11.0 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 71.3 | 91.7 | 163.0 | -20.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar (4) | 67.5 | 78.8 | 146.2 | -11.2 | 25% |
| vs Weaker (21) | 81.7 | 70.0 | 151.8 | +11.7 | 90% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.7 | 32.9 | 68.6 | +2.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.8 | 31.8 | 68.6 | +5.1 | 65% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 34.2 | 34.4 | 68.5 | -0.2 | 54% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.6 | 33.0 | 68.6 | +2.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.2 | 33.6 | 68.8 | +1.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 33.0 | 32.7 | 65.7 | +0.3 | 67% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 32.8 | 33.5 | 66.3 | -0.7 | 30% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 37.2 | 33.1 | 70.3 | +4.2 | 77% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.4 | 33.8 | 72.2 | +4.5 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.4 | 30.5 | 69.9 | +8.9 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.3 | 37.2 | 74.5 | +0.1 | 53% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.7 | 36.1 | 69.8 | -2.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.4 | 39.8 | 70.2 | -9.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 29.7 | 42.7 | 72.3 | -13.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 29.8 | 42.5 | 72.2 | -12.8 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (21) | 40.4 | 31.3 | 71.7 | +9.0 | 81% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Portland State | 87-71 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Idaho | 78-67 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Montana State | 84-74 |
| 13/03/26 | A | San Diego State | 62-71 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Fresno State | 67-63 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Boise State | 67-78 |
| 05/03/26 | A | New Mexico | 82-74 |
| 28/02/26 | A | San Jose State | 85-73 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Fresno State | 74-70 |
| 21/02/26 | H | San Diego State | 83-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | CSU Bakersfield | 80-91 |
| 07/11/26 | A | San Francisco | 70-79 |
| 05/11/26 | A | St. Marys (CA) | 64-105 |
| 03/11/26 | H | MN-Crookston | 90-59 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Michigan State | 67-92 |
| 09/03/26 | H | North Dakota | 70-62 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Nebraska O. | 74-50 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Oral Roberts | 76-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | North Dakota | 96-63 |
| 27/02/26 | A | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 62-84 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 83.0 | 83.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 70.7 | 70.7 | - |
| Point differential | +12.3 | +12.3 | - |
| Avg total | 153.7 | 153.7 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLL | 25% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.0 | 90.0 | 71.3 |
| Allowed / game | 83.5 | 59.0 | 91.7 |
| Point differential | -7.5 | +31.0 | -20.3 |
| Avg total | 159.5 | 149.0 | 163.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boise State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 114.3 | 71.0 | +43.3 |
| 2 |  Utah State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 66.7 | +34.0 |
| 3 |  New Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 64.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  Grand Canyon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.3 | 77.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  San Diego State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 73.0 | +16.0 |
| 6 | Colorado State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  UNLV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Air Force | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 83.8 | +9.8 |
| 9 |  Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.7 | 62.0 | +21.7 |
| 10 |  Nevada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 73.3 | +8.3 |
| 11 |  Fresno State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.7 | 84.0 | -1.3 |
| 12 |  San Jose State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 81.7 | +1.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Dakota St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 73.3 | 61.3 | +12.0 |
| 2 |  St. Thomas (Minn.) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 83.8 | 78.0 | +5.8 |
| 3 |  Nebraska O. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 68.5 | 82.2 | -13.8 |
| 4 |  UMKC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 77.8 | -2.4 |
| 5 |  Oral Roberts | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 68.0 | +5.3 |
| 6 |  North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 89.0 | -15.7 |
| 7 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 87.5 | 83.2 | +4.2 |
| 8 | North Dakota St | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.0 | 83.5 | -7.5 |
| 9 |  Denver | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 64.0 | 69.5 | -5.5 |
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