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Dallas Mavericks vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 16 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 01:30
Scheduled
Position#21
Record4-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game113.6
Allowed / game116.9
vs
Position#7
Record6-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game120.0
Allowed / game119.2
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Atlanta Hawks
15 Mar 2027
DAL v ATL
upcoming
16 Oct 2026
DAL111
ATL135
18 Mar 2026
DAL120
ATL135
02 Apr 2025
DAL120
ATL118
04 Apr 2024
DAL109
ATL95
16 Jul 2023
DAL101
ATL80
18 Jan 2023
DAL122
ATL130
06 Feb 2022
DAL103
ATL94
10 Feb 2021
DAL118
ATL117
01 Feb 2020
DAL123
ATL100
12 Dec 2018
DAL114
ATL107
18 Oct 2017
DAL111
ATL117
07 Jan 2017
DAL82
ATL97
09 Dec 2015
DAL95
ATL98
16 Oct 2015
DAL84
ATL91
22 Dec 2014
DAL102
ATL105
30 Oct 2013
DAL118
ATL109
23 Oct 2013
DAL98
ATL88
11 Feb 2013
DAL101
ATL105
29 Jan 2011
DAL102
ATL91
05 Dec 2009
DAL75
ATL80
06 Dec 2008
DAL100
ATL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Atlanta Hawks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
149-128
149
128
+21
H13/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
117-135
117
135
-18
H09/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
132-115
132
115
+17
A11/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
97-101
97
101
-4
H15/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
L
111-135
111
135
-24
H17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
110-128
110
128
-18
A22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
L
106-122
106
122
-16
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
113-109
113
109
+4
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
120-96
120
96
+24
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
116-111
116
111
+5
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
45-34
35-22
39-32
30-40
19-27
26-38
35-34
37-36
28-27
30-24
37-34
37-30
18-24
27-32
18-19
34-26
34-39
20-34
24-29
33-33
26-32
12-38
38-30
34-28
31-32
29-36
29-24
17-30
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
235.1Avg total
117.1Scored
118.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)113.6116.9230.4-3.344%
Season at home (6)111.2116.7227.8-5.533%
Season away (3)118.3117.3235.7+1.067%
Last 10 (10)117.1118.0235.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)113.0113.2226.2-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)115.7126.2241.9-10.622%
vs Similar (7)113.7111.7225.4+2.057%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Atlanta HawksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#1
L
123-132
123
132
-9
H05/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
W
123-116
123
116
+7
A09/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
W
119-117
119
117
+2
A10/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
113-110
113
110
+3
H12/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
135-111
135
111
+24
A17/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#6
W
132-125
132
125
+7
A21/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
114-121
114
121
-7
H25/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
110-120
110
120
-10
A27/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
117-129
117
129
-12
H28/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
W
114-111
114
111
+3
H30/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-32
26-49
37-29
25-22
20-39
42-30
31-26
30-21
31-32
31-28
34-26
23-31
29-28
27-21
23-30
34-31
39-34
34-20
29-24
33-33
28-33
44-29
27-38
33-25
26-30
22-29
33-33
33-29
35-32
31-31
19-28
25-29
25-34
31-35
29-28
32-32
16-28
30-16
43-38
25-29
239.2Avg total
120.0Scored
119.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)120.0119.2239.2+0.860%
Season at home (5)116.2120.6236.8-4.440%
Season away (5)123.8117.8241.6+6.080%
Last 10 (10)120.0119.2239.2+0.860%
Last 5 (5)117.4121.2238.6-3.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)107.7117.4225.1-9.733%
vs Similar (10)120.8117.0237.8+3.870%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)136.0111.6247.6+24.4100%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -3.8-3.8Q2Q2: -5.1-5.1Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: +1.1+1.1
Dallas MavericksAtlanta Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
80-56
80
56
+24
H13/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
45-65
45
65
-20
H09/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A11/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
45-56
45
56
-11
H15/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
L
54-73
54
73
-19
H17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
38-70
38
70
-32
A22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
L
60-68
60
68
-8
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
114.3Avg total
54.2Scored
60.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.561.5118.0-5.137%-
Last 30 at home (14)58.262.6120.8-4.436%-
Last 30 away (16)54.960.6115.6-5.738%-
Last 10 (10)54.260.1114.3-5.940%-
Last 5 (5)52.060.0112.0-8.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)55.662.5118.1-7.030%-
vs Similar (7)59.458.3117.7+1.157%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Atlanta HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#1
L
61-81
61
81
-20
H05/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
L
62-69
62
69
-7
A09/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
W
62-60
62
60
+2
A10/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
56-49
56
49
+7
H12/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
73-54
73
54
+19
A17/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#6
W
72-62
72
62
+10
A21/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
48-59
48
59
-11
H25/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
66-63
66
63
+3
A27/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
56-69
56
69
-13
H28/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H30/10
NBA
121.2Avg total
60.2Scored
61.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.858.9118.7+0.960%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.557.8113.3-2.357%-
Last 30 away (16)63.659.8123.4+3.862%-
Last 10 (10)60.261.0121.2-0.860%-
Last 5 (5)57.659.4117.0-1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)55.361.6116.9-6.333%-
vs Similar (10)61.657.7119.3+3.980%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)69.653.0122.6+16.6100%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 116.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.028.0
56.0%
54.0%56.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.013.6
34.9%
34.9%40.8
🏀 Free throws24.019.3
80.4%
76.4%19.3
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Atlanta Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atlanta Hawks: 117.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.726.9
53.1%
54.0%53.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.314.7
33.9%
34.9%44.1
🏀 Free throws25.219.6
77.8%
76.4%19.6
They take 94.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
WWWLLLLWLW
Atlanta Hawks
WLLLWWWWWL
#21
League position
#7
-3.5
Net rating
-4.1
103.5
Offensive rating
105.1
107.0
Defensive rating
109.3
54.4%
Effective FG%
52.1%
54.0%
Opp. effective FG%
57.5%
14.8%
Turnover %
12.7%
17.2%
Off. rebound %
25.6%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.9%
3-point %
33.9%
64.9%
Assist %
70.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.5 · 105.1Defence107.0 · 109.3Shooting54.4% · 52.1%3-point %34.9% · 33.9%Ball care14.8% · 12.7%Off. rebounds17.2% · 25.6%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Atlanta Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Dallas Mavericks wins
5
Atlanta Hawks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109
25/10/26HSan Antonio Spurs106-122
22/10/26AHouston Rockets110-128
17/10/26HAtlanta Hawks111-135
15/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans97-101
11/10/26AHouston Rockets132-115
09/10/26HHouston Rockets117-135
13/04/26HChicago Bulls149-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26HCleveland Cavaliers114-111
28/10/26HMiami Heat117-129
27/10/26AHouston Rockets110-120
25/10/26HHouston Rockets114-121
21/10/26AOrlando Magic132-125
17/10/26ADallas Mavericks135-111
12/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder113-110
10/10/26AIndiana Pacers119-117
09/10/26ASan Antonio Spurs123-116
05/10/26HMemphis Grizzlies123-132

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW44%
HomeLLLWW33%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %44%33%67%
Points / game113.6111.2118.3
Allowed / game116.9116.7117.3
Point differential-3.3-5.5+1.0
Avg total230.4227.8235.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%17%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Atlanta Hawks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW60%
HomeLWLLW40%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %60%40%80%
Points / game120.0116.2123.8
Allowed / game119.2120.6117.8
Point differential+0.8-4.4+6.0
Avg total239.2236.8241.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
2 Boston Celtics87188%125.5110.9+14.6
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Orlando Magic85362%118.9118.1+0.8
7 Atlanta Hawks106460%120.0119.2+0.8
8 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
9 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Washington Wizards95456%112.7111.2+1.4
12 Minnesota Timberwolves116555%119.2114.2+5.0
13 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
16 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
17 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
18 Toronto Raptors94544%120.4112.6+7.9
19 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
20 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
21 Dallas Mavericks94544%113.6116.9-3.3
22 Charlotte Hornets94544%98.8105.8-7.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Indiana Pacers93633%119.3119.0+0.3
26 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
27 New York Knicks103730%106.9116.0-9.1
28 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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