Dartmouth faces Central Connecticut State on 8 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the model favouring Dartmouth at 95% versus 5% for Central Connecticut State, reflecting Dartmouth's undefeated 2-0 record and 88.0 points per game against only 56.0 allowed, while Central Connecticut State struggles at 0-2 and 52.5 points per game allowed 85.0. Dartmouth has dominated at home, winning 1-0 with 107.0 points per game and 50.0 allowed, and has won two of its last five games, including a 107-50 victory over Framingham State and a 69-62 win over Marist, though it fell 90-111 to Cornell. Central Connecticut State's road record is 0-2, with 52.5 points per game and 85.0 allowed, and it has lost its last three recent outings to Syracuse, Temple and Wagner. Their head-to-head history is even, 1-1, with the last meeting ending 59-50 for Central Connecticut State in December 2022. Dartmouth is projected to win 84-64, a total of 147.9 points, with an 84% chance to cover the home line of -8.5 and a 67% probability of the over on the 141.0 total; overtime is unlikely at 1%. The game will hinge on Dartmouth's offensive firepower against Central Connecticut State's defensive lapses.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dartmouth winLost
95.3%fair 1.05
Best odds1.28
Implied75.3%
Edge+20.1pp
Central Connecticut State winWon
4.7%fair 21.48
Best odds4.05
Implied24.7%
Edge-20.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Dartmouth) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 136Actual: Over 136
Over 136
77.3%
@ 1.40+11.1pp
Under 136
22.7%
@ 2.75-11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 141 · main lineActual: Over 141
Over 141
66.7%
@ 1.89+16.4pp
Under 141
33.3%
@ 2.00-16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.74
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Over/Under 146Actual: Over 146
Over 146
54.5%
@ 2.40+15.7pp
Under 146
45.5%
@ 1.52-15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Dartmouth total 68.5Actual: Dartmouth over 68.5
Over 68.5
no forecast
@ 1.33
Under 68.5
no forecast
@ 2.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.85
Dartmouth total 73 · main lineActual: Dartmouth under 73
Over 73
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 73
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Dartmouth total 77Actual: Dartmouth under 77
Over 77
76.3%
Under 77
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Connecticut State total 62Actual: Central Connecticut State over 62
Over 62
58.2%
Under 62
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Connecticut State total 66 · main lineActual: Central Connecticut State over 66
Over 66
41.6%
@ 1.84-8.7pp
Under 66
58.4%
@ 1.86+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
Central Connecticut State total 70Actual: Central Connecticut State over 70
Over 70
26.6%
Under 70
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Dartmouth -11.5Actual: Central Connecticut State +11.5
DART -11.5
76.7%
@ 2.27+36.1pp
CENT +11.5
23.3%
@ 1.55-36.1pp
Best 5 market prices
DART
Betano
2.27
CENT
Betano
1.55
Spread Dartmouth -8.5 · main lineActual: Central Connecticut State +8.5
DART -8.5
83.9%
@ 1.91+33.5pp
CENT +8.5
16.1%
@ 1.94-33.5pp
Best 5 market prices
DART
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.83
CENT
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Spread Dartmouth -5.5Actual: Central Connecticut State +5.5
DART -5.5
89.5%
@ 1.87+32.8pp
CENT +5.5
10.5%
@ 2.42-32.8pp
Best 5 market prices
DART
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.73
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.55
CENT
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.83
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DartmouthCentral Connecticut State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Dartmouth) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Dartmouth win
DART win
no forecast
@ 1.45
CENT win
no forecast
@ 2.75
2nd half Spread Dartmouth -3.5 · main lineActual: Central Connecticut State +3.5
DART -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
CENT +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
DART
no forecast
@ 1.50
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
CENT
no forecast
@ 2.80
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Dartmouth -10
81.2%
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
-
-
-
-
+37.6pp
Lost
Dartmouth -10.5
79.3%
2.20
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
+37.4pp
Lost
Dartmouth -12.5
73.9%
2.47
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
-
+36.6pp
Lost
Dartmouth -13.5
71.0%
2.67
Betano
2.67
-
-
-
-
+36.6pp
Lost
Dartmouth -11.5
76.7%
2.27
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
-
+36.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth -9.5
81.7%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
1.95
-
-
-
+36.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth -9
83.5%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
-
+35.6pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 74
84.8%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+35.3pp
Lost
Dartmouth -4
92.3%
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
-
-
+35.2pp
Lost
Dartmouth -6
89.3%
1.83
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
-
-
+34.8pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 78.5
70.5%
2.50
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 77.5
73.9%
2.27
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
-
+34.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 76.5
77.0%
2.10
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
-
+33.8pp
Lost
Dartmouth -3.5
92.4%
1.56
Marathon Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.38
-
-
+33.6pp
Lost
Dartmouth -8.5
83.9%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
1xBet
1.83
+33.5pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 74.5
82.7%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
+33.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 73.5
85.2%
1.82
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
+32.9pp
Lost
Dartmouth -5.5
89.5%
1.73
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.55
+32.8pp
Lost
Dartmouth -8
85.7%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.79
-
-
-
+32.8pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 75
82.2%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+32.8pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 75.5
80.0%
1.91
Betano
1.91
-
-
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Dartmouth -5
90.9%
1.74
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.63
-
-
+32.2pp
Lost
Dartmouth -7.5
85.9%
1.77
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.72
+30.9pp
Lost
Dartmouth -7
87.6%
1.78
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
+30.5pp
Lost
Dartmouth -4.5
91.0%
1.64
1xBet
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.45
-
+30.4pp
Lost
Dartmouth -6.5
87.8%
1.74
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.68
+28.8pp
Lost
Dartmouth (regulation)
94.5%
1.30
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.22
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth +1.5
95.9%
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Dartmouth -2.5
93.4%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
Dartmouth +2.5
96.6%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Lost
Dartmouth -1.5
94.7%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth win
95.3%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.26
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+20.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth +3.5
97.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Lost
Over 139
71.2%
1.69
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.60
-
+15.7pp
Won
Over 138.5
71.8%
1.65
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.55
+15.4pp
Won
Central Connecticut State under 73.5
82.8%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Over 137.5
73.9%
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.65
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Over 133.5
81.3%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
75.9%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Over 138
73.3%
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Over 135.5
77.8%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Over 137
75.4%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Over 134.5
79.6%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Dartmouth +8.5
98.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Over 136
77.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Central Connecticut State under 72.5
80.2%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Over 135
79.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Dartmouth +13.5
99.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 132.5
82.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Central Connecticut State under 69.5
71.0%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Central Connecticut State under 70.5
74.3%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Central Connecticut State under 71.5
77.4%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Over 127.5
89.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 122.5
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Central Connecticut State over 50.5
91.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 167.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Central Connecticut State over 52.5
87.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Central Connecticut State over 54.5
82.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Under 162.5
81.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Central Connecticut State over 56.5
77.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Central Connecticut State over 58.5
70.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Under 157.5
72.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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