PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Dayton faces Central Michigan on 17 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with Pythia ranking Dayton the clear favourite at 94% because of their 1-2 record, 84.7 points per game and 79.3 allowed, compared to Central Michigan's undefeated 3-0 record, 89.0 points per game and 68.7 allowed. Dayton has gone 1-2 overall, scoring 84.7 and allowing 79.3, and their home record is also 1-2 with the same averages; their last five games were 2-3, including a 89-58 win over NJIT, a 76-81 loss to Northern Illinois and a 89-99 loss to Siena. Central Michigan is 3-0 overall, 89.0 points per game and 68.7 allowed, and on the road they are 1-0, 83.0 points per game and 78.0 allowed; their last five games were 3-2, highlighted by a 93-50 win over Alma Scots, a 91-78 win over Youngstown State and an 83-78 away win over Louisiana Monroe. Pythia gives Dayton a 94% chance of winning and Central Michigan a 6% chance, projecting a 83-66 score for a total of 149.2 points, with a 2% probability of overtime. The projected outcome reflects Dayton's higher scoring average and defensive edge, while Central Michigan's perfect record remains a bright spot.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 84.7 | 79.3 | 164.0 | +5.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (3) | 84.7 | 79.3 | 164.0 | +5.3 | 33% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 72.6 | 69.6 | 142.2 | +3.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.2 | 75.4 | 152.6 | +1.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 69.7 | 79.4 | 149.1 | -9.7 | 29% |
| vs Similar (18) | 75.3 | 70.7 | 146.1 | +4.6 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 77.0 | 61.0 | 138.0 | +16.0 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 89.0 | 68.7 | 157.7 | +20.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 92.0 | 64.0 | 156.0 | +28.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 83.0 | 78.0 | 161.0 | +5.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.1 | 70.3 | 148.4 | +7.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.0 | 73.6 | 153.6 | +6.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 70.0 | 84.0 | 154.0 | -14.0 | 23% |
| vs Similar (9) | 72.6 | 75.7 | 148.2 | -3.1 | 22% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 81.4 | 71.8 | 153.2 | +9.6 | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.8 | 33.9 | 69.7 | +1.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.8 | 31.5 | 69.3 | +6.3 | 78% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 32.8 | 37.4 | 70.2 | -4.7 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.3 | 34.0 | 70.3 | +2.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.8 | 37.0 | 72.8 | -1.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 32.4 | 39.1 | 71.6 | -6.7 | 14% | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 36.8 | 32.6 | 69.4 | +4.2 | 78% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 36.8 | 31.0 | 67.8 | +5.8 | 60% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.2 | 35.9 | 72.1 | +0.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 38.4 | 32.9 | 71.3 | +5.6 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.2 | 38.6 | 72.8 | -4.4 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.8 | 32.9 | 70.7 | +4.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 36.2 | 73.0 | +0.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 34.1 | 39.6 | 73.7 | -5.5 | 38% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 32.1 | 36.0 | 68.1 | -3.9 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 43.2 | 31.4 | 74.6 | +11.8 | 80% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Siena | 89-99 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Northern Illinois | 76-81 OT |
| 03/11/26 | H | NJIT | 89-58 |
| 15/03/26 | A | VCU Rams | 62-70 |
| 14/03/26 | A | St. Louis Billikens | 70-69 |
| 13/03/26 | H | St. Bonaventure | 68-63 |
| 07/03/26 | H | VCU Rams | 62-68 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Richmond Spiders | 65-60 |
| 28/02/26 | A | George Washington | 68-66 |
| 25/02/26 | H | St. Louis Billikens | 77-62 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Youngstown State | 91-78 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Alma Scots | 93-50 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Louisiana Monroe | 83-78 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Ball State | 69-85 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Akron | 64-77 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Buffalo | 75-70 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Kent State | 81-83 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Western Michigan | 83-70 |
| 17/02/26 | A | Eastern Michigan | 54-66 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Northern Illinois | 88-46 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | WLL | 33% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 33% | 33% | - |
| Points / game | 84.7 | 84.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 79.3 | 79.3 | - |
| Point differential | +5.3 | +5.3 | - |
| Avg total | 164.0 | 164.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 33% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 33% | 33% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 89.0 | 92.0 | 83.0 |
| Allowed / game | 68.7 | 64.0 | 78.0 |
| Point differential | +20.3 | +28.0 | +5.0 |
| Avg total | 157.7 | 156.0 | 161.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Richmond Spiders | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 58.7 | +36.7 |
| 2 |  St. Louis Billikens | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.3 | 71.3 | +31.0 |
| 3 |  George Washington | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.3 | 50.0 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Rhode Island | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 63.3 | +22.7 |
| 5 |  George Mason | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 75.3 | 57.7 | +17.7 |
| 6 |  Davidson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 75.3 | 60.7 | +14.7 |
| 7 |  Saint Josephs Hawks | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 77.3 | 70.0 | +7.3 |
| 8 |  Duquesne | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 66.7 | +6.0 |
| 9 |  St. Bonaventure | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.3 | 64.0 | +18.3 |
| 10 |  VCU Rams | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.7 | 70.0 | +15.7 |
| 11 |  Loyola Chicago | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.0 | 70.7 | +11.3 |
| 12 |  Fordham | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 76.7 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Dayton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 79.3 | +5.3 |
| 14 |  La Salle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 84.7 | -17.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 62.5 | +31.0 |
| 2 | Central Michigan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.7 | +20.3 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 76.0 | +9.5 |
| 4 |  Ohio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 73.5 | +9.5 |
| 5 |  Miami (Ohio) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 75.0 | +8.0 |
| 6 |  Western Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.3 | 61.3 | +17.0 |
| 7 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 8 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 75.5 | +5.8 |
| 10 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 11 |  Ball State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 66.7 | +3.3 |
| 12 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Toledo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.0 | 78.5 | -8.5 |
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