Dayton faces Northern Illinois on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating Dayton as the clear favourite at 99% versus 1% for Northern Illinois, a reflection of Dayton's 1-0 season record, 89.0 points per game and only 58.0 allowed, placing them 65th, compared with Northern Illinois' 0-2 record, 81.0 points per game and 91.5 allowed, 298th. Dayton's lone game was a 89-58 home win over NJIT, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, while Northern Illinois has gone 0-5 in their last five, losing 75-94 to Tulsa, 87-89 to Grambling St. and 55-94 to Akron. The teams have met once, with Dayton winning 79-41 on 4 December 2021. Pythia projects a 89-61 score, 149.7 total points, a home line of -22.5 with a 70% chance of covering, and a 147.5 total with a 55% over probability, and no overtime is expected. The game will likely see Dayton dominate early, as their offensive output far exceeds Northern Illinois' defensive struggles.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dayton winLost
98.9%fair 1.01
Best odds1.03
Implied93.6%
Edge+5.3pp
Northern Illinois winWon
1.1%fair 93.97
Best odds20.00
Implied6.4%
Edge-5.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 14:23 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Dayton) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Dayton win
DAYT win
no forecast
@ 1.15
NORT win
no forecast
@ 5.50
2nd half Spread Dayton -8.5 · main lineActual: Dayton -8.5
DAYT -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
NORT +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Dayton 2nd half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Dayton under 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Northern Illinois 2nd half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Northern Illinois under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Spread Dayton -9.5Actual: Dayton -9.5
DAYT -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
NORT +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
DAYT
no forecast
@ 1.18
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
NORT
no forecast
@ 5.40
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Dayton -21
75.5%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
2.00
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Dayton -21.5
73.4%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.12
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
+32.4pp
Lost
Dayton -20.5
76.2%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.01
Marathon Bet
1.95
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
+31.2pp
Lost
Dayton -20
78.2%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
1.96
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
+31.0pp
Lost
Dayton -22
72.6%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Lost
Dayton -19.5
78.7%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
+29.1pp
Lost
Dayton -19
80.7%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
-
+28.6pp
Lost
Dayton -17
85.1%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Lost
Dayton -18.5
81.1%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.74
SBO
1.74
Betano
1.60
+26.7pp
Lost
Dayton -18
83.0%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Dayton -16
86.9%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Dayton -17.5
83.3%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.52
-
-
+25.2pp
Lost
Dayton -16.5
85.4%
1.51
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Lost
Dayton -15
88.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Dayton over 83
73.9%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Dayton -22.5
70.4%
2.00
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.82
-
+23.1pp
Lost
Dayton -15.5
87.2%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Dayton -14
90.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Dayton over 82.5
74.8%
1.75
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.67
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Dayton over 83.5
71.5%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+21.5pp
Lost
Dayton -14.5
88.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
Dayton -13
91.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Dayton over 84
70.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Dayton -13.5
90.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Lost
Dayton -12.5
91.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Lost
Dayton over 81.5
77.9%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
Dayton -12
92.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Dayton over 80.5
80.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Dayton -11.5
92.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Lost
Dayton over 78.5
85.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
Dayton over 79.5
83.4%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Lost
Dayton over 76.5
89.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
Dayton over 77.5
87.9%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Lost
Dayton -9.5
94.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
Dayton over 75.5
91.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Dayton over 74.5
93.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Dayton over 73.5
94.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 69.5
81.7%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Lost
Dayton (regulation)
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Lost
Northern Illinois under 66.5
72.7%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Northern Illinois under 67.5
75.9%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Northern Illinois under 68.5
78.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Dayton -4.5
97.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Northern Illinois under 70.5
84.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Northern Illinois under 72.5
88.5%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Dayton win
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
+5.3pp
Lost
Northern Illinois under 74.5
91.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Over 139.5
73.7%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 140.5
71.6%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 140
73.1%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Over 141
71.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 76.5
94.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
Over 139
75.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 138.5
75.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 121.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
79.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Over 126.5
92.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Over 131.5
87.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Under 171.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Dayton under 102.5
91.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 48.5
88.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 47.5
90.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Dayton under 100.5
87.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
85.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 49.5
86.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 50.5
84.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 51.5
81.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Dayton under 98.5
82.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 52.5
79.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 53.5
76.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 54.5
72.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Dayton under 96.5
77.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Dayton under 94.5
70.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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