Defensor vs Penarol Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 18 Nov 2023

Tip-off: 00:00

Scheduled

Position#4

Record3-2

FormWWLWL

Points / game79.2

Allowed / game73.4

Defensor

Form · last 5 games

4.2/10

Below normal

4.9/10

Around normal

Penarol

Position-

Record-

FormLLLLL

Points / game-

Allowed / game-

Liga Uruguaya

Other2023-24

Meetings · Defensor v Penarol

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Defensor win

-no forecast

Best oddsnot yet

Implied-

Edge-

Penarol win

-no forecast

Best oddsnot yet

Implied-

Edge-

Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Defensor

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormDefensor

Date

Competition

Malvin

73-92

-19

no box

A15/03

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

66-78

-12

no box

H29/03

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

73-79

-6

no box

A31/03

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

92-73

+19

no box

H05/04

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

71-81

-10

no box

A12/04

Liga Uruguaya

Goes

#12

87-73

+14

78avg 69

A27/10

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

85-70

+15

73avg 69

H02/11

Liga Uruguaya

Hebraica y Macabi

64-70

-6

45avg 69

A05/11

Liga Uruguaya

Urupan

78-67

+11

73avg 69

H09/11

Liga Uruguaya

Bigua

82-87

-5

75avg 69

A14/11

Liga Uruguaya

17-22

12-35

22-11

22-24

14-21

19-14

16-17

17-26

17-21

10-25

24-17

22-16

19-19

27-19

23-20

23-15

17-13

18-30

18-15

18-23

19-20

28-21

26-18

14-14

23-15

23-23

18-14

21-18

17-18

10-22

17-11

20-19

17-22

26-13

16-18

19-14

26-22

21-18

13-23

22-24

154.1Avg total

77.1Scored

77.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (5)	79.2	73.4	152.6	+5.8	60%
Season at home (2)	81.5	68.5	150.0	+13.0	100%
Season away (3)	77.7	76.7	154.3	+1.0	33%
Last 10 (10)	77.1	77.0	154.1	+0.1	40%
Last 5 (5)	79.2	73.4	152.6	+5.8	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	85.3	90.3	175.7	-5.0	33%
vs Similar (21)	77.5	80.1	157.7	-2.6	43%
vs Weaker (3)	82.3	68.7	151.0	+13.7	100%

Penarol

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPenarol

Date

Competition

Boca Juniors

78-94

-16

no box

A23/04

Liga A

Boca Juniors

84-98

-14

no box

A26/04

Liga A

Boca Juniors

110-114 OT

110

114

-4

no box

H29/04

Liga A

Obera TC

#12

71-105

105

-34

59avg 62

A09/10

Liga A

Regatas

#10

87-80

79avg 62

A12/10

Liga A

Boca Juniors

72-92

-20

56avg 62

H15/10

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

89-106

106

-17

76avg 62

H19/10

Liga A

Argentino

#17

66-81

-15

55avg 62

A12/11

Liga A

Ferro

#13

73-80

-7

61avg 62

A14/11

Liga A

San Lorenzo

65-88

-23

48avg 62

A15/11

Liga A

21-21

14-15

15-26

28-32

19-22

22-20

24-31

19-25

28-16

19-19

14-26

20-20

15-22

13-31

19-20

24-32

17-29

26-17

26-18

18-16

22-19

14-22

16-34

20-17

18-26

21-29

17-25

33-26

15-17

21-28

14-18

16-18

13-23

22-14

25-20

10-25

20-20

17-21

18-22

173.3Avg total

79.5Scored

93.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season	no games
Season at home	no games
Season away	no games
Last 10 (10)	79.5	93.8	173.3	-14.3	10%
Last 5 (5)	73.0	89.4	162.4	-16.4	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	77.0	86.1	163.1	-9.1	20%
vs Similar (18)	80.7	87.2	167.8	-6.5	33%
vs Weaker (2)	86.5	92.5	179.0	-6.0	50%

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

DefensorPenarol

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.5	21.6	40.2	-3.1	27%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	18.4	21.2	39.6	-2.9	29%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.7	22.0	40.7	-3.3	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.6	19.3	37.9	-0.7	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.4	19.4	39.8	+1.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	19.5	24.3	43.8	-4.8	17%	-
vs Similar (21)	18.4	21.2	39.6	-2.8	29%	-
vs Weaker (3)	17.7	19.3	37.0	-1.7	33%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.4	20.0	39.4	-0.7	50%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.3	19.4	39.7	+0.9	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.6	20.6	39.1	-2.0	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.8	22.0	39.8	-4.2	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.6	22.0	37.6	-6.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	19.9	19.3	39.2	+0.6	70%	-
vs Similar (18)	18.4	20.4	38.9	-2.0	33%	-
vs Weaker (2)	25.0	20.0	45.0	+5.0	100%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.6	20.2	40.8	+0.4	57%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.5	18.4	39.9	+3.1	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.8	21.8	41.5	-2.0	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.4	22.0	41.4	-2.6	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	19.4	41.0	+2.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	23.7	23.7	47.3	+0.0	50%	-
vs Similar (21)	19.1	19.7	38.8	-0.6	52%	-
vs Weaker (3)	24.7	16.7	41.3	+8.0	100%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.5	20.5	39.0	-2.0	33%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	18.7	18.8	37.5	-0.1	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.2	22.0	40.2	-3.8	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.3	22.4	40.7	-4.1	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.8	24.4	42.2	-6.6	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	18.1	20.7	38.8	-2.6	40%	-
vs Similar (18)	18.8	20.4	39.3	-1.6	33%	-
vs Weaker (2)	17.0	20.0	37.0	-3.0	0%	-

DefensorLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Malvin

29-57

-28

A15/03

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

33-35

-2

H29/03

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

27-46

-19

A31/03

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

46-38

H05/04

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

35-43

-8

A12/04

Liga Uruguaya

Goes

#12

47-41

A27/10

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

46-38

H02/11

Liga Uruguaya

Hebraica y Macabi

27-40

-13

A05/11

Liga Uruguaya

Urupan

43-35

H09/11

Liga Uruguaya

Bigua

47-40

A14/11

Liga Uruguaya

79.3Avg total

38.0Scored

41.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.1	41.8	80.9	-2.7	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	39.9	39.6	79.5	+0.2	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	38.4	43.8	82.2	-5.3	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.0	41.3	79.3	-3.3	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	42.0	38.8	80.8	+3.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	43.2	48.0	91.2	-4.8	50%	-
vs Similar (21)	37.5	40.9	78.4	-3.4	33%	-
vs Weaker (3)	42.3	36.0	78.3	+6.3	100%	-

PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Boca Juniors

35-36

-1

A23/04

Liga A

Boca Juniors

41-42

-1

A26/04

Liga A

Boca Juniors

47-35

+12

H29/04

Liga A

Obera TC

#12

28-53

-25

A09/10

Liga A

Regatas

#10

43-46

-3

A12/10

Liga A

Boca Juniors

36-41

-5

H15/10

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

39-55

-16

H19/10

Liga A

Argentino

#17

36-45

-9

A12/11

Liga A

Ferro

#13

26-46

-20

A14/11

Liga A

San Lorenzo

30-45

-15

A15/11

Liga A

80.5Avg total

36.1Scored

44.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	37.8	40.5	78.4	-2.7	33%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	39.0	38.2	77.2	+0.8	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	36.8	42.6	79.4	-5.8	12%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.1	44.4	80.5	-8.3	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	33.4	46.4	79.8	-13.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	38.0	40.0	78.0	-2.0	30%	-
vs Similar (18)	37.3	40.9	78.2	-3.6	33%	-
vs Weaker (2)	42.0	40.0	82.0	+2.0	50%	-

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.5	18.3	37.9	+1.2	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.6	17.3	36.9	+2.4	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.4	19.2	38.7	+0.2	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.3	16.4	35.7	+2.9	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.0	16.8	34.8	+1.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	21.0	22.8	43.8	-1.8	50%	-
vs Similar (21)	18.7	17.5	36.2	+1.1	52%	-
vs Weaker (3)	22.7	15.0	37.7	+7.7	67%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.5	23.4	42.9	-3.9	27%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.1	24.2	43.3	-5.1	21%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.8	22.7	42.5	-2.9	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.4	23.3	41.7	-4.9	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.2	22.4	39.6	-5.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	18.9	24.8	43.7	-5.9	20%	-
vs Similar (18)	19.3	22.5	41.8	-3.2	28%	-
vs Weaker (2)	24.0	24.5	48.5	-0.5	50%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.0	20.2	40.2	-0.2	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.3	20.6	40.9	-0.4	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.8	19.8	39.5	+0.0	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.8	19.3	39.1	+0.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.2	17.8	37.0	+1.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	21.2	19.5	40.7	+1.7	50%	-
vs Similar (21)	20.0	20.7	40.8	-0.7	43%	-
vs Weaker (3)	17.3	17.7	35.0	-0.3	33%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.6	22.1	43.7	-0.6	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.5	20.4	41.9	+1.1	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	21.6	23.7	45.3	-2.1	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.1	22.8	44.9	-0.7	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.4	20.6	43.0	+1.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	20.1	21.3	41.4	-1.2	40%	-
vs Similar (18)	22.5	21.9	44.4	+0.6	44%	-
vs Weaker (2)	20.5	28.0	48.5	-7.5	50%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.5	38.5	78.0	+1.0	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	39.9	37.9	77.9	+2.0	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	39.2	39.0	78.2	+0.2	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	39.1	35.7	74.8	+3.4	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	37.2	34.6	71.8	+2.6	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	42.2	42.3	84.5	-0.2	67%	-
vs Similar (21)	38.7	38.2	77.0	+0.5	52%	-
vs Weaker (3)	40.0	32.7	72.7	+7.3	100%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	41.0	45.5	86.6	-4.5	30%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	40.6	44.6	85.1	-4.0	29%	-
Last 30 away (16)	41.4	46.4	87.8	-4.9	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	40.5	46.1	86.6	-5.6	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.6	43.0	82.6	-3.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	39.0	46.1	85.1	-7.1	30%	-
vs Similar (18)	41.8	44.4	86.2	-2.7	28%	-
vs Weaker (2)	44.5	52.5	97.0	-8.0	50%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Defensortheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Defensor: 79.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀51%

🏀🏀🏀33%

🏀15%

🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 51% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 33% of the points

🏀 Free throws12.2 pts a game · 15% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game

49%

35%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.2	20.2	51.5%	51.0%	40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.6	8.8	30.8%	33.3%	26.4
🏀 Free throws	19.4	12.2	62.9%	71.7%	12.2

They take 67.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

No box scores for this team yet.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.0	18.0	45.0%	51.0%	36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	20.4	6.4	31.4%	33.3%	19.2
🏀 Free throws	23.0	17.4	75.7%	71.7%	17.4

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.0	18.0	45.0%	51.0%	36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	20.4	6.4	31.4%	33.3%	19.2
🏀 Free throws	23.0	17.4	75.7%	71.7%	17.4

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Defensor wins

Penarol wins

Date	Game	Score
24/01/23	Penarol v Defensor	68-70
21/11/22	Defensor v Penarol	70-56
12/03/22	Penarol v Defensor	74-66
14/12/21	Defensor v Penarol	78-80
04/05/21	Penarol v Defensor	1-20

Defensorlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
14/11/23	A	Bigua	82-87
09/11/23	H	Urupan	78-67
05/11/23	A	Hebraica y Macabi	64-70
02/11/23	H	Aguada	85-70
27/10/23	A	Goes	87-73
12/04/23	A	Nacional	71-81
05/04/23	H	Nacional	92-73
31/03/23	A	Nacional	73-79
29/03/23	H	Nacional	66-78
15/03/23	A	Malvin	73-92

Penarollast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
15/11/23	A	San Lorenzo	65-88
14/11/23	A	Ferro	73-80
12/11/23	A	Argentino	66-81
19/10/23	H	Obras Sanitarias	89-106
15/10/23	H	Boca Juniors	72-92
12/10/23	A	Regatas	87-80
09/10/23	A	Obera TC	71-105
29/04/23	H	Boca Juniors	110-114 OT
26/04/23	A	Boca Juniors	84-98
23/04/23	A	Boca Juniors	78-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Defensor

Liga Uruguaya 2023-24

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLWL	60%
Home	WW	100%
Away	WLL	33%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	5	2	3
Win %	60%	100%	33%
Points / game	79.2	81.5	77.7
Allowed / game	73.4	68.5	76.7
Point differential	+5.8	+13.0	+1.0
Avg total	152.6	150.0	154.3
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	60%	100%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	-	0% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Penarol

Liga Uruguaya 2023-24

Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	-	-
Home	-	-
Away	-	-

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	-	-	-
Win %	-	-	-
Points / game	-	-	-
Allowed / game	-	-	-
Point differential	-	-	-
Avg total	-	-	-
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	-	-	-
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	-	-	-

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Nacional	5	5	0	100%	91.6	76.8	+14.8
2	Aguada	5	4	1	80%	82.2	77.2	+5.0
3	Defensor	5	3	2	60%	79.2	73.4	+5.8
4	Malvin	5	3	2	60%	83.8	82.4	+1.4
5	Penarol	4	2	2	50%	85.0	80.8	+4.2
6	Urupan	4	2	2	50%	78.0	82.2	-4.2
7	Trouville	5	2	3	40%	83.4	81.8	+1.6
8	Hebraica y Macabi	5	2	3	40%	73.0	74.4	-1.4
9	Bigua	5	2	3	40%	79.8	84.8	-5.0
10	Cordon	5	2	3	40%	72.8	80.0	-7.2
11	Goes	5	1	4	20%	81.2	87.8	-6.6
12	Larre Borges	5	1	4	20%	81.0	89.4	-8.4

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

← all games of the day

Defensor vs Penarol Prediction & Stats

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

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