Detroit faces Toledo on 14 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the model predicts to be a low-scoring affair, with both teams' defenses and slow pace suggesting a game; the projected score is 75-72 and the total 147.0 points. Detroit has gone 0-2 this season, averaging 43.5 points and allowing 96.5, while Toledo is 1-3, averaging 70.0 and conceding 78.5, with the latter's road record at 1-2 and recent results including a 81-76 win over Marshall and a 68-76 loss to Wright State. In their five meetings, Toledo has won all, most recently 90-83 on 15 November 2025. The model favours Detroit with a 64% chance of victory and a 36% chance for Toledo, and Detroit is also 87% likely to cover the 9.5-point spread; the over on the 153.0-point line has a 35% probability, and the game has a 5% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Detroit winLost
63.7%fair 1.57
Best odds5.50
Implied17.5%
Edge+46.2pp
Toledo winWon
36.3%fair 2.76
Best odds1.19
Implied82.5%
Edge-46.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 22:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Detroit) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Over 149
Over 149
44.3%
@ 1.45-19.9pp
Under 149
55.7%
@ 2.60+19.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Over 154
Over 154
32.6%
@ 1.93-17.6pp
Under 154
67.4%
@ 1.91+17.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
22.5%
@ 2.55-14.0pp
Under 159
77.5%
@ 1.47+14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Detroit total 67.5Actual: Detroit over 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Detroit total 72 · main linePush
Over 72
63.8%
@ 1.87+13.8pp
Under 72
36.2%
@ 1.85-13.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Detroit total 76Actual: Detroit under 76
Over 76
47.8%
Under 76
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 77Actual: Toledo over 77
Over 77
28.9%
Under 77
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 81 · main lineActual: Toledo over 81
Over 81
17.2%
@ 1.85-32.8pp
Under 81
82.8%
@ 1.85+32.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Toledo total 84.5Actual: Toledo over 84.5
Over 84.5
no forecast
@ 2.38
Under 84.5
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Detroit +7.5Actual: Toledo -7.5
DETR +7.5
83.5%
@ 2.41+43.9pp
TOLE -7.5
16.5%
@ 1.58-43.9pp
Best 5 market prices
DETR
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
TOLE
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Spread Detroit +10.5 · main lineActual: Toledo -10.5
DETR +10.5
89.1%
@ 1.89+38.2pp
TOLE -10.5
10.9%
@ 1.96-38.2pp
Best 5 market prices
DETR
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
TOLE
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
Spread Detroit +13.5Actual: Detroit +13.5
DETR +13.5
93.0%
@ 1.61+33.7pp
TOLE -13.5
7.0%
@ 2.50-33.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DETR
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
TOLE
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.32
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DetroitToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Detroit +3
72.1%
3.65
Bet365
3.65
-
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Lost
Detroit +4
75.2%
3.20
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
-
+46.1pp
Lost
Detroit +5
78.1%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+45.6pp
Lost
Detroit +6
80.7%
2.62
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
-
+45.3pp
Lost
Detroit +4.5
75.9%
2.98
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
-
-
-
+44.8pp
Lost
Detroit +3.5
72.9%
3.27
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.25
-
-
-
+44.6pp
Lost
Detroit +5.5
78.7%
2.71
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
+44.6pp
Lost
Detroit +7
83.2%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+44.4pp
Lost
Detroit +7.5
83.5%
2.31
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
-
-
+43.9pp
Lost
Detroit +6.5
81.2%
2.49
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+43.8pp
Lost
Detroit +8
85.3%
2.23
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+43.8pp
Lost
Detroit +2.5
70.2%
3.53
Bet365
3.70
Betano
3.35
-
-
-
+43.6pp
Lost
Detroit +8.5
85.6%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
-
-
+43.3pp
Lost
Detroit +9
87.2%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathon Bet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.98
-
+43.2pp
Lost
Detroit +9.5
87.5%
2.01
Bet365
2.12
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.97
+41.4pp
Lost
Detroit +10
88.9%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
-
+40.6pp
Lost
Toledo under 79.5
78.1%
2.38
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
Toledo under 77.5
72.1%
2.75
Betano
2.75
-
-
-
-
+39.2pp
Lost
Toledo under 78.5
75.2%
2.55
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
-
-
+38.7pp
Lost
Detroit +10.5
89.1%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
+38.2pp
Lost
Detroit +11
90.4%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+36.9pp
Lost
Detroit +13
92.9%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+35.5pp
Push
Toledo under 80.5
80.8%
2.07
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.07
-
-
-
+35.3pp
Lost
Detroit +11.5
90.6%
1.74
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.71
+34.9pp
Lost
Detroit +12
91.8%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+34.1pp
Lost
Detroit +13.5
93.0%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+33.7pp
Won
Toledo under 81
82.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+32.8pp
Lost
Detroit +12.5
91.9%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.57
-
+32.4pp
Lost
Detroit +14.5
94.0%
1.43
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Won
Detroit +14
93.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+29.4pp
Won
Detroit +15.5
94.8%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Won
Detroit +15
94.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Won
Detroit +16.5
95.6%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Detroit +18.5
96.8%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Detroit +16
95.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Detroit +18
96.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Won
Detroit +17.5
96.2%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Detroit +17
96.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Detroit +19
97.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Detroit +19.5
97.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Detroit over 69.5
72.1%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Detroit +21.5
98.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Under 155.5
70.2%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.71
Betano
1.70
-
+16.3pp
Lost
Under 156
71.6%
1.68
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.68
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Lost
Under 157
73.7%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Push
Under 156.5
72.2%
1.63
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
Under 158
75.6%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Under 157.5
74.2%
1.56
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Under 158.5
76.1%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Under 159
77.5%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Under 159.5
77.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 160
79.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Under 161
80.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Under 160.5
79.6%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Under 161.5
81.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Detroit +24.5
98.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Under 163.5
84.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 168.5
90.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
94.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Under 178.5
96.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.9%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Detroit under 91.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Detroit under 90.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Detroit under 88.5
90.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Detroit under 87.5
88.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Detroit under 86.5
86.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Over 128.5
86.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Detroit under 85.5
83.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Detroit under 84.5
81.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Detroit under 82.5
75.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Detroit under 83.5
78.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
79.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Detroit under 81.5
72.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Toledo +13.5
79.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
Toledo over 62.5
80.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
Toledo over 63.5
78.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.8pp
Won
Toledo over 64.5
75.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-16.5pp
Won
Toledo over 65.5
71.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-19.4pp
Won
Toledo +10.5
71.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-19.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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