Duke hosts Coastal Carolina on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Duke as the clear favourite, rating them 98% to win because of their 1-0 record, 84.0 points per game and 50.0 allowed per game, the best figures in the competition so far. Duke's lone game was a 84-50 victory over Army at home, and the team has won 4 of its last 5 games, with a recent win over St. John's (N.Y.) 80-75 and a narrow 72-73 loss to Uconn. Coastal Carolina, by contrast, is 0-1 with 70.0 points per game and 71.0 allowed per game, having lost to Eastern Michigan 70-71 and Georgia Southern 72-96, and only a single away win, 69-68 over James Madison. In their head-to-head history the two teams have not met this season, so no prior matchup informs the outlook. Pythia projects a 86-60 score, 146.4 total points, and gives Coastal Carolina a 2% chance of victory. The home team's line is 148.5, with a 45% probability that the over will be hit, and the game is not expected to go into overtime. The matchup ends with Duke's dominant defensive numbers suggesting a decisive win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Duke winWon
98.2%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Coastal Carolina winLost
1.8%fair 57.09
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
62.0%
@ 1.42-5.1pp
Under 141.5
38.0%
@ 3.05+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.62
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
49.8%
@ 1.83-2.9pp
Under 146.5
50.2%
@ 2.35+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Under
Bet365
2.35
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathon Be
1.96
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
37.5%
@ 2.30-5.2pp
Under 151.5
62.5%
@ 1.71+5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.53
📊 3. Team Totals
Duke total 88.5Actual: Duke over 88.5
Over 88.5
40.1%
@ 1.33-28.4pp
Under 88.5
59.9%
@ 2.90+28.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.90
Duke total 92.5 · main lineActual: Duke over 92.5
Over 92.5
25.6%
@ 1.85-27.6pp
Under 92.5
74.4%
@ 2.50+27.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Duke total 96.5Actual: Duke over 96.5
Over 96.5
14.5%
@ 2.20-26.5pp
Under 96.5
85.5%
@ 1.53+26.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.53
Coastal Carolina total 50.5Actual: Coastal Carolina over 50.5
Over 50.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under 50.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.37
Coastal Carolina total 54.5 · main lineActual: Coastal Carolina under 54.5
Over 54.5
72.2%
@ 1.91+21.9pp
Under 54.5
27.8%
@ 1.88-21.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Coastal Carolina total 58.5Actual: Coastal Carolina under 58.5
Over 58.5
57.4%
@ 3.30+27.7pp
Under 58.5
42.6%
@ 1.44-27.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.05
1xBet
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.29
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Duke -41.5Actual: Duke -41.5
DUKE -41.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
COAS +41.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.95
BetVictor
1.85
COAS
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.76
Bet365
1.74
Spread Duke -38.5 · main lineActual: Duke -38.5
DUKE -38.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
COAS +38.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.60
COAS
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.12
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Duke -35.5Actual: Duke -35.5
DUKE -35.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
COAS +35.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.37
COAS
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.55
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DukeCoastal Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Duke win
DUKE win
no forecast
@ 1.02
COAS win
no forecast
@ 15.00
2nd half Spread Duke -17.5 · main lineActual: Duke -17.5
DUKE -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
COAS +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Duke 2nd half total 48.5 · main lineActual: Duke over 48.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Coastal Carolina 2nd half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Coastal Carolina over 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Spread Duke -16.5Actual: Duke -16.5
DUKE -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
COAS +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Duke (regulation)
DUKE
no forecast
@ 1.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 35.00
COAS
no forecast
@ 14.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Duke under 95.5
83.1%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
-
+34.2pp
Lost
Duke under 95
82.6%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Duke under 91.5
71.0%
2.33
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+31.7pp
Lost
Duke under 94
79.8%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+30.1pp
Lost
Duke under 94.5
80.4%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+29.5pp
Lost
Duke under 93.5
77.5%
1.88
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.80
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina over 53
77.9%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Duke under 92.5
74.4%
2.07
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
+27.6pp
Lost
Duke under 98.5
89.6%
1.48
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Lost
Duke under 93
76.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Duke under 96.5
85.5%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Duke under 97.5
87.6%
1.48
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina over 53.5
75.5%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+25.1pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina over 54
74.7%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Duke under 99.5
91.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina over 54.5
72.2%
1.85
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Under 155
70.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Under 156
73.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Under 156.5
73.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Lost
Under 157
75.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
Under 158
77.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Under 157.5
75.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 158.5
77.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 155.5
71.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Under 172.5
94.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
90.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Over 122.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Under 162.5
84.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Lost
Over 127.5
88.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Duke over 73.5
89.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Over 137.5
71.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
80.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Duke over 74.5
87.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Duke over 75.5
85.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Duke over 76.5
83.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Duke over 77.5
80.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 69.5
82.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
Duke over 78.5
77.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 68.5
79.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Duke over 79.5
74.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 67.5
76.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-15.1pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 66.5
73.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-17.5pp
Won
Duke over 80.5
71.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.7pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.