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Duke vs Army Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 84-50
33-18 51-32
Position#76
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Duke 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ DUKE 98%■ ARMY 2%
Pythia win probability
Projected 86-61
Projected total 146.9
Army
USA
Position#360
Record-
FormWLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Duke v Army
02 Nov 2026
DUKE84
ARMY50
08 Nov 2024
DUKE100
ARMY58
12 Nov 2021
DUKE82
ARMY56
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Duke hosts Army on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Duke the clear favourite, assigning it a 98% chance to win because of its dominant season record and high scoring average. Duke's home season shows 5 wins and 1 loss, with 86 points scored per game and 61 points allowed per game, and it has won four of its last five home games, including a 80-75 victory over St. John's and an 81-58 win over TCU, while its only loss was a 72-73 defeat to UConn. Army's away season is 1 win and 4 losses, with 61 points scored per game and 86 points allowed per game, and it has lost four of its last five away games, including a 55-65 loss to Bucknell and a 77-83 loss to Lafayette, with a 73-75 defeat at home to Bucknell. The teams have met three times, with Duke winning all three meetings, most recently 114-59 on 11 November 2025. Pythia projects a 86-61 score for the game, a total of 146.9 points, a 39% chance of the over on the 151.5 line, and a 0% overtime probability. The model's confidence in Duke's victory is reflected in the 98% home win probability and the 2% away win probability.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
98.3%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied96.3%
Edge+2.0pp
Army winLost
1.7%fair 57.48
Best odds100.00
Implied3.7%
Edge-2.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia
#19
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
93-64
93
64
+29
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
80-79
80
79
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
71-65
71
65
+6
H19/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H21/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
W
80-75
80
75
+5
H27/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
72-73
72
73
-1
H29/03
NCAA
1H
2H
41-26
36-25
47-30
46-34
39-34
37-27
43-44
37-35
41-22
32-39
38-36
36-34
32-43
39-22
38-34
43-24
39-40
41-35
44-29
28-44
143.4Avg total
77.7Scored
65.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.765.7143.4+12.090%
Last 5 (5)75.668.2143.8+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker (28)79.765.0144.7+14.889%
ArmyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Holy Cross
#321
W
69-68
69
68
+1
H31/01
NCAA
Colgate
#168
L
55-69
55
69
-14
A05/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H07/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
68-85
68
85
-17
H11/02
NCAA
American University
#204
L
63-75
63
75
-12
A14/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
87-77
87
77
+10
A19/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
63-81
63
81
-18
H21/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
L
73-75
73
75
-2
H25/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
77-83
77
83
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
L
55-65
55
65
-10
A04/03
NCAA
1H
2H
33-33
36-35
28-38
27-31
28-26
32-37
29-40
39-45
27-36
36-39
41-31
46-46
27-43
36-38
26-36
47-39
26-37
51-46
25-26
30-39
141.1Avg total
67.0Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)67.074.1141.1-7.120%
Last 5 (5)71.076.2147.2-5.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)66.680.3146.9-13.719%
vs Similar (13)75.677.0152.6-1.446%
vs Weakerno games
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
46.0%
@ 1.52-15.4pp
Under 148.5
54.0%
@ 2.40+15.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
34.0%
@ 1.85-18.5pp
Under 153.5
66.0%
@ 2.30+18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Be
2.01
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
23.5%
@ 2.52-23.6pp
Under 158.5
76.5%
@ 1.76+23.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Be
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Be
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Duke total 93.5Actual: Duke under 93.5
Over 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.31
Under 93.5
no forecast
@ 3.20
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.92
Duke total 97.5 · main lineActual: Duke under 97.5
Over 97.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 97.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.07
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Duke total 101.5Actual: Duke under 101.5
Over 101.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
Under 101.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.53
Army total 50.5Actual: Army under 50.5
Over 50.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
Under 50.5
no forecast
@ 3.25
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.65
Army total 55 · main lineActual: Army under 55
Over 55
72.0%
@ 1.83+21.5pp
Under 55
28.0%
@ 1.87-21.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
Army total 59Actual: Army under 59
Over 59
56.6%
Under 59
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Duke -45.5Actual: Army +45.5
DUKE -45.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
ARMY +45.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.98
ARMY
Betano
1.72
Marathon Be
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Spread Duke -42.5 · main lineActual: Army +42.5
DUKE -42.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
ARMY +42.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.65
ARMY
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Duke -39.5Actual: Army +39.5
DUKE -39.5
no forecast
@ 1.54
ARMY +39.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.39
ARMY
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: -5.6-5.62nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: -1.5-1.5
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: -5.6-5.62nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: -1.5-1.5
DukeArmy
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia
#19
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H19/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H21/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H27/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H29/03
NCAA
74.0Avg total
40.2Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)39.832.472.2+7.377%37%
Last 30 at home (20)39.633.072.7+6.680%35%
Last 30 away (10)40.031.371.3+8.770%40%
Last 10 (10)40.233.874.0+6.470%40%
Last 5 (5)38.236.474.6+1.860%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%0%
vs Weaker (28)40.132.772.8+7.475%39%
ArmyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Holy Cross
#321
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H31/01
NCAA
Colgate
#168
L
28-38
28
38
-10
A05/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H11/02
NCAA
American University
#204
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A14/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
41-31
41
31
+10
A19/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H21/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
L
26-36
26
36
-10
H25/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A28/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
L
25-26
25
26
-1
A04/03
NCAA
63.6Avg total
29.0Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)32.536.368.9-3.833%27%
Last 30 at home (16)32.536.268.7-3.731%25%
Last 30 away (14)32.636.569.1-3.936%29%
Last 10 (10)29.034.663.6-5.620%0%
Last 5 (5)29.034.663.6-5.620%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)30.938.169.0-7.119%25%
vs Similar (13)33.534.968.4-1.546%31%
vs Weakerno games
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Duke -21.5 · main lineActual: Army +21.5
DUKE -21.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
ARMY +21.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 2.25
Duke 1st half total 48.5 · main lineActual: Duke under 48.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
Army 1st half total 26.5 · main lineActual: Army under 26.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half: DUKE + total 73.5
DUKE & over
no forecast
@ 1.83
DUKE & under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: Draw + total 73.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: ARMY + total 73.5
ARMY & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
ARMY & under
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half Over/Under 76Actual: Under 76
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Duke -22.5Actual: Army +22.5
DUKE -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
ARMY +22.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Spread Duke -20.5Actual: Army +20.5
DUKE -20.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
ARMY +20.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Duke -23.5Actual: Army +23.5
DUKE -23.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
ARMY +23.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
1st half Spread Duke -19.5Actual: Army +19.5
DUKE -19.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
ARMY +19.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Duke (regulation)
DUKE
no forecast
@ 1.01
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
ARMY
no forecast
@ 19.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
DUKE win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
ARMY win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Duke under 91.570.1%3.67
1xBet
4.50
Betano
2.85		---+44.0ppWon
Under 15672.0%1.97
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathon Bet
1.95		--+24.8ppWon
Under 15774.0%1.89
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.87		--+24.6ppWon
Under 155.570.4%1.91
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.99
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83		+24.3ppWon
Under 156.572.5%1.92
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.90		+24.3ppWon
Under 15876.1%1.77
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.79
Bet365
1.74		--+24.2ppWon
Under 157.574.6%1.84
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84		+24.0ppWon
Under 15978.0%1.69
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.66		--+23.7ppWon
Under 158.576.5%1.68
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.47		+23.6ppWon
Army over 5572.0%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+21.5ppLost
Under 16079.8%1.61
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.58		---+21.4ppWon
Under 16181.5%1.52
Bet365
1.52		----+20.3ppWon
Under 16283.2%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+19.0ppWon
Under 16384.7%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+18.5ppWon
Under 161.581.9%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+18.4ppWon
Under 162.583.4%1.41
Bet365
1.41		----+17.8ppWon
Under 163.584.9%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+17.4ppWon
Under 159.578.4%1.57
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.42		--+17.1ppWon
Under 16486.2%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+16.7ppWon
Under 160.580.2%1.46
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.37		---+16.5ppWon
Under 16587.5%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+16.1ppWon
Under 164.586.4%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+15.9ppWon
Under 165.587.7%1.28
Bet365
1.28		----+15.3ppWon
Under 167.590.0%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+12.2ppWon
Under 172.594.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+8.9ppWon
Under 169.592.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+7.0ppWon
Under 174.595.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+6.0ppWon
Duke win98.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.0ppWon
Over 129.586.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----6.7ppWon
Duke over 76.583.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----9.8ppWon
Over 132.581.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----10.7ppWon
Over 134.578.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----11.6ppLost
Duke over 78.578.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----13.0ppWon
Over 137.572.1%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----16.9ppLost
Duke over 79.575.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----18.3ppWon
Duke over 80.572.1%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----18.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Duke wins
0
Army wins
DateGameScore
12/11/25Army v Duke59-114
08/11/24Duke v Army100-58
13/11/21Duke v Army82-56
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/03/26HUconn72-73
27/03/26HSt. John's (N.Y.)80-75
21/03/26HTCU81-58
19/03/26HSiena71-65
15/03/26HVirginia74-70
14/03/26HClemson73-61
12/03/26HFlorida State80-79
07/03/26HNorth Carolina76-61
03/03/26ANC State93-64
28/02/26HVirginia77-51
Armylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/26ABucknell55-65
28/02/26ALafayette77-83
25/02/26HBucknell73-75
21/02/26HNavy63-81
19/02/26ALoyola Maryland87-77
14/02/26AAmerican University63-75
11/02/26HBoston University68-85
07/02/26HLafayette60-63
05/02/26AColgate55-69
31/01/26HHoly Cross69-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 153.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Army
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 153.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 West Florida Argonauts110100%127.042.0+85.0
2 Nicholls State110100%110.056.0+54.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)110100%96.047.0+49.0
4 Hofstra110100%97.051.0+46.0
5 Middle Tenn. St.110100%117.073.0+44.0
6 South Carolina St110100%94.055.0+39.0
7 South Dakota Coyotes110100%95.057.0+38.0
8 IU Indy110100%113.076.0+37.0
9 Mercer110100%90.053.0+37.0
10 Princeton110100%78.046.0+32.0
11 VMI110100%115.083.0+32.0
12 Murray State110100%94.064.0+30.0
13 George Mason110100%82.054.0+28.0
14 McNeese State110100%99.078.0+21.0
15 San Jose State110100%95.074.0+21.0
16 Michigan110100%84.068.0+16.0
17 High Point110100%72.057.0+15.0
18 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
19 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
20 Northern Kentucky110100%84.076.0+8.0
21 Queens Royals110100%103.098.0+5.0
22 Bowling Green110100%76.073.0+3.0
23 Grambling St.110100%89.087.0+2.0
24 Notre Dame110100%74.072.0+2.0
25 Cornell110100%86.085.0+1.0
26 Pepperdine1010%85.086.0-1.0
27 Northern Illinois1010%87.089.0-2.0
28 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
29 Georgia State1010%73.076.0-3.0
30 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
31 UTEP1010%76.084.0-8.0
32 Miami (FL)1010%67.077.0-10.0
33 Appalachian State1010%49.063.0-14.0
34 Liberty1010%57.072.0-15.0
35 Oakland1010%68.084.0-16.0
36 UAB1010%78.099.0-21.0
37 UTSA Roadrunners1010%74.095.0-21.0
38 UMBC Retrievers1010%54.082.0-28.0
39 Tennessee State1010%64.094.0-30.0
40 Carnegie Mellon1010%46.078.0-32.0
41 Virginia-Lynchburg1010%83.0115.0-32.0
42 Miami (OH) - Middletown1010%76.0113.0-37.0
43 Reinhardt1010%53.090.0-37.0
44 Mount Marty1010%57.095.0-38.0
45 Morris College1010%55.094.0-39.0
46 Fisk1010%73.0117.0-44.0
47 St. Joseph's (Brooklyn)1010%51.097.0-46.0
48 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
49 North American Stallions1010%56.0110.0-54.0
50 Southeastern Baptist College1010%42.0127.0-85.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke335184
Army183250
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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