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Duke vs TCU Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 21:15
Final 81-58
38-34 43-24
Position#8
Record33-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game63.2
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
TCU
USA
Position#77
Record23-11
FormWWWLW
Points / game77.9
Allowed / game71.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
TCU winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-56
100
56
+44
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
93-64
93
64
+29
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
80-79
80
79
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
71-65
71
65
+6
H19/03
NCAA
1H
2H
40-24
61-40
35-33
33-30
54-22
46-34
41-26
36-25
47-30
46-34
39-34
37-27
43-44
37-35
41-22
32-39
38-36
36-34
32-43
39-22
144.7Avg total
81.3Scored
63.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)82.063.2145.2+18.894%
Season at home (23)81.763.2144.9+18.696%
Season away (12)82.463.2145.7+19.292%
Last 10 (10)81.363.4144.7+17.9100%
Last 5 (5)74.867.2142.0+7.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)81.163.6144.8+17.593%
This opponent (TCU) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TCUUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma State
#140
W
95-92 OT
95
92
+3
A14/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
71-82
71
82
-11
A18/02
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
90-78
90
78
+12
H25/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
77-68
77
68
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
73-65
73
65
+8
A04/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H07/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
95-88
95
88
+7
H12/03
NCAA
Kansas
#58
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A13/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
66-64
66
64
+2
A19/03
NCAA
1H
2H
39-34
45-50
28-42
43-40
30-25
30-29
33-30
57-48
41-38
36-30
36-39
37-26
32-29
41-34
43-46
52-42
34-31
39-47
39-24
27-40
150.5Avg total
77.3Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)77.971.8149.8+6.168%
Season at home (21)78.067.6145.6+10.576%
Season away (13)77.878.7156.5-0.954%
Last 10 (10)77.373.2150.5+4.180%
Last 5 (5)76.071.6147.6+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)72.275.0147.2-2.850%
vs Similar (15)76.673.5150.1+3.173%
vs Weaker (11)81.269.7150.9+11.573%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.6+9.61st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +8.3+8.32nd half: +2.1+2.1
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.6+9.61st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +8.3+8.32nd half: +2.1+2.1
DukeTCU
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H19/03
NCAA
72.4Avg total
41.0Scored
31.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.431.471.8+9.080%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.631.371.8+9.384%-
Last 30 away (11)40.131.671.7+8.573%-
Last 10 (10)41.031.472.4+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)38.635.874.4+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)40.831.672.4+9.179%-
This opponent (TCU) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TCULast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma State
#140
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A14/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A18/02
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H25/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A04/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H12/03
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A13/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
39-24
39
24
+15
A19/03
NCAA
69.3Avg total
35.5Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.635.170.7+0.547%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.334.170.4+2.253%-
Last 30 away (13)34.836.571.2-1.738%-
Last 10 (10)35.533.869.3+1.770%-
Last 5 (5)36.833.870.6+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)31.240.071.2-8.80%-
vs Similar (15)35.334.569.7+0.853%-
vs Weaker (11)37.734.271.9+3.555%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Duke wins
0
TCU wins
No previous meetings.
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/26HSiena71-65
15/03/26HVirginia74-70
14/03/26HClemson73-61
12/03/26HFlorida State80-79
07/03/26HNorth Carolina76-61
03/03/26ANC State93-64
28/02/26HVirginia77-51
25/02/26ANotre Dame100-56
21/02/26HMichigan68-63
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
TCUlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/26AOhio State66-64
13/03/26AKansas73-78
12/03/26HOklahoma State95-88
07/03/26HCincinnati73-63
04/03/26ATexas Tech73-65
28/02/26AKansas State77-68
25/02/26HArizona State90-78
21/02/26HWest Virginia60-54
18/02/26AUCF Knights71-82
14/02/26AOklahoma State95-92 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW94%
HomeWWWWW96%
AwayWLWWW92%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games352312
Win %94%96%92%
Points / game82.081.782.4
Allowed / game63.263.263.2
Point differential+18.8+18.6+19.2
Avg total145.2144.9145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+66%65%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)80% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
TCU
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW68%
HomeWWWWW76%
AwayLWWLW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games342113
Win %68%76%54%
Points / game77.978.077.8
Allowed / game71.867.678.7
Point differential+6.1+10.5-0.9
Avg total149.8145.6156.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%43%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)50% (6)50% (6)
Overtime %9%5%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3533294%82.063.2+18.8
2 Virginia3630683%79.969.6+10.4
3 Miami (FL)3426876%81.971.0+10.9
4 North Carolina3324973%79.771.6+8.1
5 Louisville35241169%84.372.5+11.7
6 Clemson35241169%73.866.7+7.0
7 California32211166%77.973.2+4.6
8 Stanford32201262%76.072.7+3.3
9 Virginia Tech32191359%78.874.9+3.9
10 NC State34201459%83.276.3+6.9
11 SMU Mustangs34201459%84.177.9+6.1
12 Florida State33181555%80.477.9+2.4
13 Wake Forest33171652%78.877.1+1.8
14 Syracuse32151747%75.074.2+0.8
15 Notre Dame31131842%74.575.3-0.9
16 Pittsburgh33132039%70.571.8-1.3
17 Boston College31112035%67.470.7-3.3
18 Georgia Tech31112035%73.877.4-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arizona3533294%86.368.5+17.8
2 Houston3529683%77.262.4+14.8
3 Iowa State3527877%82.165.9+16.2
4 Kansas34241071%75.469.1+6.3
5 Texas Tech33231070%80.772.6+8.2
6 TCU34231168%77.971.8+6.1
7 Brigham Young35231266%83.575.4+8.1
8 UCF Knights33211264%80.778.4+2.3
9 Oklahoma State33191458%84.382.9+1.4
10 West Virginia32181456%69.264.8+4.4
11 Cincinnati33181555%73.167.6+5.5
12 Colorado32171553%80.079.4+0.5
13 Arizona State33171652%76.378.3-2.0
14 Baylor32161650%82.677.2+5.4
15 Kansas State32122038%79.681.8-2.3
16 Utah Utes32102231%74.379.1-4.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke384381
TCU342458
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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