PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Duke vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 76-61
39-34 37-27
Position#8
Record28-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game62.5
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
North Carolina
USA
Position#45
Record24-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game80.4
Allowed / game70.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Duke v North Carolina
07 Mar 2026
DUKE76
NORT61
14 Mar 2025
DUKE74
NORT71
01 Feb 2025
DUKE87
NORT70
09 Mar 2024
DUKE79
NORT84
04 Feb 2023
DUKE63
NORT57
02 Apr 2022
DUKE77
NORT81
05 Mar 2022
DUKE81
NORT94
06 Feb 2021
DUKE87
NORT91
07 Mar 2020
DUKE89
NORT76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#122
W
72-58
72
58
+14
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
67-49
67
49
+18
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
68-71
68
71
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-56
100
56
+44
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
93-64
93
64
+29
A03/03
NCAA
1H
2H
40-31
32-27
42-27
25-22
41-29
27-42
35-29
35-25
31-26
36-28
40-24
61-40
35-33
33-30
54-22
46-34
41-26
36-25
47-30
46-34
136.7Avg total
78.3Scored
58.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)83.262.5145.7+20.693%
Season at home (18)83.762.1145.7+21.694%
Season away (12)82.463.2145.7+19.292%
Last 10 (10)78.358.4136.7+19.990%
Last 5 (5)87.859.6147.4+28.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)84.362.4146.7+21.993%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#309
W
91-75
91
75
+16
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
87-77
87
77
+10
H03/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
71-68
71
68
+3
H07/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
66-75
66
75
-9
A11/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
79-65
79
65
+14
H14/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
58-82
58
82
-24
A18/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A21/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H04/03
NCAA
1H
2H
52-37
39-38
46-32
41-45
29-41
42-27
40-43
26-32
46-32
33-33
26-42
32-40
33-28
44-36
39-38
38-36
44-44
45-38
27-30
40-33
148.7Avg total
76.2Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)80.470.9151.3+9.680%
Season at home (19)83.666.6150.3+17.0100%
Season away (11)74.978.2153.1-3.345%
Last 10 (10)76.272.5148.7+3.780%
Last 5 (5)73.673.0146.6+0.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)71.068.0139.0+3.0100%
vs Similar (15)75.372.3147.6+3.167%
vs Weaker (14)86.669.6156.1+17.093%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.9+12.91st half: +1.5+1.52nd half2nd half: +7.0+7.02nd half: +2.2+2.2
-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.9+12.91st half: +1.5+1.52nd half2nd half: +7.0+7.02nd half: +2.2+2.2
DukeNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#122
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A03/03
NCAA
68.3Avg total
40.6Scored
27.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.230.471.6+10.883%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.529.771.2+11.889%-
Last 30 away (12)40.831.572.3+9.375%-
Last 10 (10)40.627.768.3+12.9100%-
Last 5 (5)43.427.070.4+16.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)41.630.572.2+11.182%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#309
W
52-37
52
37
+15
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H03/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H07/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A11/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H14/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A18/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H04/03
NCAA
74.9Avg total
38.2Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.935.073.9+3.963%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.332.873.2+7.579%-
Last 30 away (11)36.538.775.2-2.336%-
Last 10 (10)38.236.774.9+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)33.836.470.2-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)29.041.070.0-12.00%-
vs Similar (15)35.735.771.4-0.140%-
vs Weaker (14)43.133.876.9+9.393%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Duke wins
5
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
07/02/26North Carolina v Duke71-68
14/03/25Duke v North Carolina74-71
08/03/25North Carolina v Duke69-82
01/02/25Duke v North Carolina87-70
09/03/24Duke v North Carolina79-84
03/02/24North Carolina v Duke93-84
04/03/23North Carolina v Duke57-62
04/02/23Duke v North Carolina63-57
03/04/22Duke v North Carolina77-81
05/03/22Duke v North Carolina81-94
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/03/26ANC State93-64
28/02/26HVirginia77-51
25/02/26ANotre Dame100-56
21/02/26HMichigan68-63
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
14/02/26HClemson67-54
11/02/26APittsburgh70-54
07/02/26ANorth Carolina68-71
04/02/26HBoston College67-49
31/01/26AVirginia Tech72-58
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/26HClemson67-63
01/03/26HVirginia Tech89-82
24/02/26HLouisville77-74
21/02/26ASyracuse77-64
18/02/26ANC State58-82
14/02/26HPittsburgh79-65
11/02/26AMiami (FL)66-75
07/02/26HDuke71-68
03/02/26HSyracuse87-77
31/01/26AGeorgia Tech91-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW93%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWLWWW92%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %93%94%92%
Points / game83.283.782.4
Allowed / game62.562.163.2
Point differential+20.6+21.6+19.2
Avg total145.7145.7145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+70%72%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW80%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301911
Win %80%100%45%
Points / game80.483.674.9
Allowed / game70.966.678.2
Point differential+9.6+17.0-3.3
Avg total151.3150.3153.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%74%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won88% (8)100% (4)75% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3028293%83.262.5+20.6
2 Virginia3227584%80.069.4+10.6
3 North Carolina3024680%80.470.9+9.6
4 Miami (FL)3124777%82.770.7+12.0
5 Louisville3122971%85.972.5+13.4
6 Clemson3122971%74.566.3+8.2
7 California31211068%77.572.5+5.0
8 Stanford31201165%76.473.0+3.4
9 NC State31191261%83.576.0+7.5
10 SMU Mustangs31191261%85.078.4+6.6
11 Virginia Tech31191261%78.574.2+4.2
12 Florida State31171455%79.977.5+2.4
13 Wake Forest31161552%78.976.9+2.0
14 Syracuse31151648%75.273.9+1.3
15 Notre Dame31131842%74.575.3-0.9
16 Pittsburgh31121939%70.271.3-1.1
17 Boston College31112035%67.470.7-3.3
18 Georgia Tech31112035%73.877.4-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke393776
North Carolina342761
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.