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Duke vs Michigan Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 68-63
35-33 33-30
Position#8
Record24-2
FormWLWWW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game63.2
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Michigan
USA
Position#6
Record25-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game90.6
Allowed / game68.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#79
W
71-56
71
56
+15
A15/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
80-50
80
50
+30
A17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
90-69
90
69
+21
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
83-52
83
52
+31
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
72-58
72
58
+14
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
67-49
67
49
+18
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
68-71
68
71
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
1H
2H
37-30
34-26
35-19
45-31
42-31
48-38
38-28
45-24
40-31
32-27
42-27
25-22
41-29
27-42
35-29
35-25
31-26
36-28
40-24
61-40
134.6Avg total
76.9Scored
57.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)83.063.2146.1+19.892%
Season at home (16)85.162.7147.8+22.494%
Season away (10)79.663.9143.5+15.790%
Last 10 (10)76.957.7134.6+19.290%
Last 5 (5)74.658.4133.0+16.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (1)67.066.0133.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker (29)83.864.5148.3+19.390%
This opponent (Michigan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
W
81-71
81
71
+10
A17/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
86-72
86
72
+14
H21/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H24/01
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
75-72
75
72
+3
H28/01
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
83-71
83
71
+12
A31/01
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
110-69
110
69
+41
H05/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
82-61
82
61
+21
A08/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
87-75
87
75
+12
A12/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
86-56
86
56
+30
H14/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
91-80
91
80
+11
A17/02
NCAA
1H
2H
40-41
41-30
40-29
46-43
33-30
41-32
48-50
27-22
42-26
41-45
56-24
54-45
44-34
38-27
35-44
52-31
40-38
46-18
48-32
43-48
154.4Avg total
85.5Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)90.668.8159.4+21.896%
Season at home (16)94.166.8160.9+27.494%
Season away (10)85.072.0157.0+13.0100%
Last 10 (10)85.568.9154.4+16.6100%
Last 5 (5)91.268.2159.4+23.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)66.571.5138.0-5.050%
vs Similar ◀ (3)83.764.3148.0+19.3100%
vs Weaker (25)90.269.1159.3+21.196%
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: +10.7+10.71st half: +7.8+7.82nd half2nd half: +8.5+8.52nd half: +8.8+8.8
-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: +10.7+10.71st half: +7.8+7.82nd half2nd half: +8.5+8.52nd half: +8.8+8.8
DukeMichigan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#79
W
37-30
37
30
+7
A15/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
35-19
35
19
+16
A17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
65.5Avg total
38.1Scored
27.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.231.372.4+9.983%-
Last 30 at home (20)42.330.672.9+11.790%-
Last 30 away (10)38.932.671.5+6.370%-
Last 10 (10)38.127.465.5+10.7100%-
Last 5 (5)37.827.064.8+10.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (1)36.024.060.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker (29)41.331.572.9+9.883%-
This opponent (Michigan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A17/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H21/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H24/01
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H28/01
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
42-26
42
26
+16
A31/01
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
56-24
56
24
+32
H05/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A08/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A12/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H14/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A17/02
NCAA
77.4Avg total
42.6Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.132.976.9+11.273%-
Last 30 at home (18)46.331.377.6+15.089%-
Last 30 away (12)40.835.276.0+5.550%-
Last 10 (10)42.634.877.4+7.870%-
Last 5 (5)44.634.479.0+10.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)35.028.563.5+6.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)36.330.366.7+6.033%-
vs Weaker (25)45.733.579.2+12.280%-
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Duke wins
0
Michigan wins
No previous meetings.
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
14/02/26HClemson67-54
11/02/26APittsburgh70-54
07/02/26ANorth Carolina68-71
04/02/26HBoston College67-49
31/01/26AVirginia Tech72-58
27/01/26HLouisville83-52
24/01/26HWake Forest90-69
17/01/26AStanford80-50
15/01/26ACalifornia71-56
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/02/26APurdue91-80
14/02/26HUCLA86-56
12/02/26ANorthwestern87-75
08/02/26AOhio State82-61
05/02/26HPenn State110-69
31/01/26AMichigan State83-71
28/01/26HNebraska75-72
24/01/26HOhio State74-62
21/01/26HIndiana86-72
17/01/26AOregon81-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW92%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWWWLW90%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261610
Win %92%94%90%
Points / game83.085.179.6
Allowed / game63.262.763.9
Point differential+19.8+22.4+15.7
Avg total146.1147.8143.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+69%75%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Michigan
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW96%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261610
Win %96%94%100%
Points / game90.694.185.0
Allowed / game68.866.872.0
Point differential+21.8+27.4+13.0
Avg total159.4160.9157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+81%81%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)67% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %4%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2624292%83.063.2+19.8
2 Virginia2824486%81.069.4+11.7
3 Miami (FL)2721678%82.970.5+12.4
4 North Carolina2721678%80.770.6+10.1
5 Louisville2720774%86.871.8+15.0
6 Clemson2820871%74.565.6+8.9
7 NC State2719870%84.973.8+11.1
8 SMU Mustangs2719870%86.877.6+9.3
9 California2719870%78.772.7+6.0
10 Virginia Tech28181064%78.874.0+4.8
11 Stanford27161159%75.172.5+2.6
12 Syracuse28151354%75.673.4+2.2
13 Florida State27141352%80.077.7+2.3
14 Wake Forest27141352%79.377.2+2.1
15 Notre Dame27121544%74.473.4+1.0
16 Georgia Tech28111739%74.177.3-3.2
17 Pittsburgh27101737%70.071.6-1.6
18 Boston College2791833%67.770.6-2.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan2625196%90.668.8+21.8
2 Nebraska2723485%78.665.6+13.1
3 Illinois2722581%84.868.1+16.7
4 Purdue2722581%82.969.3+13.7
5 Michigan State2621581%78.966.4+12.5
6 Iowa2619773%76.264.4+11.8
7 Wisconsin2618869%83.176.0+7.1
8 USC2718967%80.376.6+3.7
9 Ohio State2617965%81.273.4+7.8
10 UCLA2617965%77.270.9+6.3
11 Indiana27171063%79.772.1+7.6
12 Washington27131448%76.272.1+4.1
13 Minnesota27131448%70.967.7+3.2
14 Northwestern27111641%74.173.0+1.1
15 Rutgers27111641%70.275.7-5.4
16 Maryland27111641%71.277.5-6.3
17 Penn State28111739%74.979.5-4.6
18 Oregon27101737%71.174.2-3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke353368
Michigan333063
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