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Michigan vs Penn State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 110-69
56-24 54-45
Position#6
Record20-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game90.5
Allowed / game68.9
Michigan 🏆
USA
vs
Penn State
USA
Position#298
Record10-12
FormLLLLW
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game78.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Michigan v Penn State
05 Feb 2026
MICH110
PENN69
27 Jan 2025
MICH76
PENN72
04 Jan 2023
MICH79
PENN69
13 Dec 2020
MICH62
PENN58
22 Jan 2020
MICH63
PENN72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penn State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
McNeese State
#15
W
112-71
112
71
+41
H30/12
NCAA
USC
#153
W
96-66
96
66
+30
H03/01
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A07/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
88-91
88
91
-3
H10/01
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
82-72
82
72
+10
A15/01
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
81-71
81
71
+10
A17/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
86-72
86
72
+14
H21/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H24/01
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
75-72
75
72
+3
H28/01
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
83-71
83
71
+12
A31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
60-29
52-42
49-31
47-35
40-31
34-41
38-37
50-54
39-30
43-42
40-41
41-30
40-29
46-43
33-30
41-32
48-50
27-22
42-26
41-45
157.1Avg total
85.1Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)90.568.9159.4+21.695%
Season at home (14)93.667.4160.9+26.293%
Season away (7)84.372.0156.3+12.3100%
Last 10 (10)85.172.0157.1+13.190%
Last 5 (5)79.869.6149.4+10.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)68.274.6142.8-6.440%
vs Similar (5)82.070.8152.8+11.280%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)90.069.3159.2+20.795%
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Penn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
90-67
90
67
+23
H29/12
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
65-73
65
73
-8
H04/01
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
72-74
72
74
-2
H07/01
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
85-93
85
93
-8
A10/01
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
60-71
60
71
-11
H15/01
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
73-96
73
96
-23
A18/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
71-98
71
98
-27
H23/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A27/01
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
73-94
73
94
-21
A30/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
W
77-75
77
75
+2
H01/02
NCAA
1H
2H
36-33
54-34
26-40
39-33
31-40
41-34
44-45
41-48
23-29
37-42
26-56
47-40
22-50
49-48
32-50
46-34
40-45
33-49
41-31
36-44
156.9Avg total
74.4Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)76.578.4154.8-1.945%
Season at home (16)75.975.1150.9+0.856%
Season away (6)78.087.2165.2-9.217%
Last 10 (10)74.482.5156.9-8.120%
Last 5 (5)74.489.4163.8-15.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)75.078.0153.0-3.040%
vs Similar (7)79.077.1156.1+1.957%
vs Weaker (3)69.775.7145.3-6.033%
This opponent (Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.5+9.51st half: -9.8-9.82nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +1.7+1.7
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.5+9.51st half: -9.8-9.82nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +1.7+1.7
MichiganPenn State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
McNeese State
#15
W
60-29
60
29
+31
H30/12
NCAA
USC
#153
W
49-31
49
31
+18
H03/01
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A07/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H10/01
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A15/01
NCAA
Oregon
#293
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A17/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H21/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H24/01
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H28/01
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
42-26
42
26
+16
A31/01
NCAA
76.3Avg total
42.9Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.933.375.2+8.667%-
Last 30 at home (19)43.631.675.3+12.079%-
Last 30 away (11)38.936.175.0+2.845%-
Last 10 (10)42.933.476.3+9.580%-
Last 5 (5)40.635.275.8+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)31.634.866.4-3.240%-
vs Similar (5)35.831.667.4+4.240%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)46.033.379.3+12.780%-
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Penn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H29/12
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
26-40
26
40
-14
H04/01
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H07/01
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A10/01
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
23-29
23
29
-6
H15/01
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
26-56
26
56
-30
A18/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
22-50
22
50
-28
H23/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
32-50
32
50
-18
A27/01
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A30/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H01/02
NCAA
74.0Avg total
32.1Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.437.172.5-1.747%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.334.370.6+1.958%-
Last 30 away (11)33.942.075.9-8.127%-
Last 10 (10)32.141.974.0-9.820%-
Last 5 (5)32.246.478.6-14.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)35.337.472.7-2.140%-
vs Similar (7)37.038.075.0-1.057%-
vs Weaker (3)32.333.365.7-1.067%-
This opponent (Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Michigan wins
4
Penn State wins
DateGameScore
07/01/26Penn State v Michigan72-74
27/01/25Michigan v Penn State76-72
14/03/24Penn State v Michigan66-57
07/01/24Penn State v Michigan79-73
29/01/23Penn State v Michigan83-61
05/01/23Michigan v Penn State79-69
09/02/22Penn State v Michigan57-58
13/12/20Michigan v Penn State62-58
23/01/20Michigan v Penn State63-72
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26AMichigan State83-71
28/01/26HNebraska75-72
24/01/26HOhio State74-62
21/01/26HIndiana86-72
17/01/26AOregon81-71
15/01/26AWashington82-72
10/01/26HWisconsin88-91
07/01/26APenn State74-72
03/01/26HUSC96-66
30/12/25HMcNeese State112-71
Penn Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/02/26HMinnesota77-75
30/01/26ANorthwestern73-94
27/01/26AOhio State78-84
23/01/26HWisconsin71-98
18/01/26AMaryland73-96
15/01/26HUCLA60-71
10/01/26APurdue85-93
07/01/26HMichigan72-74
04/01/26HIllinois65-73
29/12/25HN. Carolina Central90-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW95%
HomeWLWWW93%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21147
Win %95%93%100%
Points / game90.593.684.3
Allowed / game68.967.472.0
Point differential+21.6+26.2+12.3
Avg total159.4160.9156.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+76%79%71%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)67% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %5%7%0%
Penn State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW45%
HomeLLLLW56%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22166
Win %45%56%17%
Points / game76.575.978.0
Allowed / game78.475.187.2
Point differential-1.9+0.8-9.2
Avg total154.8150.9165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%25%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (4)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan2120195%90.568.9+21.6
2 Nebraska2220291%80.066.0+14.0
3 Illinois2320387%84.667.2+17.4
4 Michigan State2319483%78.964.9+14.0
5 Purdue2218482%83.669.0+14.7
6 Iowa2217577%78.263.5+14.7
7 USC2317674%81.475.3+6.1
8 Wisconsin2216673%83.275.0+8.2
9 UCLA2316770%78.969.7+9.2
10 Ohio State2114767%82.273.5+8.7
11 Indiana2315865%81.271.0+10.2
12 Washington23121152%78.173.3+4.8
13 Minnesota23111248%72.069.0+3.0
14 Penn State22101245%76.578.4-1.9
15 Northwestern23101343%75.272.5+2.7
16 Rutgers2391439%70.276.3-6.1
17 Maryland2181338%72.579.7-7.2
18 Oregon2281436%72.074.5-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan5654110
Penn State244569
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