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Duke vs Siu Edwardsville Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 86-59
Projected total 144.7
Final 90-47
43-20 47-27
Position#87
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game60.3
Duke 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ DUKE 98%■ SIU 2%
Pythia win probability
Siu Edwardsville
USA
Position#256
Record2-2
FormLWWLL
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game68.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Duke faces Siu Edwardsville in the NCAA on 13 November 2026, with the model favouring Duke at 98% because of their 2-1 record, 90.0 points per game and 60.3 allowed, placing them 122nd, while Siu Edwardsville sits 209th with a 2-2 record, 77.8 points per game and 68.5 allowed; Duke's home form mirrors their overall, 2-1, with a 90.0 average, and they have won three of their last five, including a 113-52 rout of Coastal Carolina, a 84-50 win over Army and a 73-79 loss to Michigan State; Siu Edwardsville's road record is 0-2, 67.5 points per game and 87.0 allowed, and they have won two of their last five, highlighted by a 85-61 home victory over Concordia Illinois and losses to Missouri and Lipscomb; the teams have not met before; the projected score is 86-59, with a total of 144.7, and the line is 147.5 with a 43% chance of the over, while the probability of Duke covering the spread is 98%; the game is projected to finish in regulation.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
98.5%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Siu Edwardsville winLost
1.5%fair 64.73
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
W
80-79
80
79
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
71-65
71
65
+6
H19/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H21/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
W
80-75
80
75
+5
H27/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
72-73
72
73
-1
H29/03
NCAA
Army
#201
W
84-50
84
50
+34
H02/11
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#230
W
113-52
113
52
+61
H06/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
73-79
73
79
-6
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-44
37-35
41-22
32-39
38-36
36-34
32-43
39-22
38-34
43-24
39-40
41-35
44-29
28-44
33-18
51-32
54-18
59-34
25-34
48-45
146.3Avg total
80.1Scored
66.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)90.060.3150.3+29.767%
Season at home (3)90.060.3150.3+29.767%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.166.2146.3+13.980%
Last 5 (5)84.465.8150.2+18.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)68.063.0131.0+5.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)80.764.4145.0+16.386%
This opponent (Siu Edwardsville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Siu EdwardsvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Martin
#72
L
76-81
76
81
-5
H14/02
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
L
52-62
52
62
-10
A20/02
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
53-80
53
80
-27
A21/02
NCAA
Western Illinois
#366
W
67-47
67
47
+20
H27/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
77-50
77
50
+27
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
L
71-77 OT
71
77
-6
H05/03
NCAA
Eureka
#491
W
91-39
91
39
+52
H03/11
NCAA
Concordia Illinois
#390
W
85-61
85
61
+24
H05/11
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
L
77-78
77
78
-1
A07/11
NCAA
Missouri
#145
L
58-96
58
96
-38
A10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-44
44-37
28-26
24-36
26-40
27-40
30-23
37-24
35-26
42-24
31-40
34-25
41-17
50-22
35-34
50-27
35-46
42-32
24-48
34-48
137.8Avg total
70.7Scored
67.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)77.868.5146.2+9.250%
Season at home (2)88.050.0138.0+38.0100%
Season away (2)67.587.0154.5-19.50%
Last 10 (10)70.767.1137.8+3.640%
Last 5 (5)76.470.2146.6+6.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)58.096.0154.0-38.00%
vs Similar (9)69.468.3137.8+1.156%
vs Weaker (17)69.863.2133.0+6.659%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143.5Actual: Under 143.5
Over 143.5
53.0%
@ 1.45-10.9pp
Under 143.5
47.0%
@ 2.60+10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.55
Over/Under 148.5 · main lineActual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
40.7%
@ 1.92-9.0pp
Under 148.5
59.3%
@ 1.93+9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
29.2%
@ 2.60-7.9pp
Under 153.5
70.8%
@ 1.50+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Duke total 91.5Actual: Duke under 91.5
Over 91.5
27.4%
@ 1.31-41.6pp
Under 91.5
72.6%
@ 2.92+41.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Under
Betano
2.92
Duke total 95.5 · main lineActual: Duke under 95.5
Over 95.5
15.8%
@ 1.85-35.7pp
Under 95.5
84.2%
@ 2.07+35.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Duke total 99.5Actual: Duke under 99.5
Over 99.5
8.0%
@ 2.25-32.3pp
Under 99.5
92.0%
@ 1.52+32.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.52
Siu Edwardsville total 48.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville under 48.5
Over 48.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under 48.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.55
Siu Edwardsville total 52.5 · main lineActual: Siu Edwardsville under 52.5
Over 52.5
74.9%
@ 1.93+25.1pp
Under 52.5
25.1%
@ 1.85-25.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.78
Siu Edwardsville total 56.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville under 56.5
Over 56.5
60.5%
@ 2.82+28.5pp
Under 56.5
39.5%
@ 1.33-28.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Under
Betano
1.33

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Duke -47.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville +47.5
DUKE -47.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
SIU +47.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Betano
2.25
SIU
Betano
1.55
Spread Duke -44.5 · main lineActual: Siu Edwardsville +44.5
DUKE -44.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
SIU +44.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
SIU
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Duke -41.5Actual: Duke -41.5
DUKE -41.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
SIU +41.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Betano
1.50
SIU
Betano
2.37

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +6.9+6.91st half: -2.7-2.72nd half2nd half: +7.0+7.02nd half: +6.9+6.9
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +6.9+6.91st half: -2.7-2.72nd half2nd half: +7.0+7.02nd half: +6.9+6.9
DukeSiu Edwardsville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H19/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H21/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H27/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H29/03
NCAA
Army
#201
W
33-18
33
18
+15
H02/11
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#230
W
54-18
54
18
+36
H06/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
25-34
25
34
-9
H11/11
NCAA
70.5Avg total
38.7Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71
Last 30 (30)39.731.371.0+8.377%53%
Last 30 at home (21)39.131.570.6+7.676%57%
Last 30 away (9)41.031.072.0+10.078%44%
Last 10 (10)38.731.870.5+6.960%70%
Last 5 (5)39.027.866.8+11.260%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)35.033.068.0+2.0100%0%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)39.831.371.1+8.676%55%
This opponent (Siu Edwardsville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Siu EdwardsvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Martin
#72
L
32-44
32
44
-12
H14/02
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A20/02
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A21/02
NCAA
Western Illinois
#366
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H27/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H05/03
NCAA
Eureka
#491
W
41-17
41
17
+24
H03/11
NCAA
Concordia Illinois
#390
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H05/11
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
L
35-46
35
46
-11
A07/11
NCAA
Missouri
#145
L
24-48
24
48
-24
A10/11
NCAA
66.1Avg total
31.7Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71
Last 30 (30)32.531.363.8+1.253%20%
Last 30 at home (17)34.030.764.7+3.365%18%
Last 30 away (13)30.532.162.5-1.638%23%
Last 10 (10)31.734.466.1-2.750%30%
Last 5 (5)33.237.070.2-3.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)24.048.072.0-24.00%100%
vs Similar (9)33.736.470.1-2.822%44%
vs Weaker (17)31.128.659.6+2.565%6%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Duke -25 · main lineActual: Siu Edwardsville +25
DUKE -25
no forecast
@ 1.87
SIU +25
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 71 · main lineActual: Under 71
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Duke 1st half total 48 · main lineActual: Duke under 48
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Siu Edwardsville 1st half total 22.5 · main lineActual: Siu Edwardsville under 22.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Duke -26Actual: Siu Edwardsville +26
DUKE -26
no forecast
@ 1.87
SIU +26
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Duke -23.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville +23.5
DUKE -23.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
SIU +23.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Duke -27.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville +27.5
DUKE -27.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
SIU +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Duke -22.5Actual: Duke -22.5
DUKE -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
SIU +22.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Spread Duke -28.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville +28.5
DUKE -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
SIU +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Duke -21.5Actual: Duke -21.5
DUKE -21.5
no forecast
@ 1.34
SIU +21.5
no forecast
@ 2.95
1st half Spread Duke -29.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville +29.5
DUKE -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
SIU +29.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Duke -30.5Actual: Siu Edwardsville +30.5
DUKE -30.5
no forecast
@ 2.90
SIU +30.5
no forecast
@ 1.35

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
DUKE win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
SIU win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
🔒 2 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Duke under 92.575.9%2.65
Betano
2.65		----+41.8ppWon
Duke under 91.572.6%2.92
Betano
2.92		----+41.6ppWon
Duke under 93.578.9%2.40
Betano
2.40		----+41.2ppWon
Duke under 94.581.7%2.20
Betano
2.20		----+40.7ppWon
Duke under 96.586.5%1.88
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83		+39.3ppWon
Duke under 9788.3%1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		---+38.1ppWon
Duke under 97.588.6%1.82
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.78		--+37.9ppWon
Duke under 98.590.4%1.68
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.62		---+36.4ppWon
Duke under 9686.2%1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82		---+35.8ppWon
Duke under 95.584.2%1.94
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85		--+35.7ppWon
Duke under 99.592.0%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+32.3ppWon
Siu Edwardsville over 51.578.0%1.84
Pinnacle
2.01
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80		+31.1ppLost
Siu Edwardsville over 53.571.6%2.07
Betano
2.07		----+28.0ppLost
Siu Edwardsville over 5277.3%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85		---+27.7ppLost
Siu Edwardsville over 52.574.9%1.88
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85		--+25.1ppLost
Under 153.570.8%1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45		---+7.9ppWon
Under 15370.1%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+7.6ppWon
Under 15472.3%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+7.3ppWon
Under 154.572.9%1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38		---+7.3ppWon
Under 155.574.9%1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.34		---+7.0ppWon
Under 15574.4%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+6.8ppWon
Under 15676.4%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+5.9ppWon
Under 156.576.8%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+5.4ppWon
Duke over 77.579.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----13.0ppWon
Duke over 79.573.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----17.7ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Duke wins
0
Siu Edwardsville wins
No previous meetings.
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HMichigan State73-79
06/11/26HCoastal Carolina113-52
02/11/26HArmy84-50
29/03/26HUconn72-73
27/03/26HSt. John's (N.Y.)80-75
21/03/26HTCU81-58
19/03/26HSiena71-65
15/03/26HVirginia74-70
14/03/26HClemson73-61
12/03/26HFlorida State80-79
Siu Edwardsvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26AMissouri58-96
07/11/26ALipscomb77-78
05/11/26HConcordia Illinois85-61
03/11/26HEureka91-39
05/03/26HEastern Illinois71-77 OT
28/02/26HEastern Illinois77-50
27/02/26HWestern Illinois67-47
21/02/26ATennessee State53-80
20/02/26ATennessee Tech52-62
14/02/26HUT Martin76-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWWL67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game90.090.0-
Allowed / game60.360.3-
Point differential+29.7+29.7-
Avg total150.3150.3-
Over 148.567%67%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Siu Edwardsville
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLL50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game77.888.067.5
Allowed / game68.550.087.0
Point differential+9.2+38.0-19.5
Avg total146.2138.0154.5
Over 148.550%0%100%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 Virginia440100%93.066.2+26.8
3 SMU Mustangs330100%92.768.3+24.3
4 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
5 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
6 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
7 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
8 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
9 Georgia Tech330100%85.069.7+15.3
10 Stanford330100%82.067.0+15.0
11 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
12 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
13 California43175%87.575.2+12.2
14 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
15 Duke32167%90.060.3+29.7
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Wake Forest32167%72.066.7+5.3
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Ohio Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tennessee State42250%98.077.8+20.2
2 Lindenwood42250%88.570.5+18.0
3 UT Martin42250%85.074.2+10.8
4 Siu Edwardsville42250%77.868.5+9.2
5 Southeast Missouri State42250%79.877.5+2.2
6 Tennessee Tech42250%92.090.0+2.0
7 Morehead State31233%76.383.3-7.0
8 Southern Indiana41325%78.066.5+11.5
9 Western Illinois41325%74.573.2+1.2
10 Eastern Illinois41325%69.080.0-11.0
11 UALR3030%73.386.3-13.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke434790
Siu Edwardsville202747
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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