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Duke vs Michigan State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 83-66
Projected total 149.3
Final 73-79
25-34 48-45
Position#87
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game51.0
Duke
USA
Vs
93%
■ DUKE 93%■ MICH 7%
Pythia win probability
Michigan State 🏆
USA
Position#28
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game93.5
Allowed / game60.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Duke v Michigan State
10 Nov 2026
DUKE73
MICH79
20 Mar 2022
DUKE85
MICH76
01 Dec 2020
DUKE69
MICH75
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Duke faces Michigan State on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Duke as the clear favourite, rating them 93% to win largely because of their 2-0 season record, 98.5 points per game and only 51.0 points allowed, placing them 8th in the league, while Michigan State also sits 2-0 but averages 93.5 points and concedes 60.0, 32nd in the standings. Duke's two games have both been at home, winning 113-52 and 84-50, and they have a 4-1 record over their last five outings, with a recent loss to Uconn 72-73 at home, whereas Michigan State's two victories came at home against Toledo 91-61 and Quinnipiac 96-59, and they too are 4-1 over five games, having lost 63-67 away to Uconn. In the five meetings between the clubs, Duke has won four, most recently 66-60 on 6 December 2025. Pythia projects a 83-66 score, 149.3 total points, a 93% probability for Duke to win and 7% for Michigan State, with a -6.5 spread that Duke has an 82% chance to cover, an over line of 148.5 with a 52% chance of exceeding it, and a 2% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winLost
92.7%fair 1.08
Best odds1.38
Implied69.5%
Edge+23.2pp
Michigan State winWon
7.3%fair 13.61
Best odds3.25
Implied30.5%
Edge-23.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
80-79
80
79
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
71-65
71
65
+6
H19/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H21/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
W
80-75
80
75
+5
H27/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
72-73
72
73
-1
H29/03
NCAA
Army
#201
W
84-50
84
50
+34
H02/11
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#230
W
113-52
113
52
+61
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-34
37-27
43-44
37-35
41-22
32-39
38-36
36-34
32-43
39-22
38-34
43-24
39-40
41-35
44-29
28-44
33-18
51-32
54-18
59-34
144.8Avg total
80.4Scored
64.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)98.551.0149.5+47.5100%
Season at home (2)98.551.0149.5+47.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.464.4144.8+16.090%
Last 5 (5)86.061.6147.6+24.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)68.063.0131.0+5.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)81.564.2145.7+17.390%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
W
76-74
76
74
+2
A27/02
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A01/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
91-87
91
87
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#243
W
96-59
96
59
+37
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
91-61
91
61
+30
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-39
40-35
45-37
32-27
31-30
60-57
41-42
39-48
33-44
51-44
45-25
47-42
36-31
41-38
27-35
36-32
52-24
44-35
48-25
43-36
155.3Avg total
82.7Scored
72.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)93.560.0153.5+33.5100%
Season at home (2)93.560.0153.5+33.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.772.6155.3+10.170%
Last 5 (5)83.864.6148.4+19.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)74.080.2154.2-6.225%
vs Similar (8)71.567.4138.9+4.162%
vs Weaker (18)84.467.8152.2+16.689%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Over 142.5
Over 142.5
66.0%
@ 1.44+1.9pp
Under 142.5
34.0%
@ 2.57-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 147.5 · main lineActual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
54.1%
@ 1.83+2.1pp
Under 147.5
45.9%
@ 1.98-2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.75
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathon Be
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
41.8%
@ 2.30+1.9pp
Under 152.5
58.2%
@ 1.61-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Under
Marathon Be
1.61
Betano
1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Duke total 73.5Actual: Duke under 73.5
Over 73.5
83.3%
@ 1.40+18.7pp
Under 73.5
16.7%
@ 2.55-18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Duke total 77.5 · main lineActual: Duke under 77.5
Over 77.5
71.3%
@ 1.85+21.3pp
Under 77.5
28.7%
@ 1.85-21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Duke total 81.5Actual: Duke under 81.5
Over 81.5
56.2%
@ 2.55+20.8pp
Under 81.5
43.8%
@ 1.40-20.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Michigan State total 67.5Actual: Michigan State over 67.5
Over 67.5
44.5%
@ 1.44-18.5pp
Under 67.5
55.5%
@ 2.45+18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
Michigan State total 71.5 · main lineActual: Michigan State over 71.5
Over 71.5
29.6%
@ 1.91-18.9pp
Under 71.5
70.4%
@ 1.85+18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.80
Michigan State total 75.5Actual: Michigan State over 75.5
Over 75.5
17.7%
@ 2.67-16.2pp
Under 75.5
82.3%
@ 1.37+16.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.37

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Duke -9.5Actual: Michigan State +9.5
DUKE -9.5
74.2%
@ 2.30+34.3pp
MICH +9.5
25.8%
@ 1.53-34.3pp
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Betano
2.30
MICH
Betano
1.53
Spread Duke -6.5 · main lineActual: Michigan State +6.5
DUKE -6.5
82.1%
@ 2.00+32.1pp
MICH +6.5
17.9%
@ 1.90-32.1pp
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.80
MICH
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Spread Duke -3.5Actual: Michigan State +3.5
DUKE -3.5
88.4%
@ 1.53+28.4pp
MICH +3.5
11.6%
@ 2.30-28.4pp
Best 5 market prices
DUKE
Betano
1.53
MICH
Betano
2.30

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.3+8.31st half: +6.2+6.22nd half2nd half: +7.7+7.72nd half: +3.9+3.9
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.3+8.31st half: +6.2+6.22nd half2nd half: +7.7+7.72nd half: +3.9+3.9
DukeMichigan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H15/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H19/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H21/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H27/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H29/03
NCAA
Army
#201
W
33-18
33
18
+15
H02/11
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#230
W
54-18
54
18
+36
H06/11
NCAA
71.9Avg total
40.1Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71
Last 30 (30)40.431.772.1+8.780%57%
Last 30 at home (21)40.232.072.2+8.281%62%
Last 30 away (9)41.031.072.0+10.078%44%
Last 10 (10)40.131.871.9+8.370%80%
Last 5 (5)41.627.869.4+13.880%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)35.033.068.0+2.0100%0%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)40.631.772.3+9.079%59%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A27/02
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A01/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#243
W
52-24
52
24
+28
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
48-25
48
25
+23
H06/11
NCAA
72.6Avg total
39.4Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71
Last 30 (30)36.932.969.8+4.057%40%
Last 30 at home (19)38.930.869.7+8.174%37%
Last 30 away (11)33.536.570.0-3.127%45%
Last 10 (10)39.433.272.6+6.260%60%
Last 5 (5)41.628.069.6+13.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)34.038.572.5-4.525%50%
vs Similar (8)33.632.666.2+1.038%25%
vs Weaker (18)39.031.870.8+7.272%44%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Michigan State win
DUKE win
no forecast
@ 1.44
MICH win
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half Spread Duke -3 · main lineActual: Michigan State +3
DUKE -3
no forecast
@ 1.84
MICH +3
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 71 · main lineActual: Under 71
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Duke 1st half total 37 · main lineActual: Duke under 37
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Michigan State 1st half total 34 · main linePush
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Duke -4.5Actual: Michigan State +4.5
DUKE -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
MICH +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Duke -1.5Actual: Michigan State +1.5
DUKE -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
MICH +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Spread Duke -5.5Actual: Michigan State +5.5
DUKE -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
MICH +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Under 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Spread Duke -6.5Actual: Michigan State +6.5
DUKE -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
MICH +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Duke -7.5Actual: Michigan State +7.5
DUKE -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
MICH +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Duke +1.5Actual: Michigan State -1.5
DUKE +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.32
MICH -1.5
no forecast
@ 3.05
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Michigan State (regulation)
DUKE
no forecast
@ 1.53
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
MICH
no forecast
@ 2.85

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
DUKE win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
MICH win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: DUKE leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Duke -9.574.2%2.30
Betano
2.30		----+34.3ppLost
Duke -10.571.3%2.50
Betano
2.50		----+34.2ppLost
Duke -781.7%1.95
Marathon Bet
1.95		----+34.1ppLost
Duke -8.577.0%2.12
Betano
2.12		----+33.7ppLost
Duke -7.579.7%2.05
Betano
2.05		----+33.6ppLost
Duke -684.0%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82		----+33.1ppLost
Duke -6.582.1%1.89
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.89
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.80		+32.1ppLost
Duke -5.584.4%1.75
Marathon Bet
1.76
Betano
1.75		---+30.5ppLost
Duke -4.586.5%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+29.8ppLost
Duke -3.588.4%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+28.4ppLost
Duke -2.589.9%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+26.4ppLost
Duke (regulation)91.5%1.38
Betano
1.38
Marathon Bet
1.37		---+26.2ppLost
Duke -1.591.6%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+25.2ppLost
Duke win92.7%1.35
Bet365
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.35
WilliamHill
1.33		+23.2ppLost
Duke +1.593.4%1.29
Betano
1.29		----+21.9ppLost
Duke over 77.571.3%1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		-+21.3ppLost
Duke over 76.574.6%1.72
Betano
1.72		----+20.9ppLost
Duke over 75.577.8%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+20.3ppLost
Duke over 74.580.6%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+20.1ppLost
Duke over 7870.2%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+19.7ppLost
Michigan State under 71.570.4%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.80		--+18.9ppLost
Duke over 73.583.3%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+18.7ppLost
Michigan State under 72.573.7%1.67
Betano
1.67		----+18.4ppLost
Duke over 72.585.7%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+18.0ppWon
Michigan State under 73.576.8%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+17.6ppLost
Michigan State under 74.579.7%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+17.0ppLost
Michigan State under 75.582.3%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+16.2ppLost
Michigan State under 76.584.7%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+15.3ppLost
Overtime: no98.3%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+6.8ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Duke wins
1
Michigan State wins
DateGameScore
06/12/25Michigan State v Duke60-66
15/11/23Michigan State v Duke65-74
20/03/22Duke v Michigan State85-76
02/12/20Duke v Michigan State69-75
04/12/19Michigan State v Duke75-87
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HCoastal Carolina113-52
02/11/26HArmy84-50
29/03/26HUconn72-73
27/03/26HSt. John's (N.Y.)80-75
21/03/26HTCU81-58
19/03/26HSiena71-65
15/03/26HVirginia74-70
14/03/26HClemson73-61
12/03/26HFlorida State80-79
07/03/26HNorth Carolina76-61
Michigan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HToledo91-61
03/11/26HQuinnipiac96-59
28/03/26AUconn63-67
21/03/26HLouisville77-69
19/03/26HNorth Dakota St92-67
14/03/26HUCLA84-88
08/03/26AMichigan80-90
06/03/26HRutgers91-87
01/03/26AIndiana77-64
27/02/26APurdue76-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game98.598.5-
Allowed / game51.051.0-
Point differential+47.5+47.5-
Avg total149.5149.5-
Over 147.550%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Michigan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game93.593.5-
Allowed / game60.060.0-
Point differential+33.5+33.5-
Avg total153.5153.5-
Over 147.5100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke220100%98.551.0+47.5
2 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
3 Virginia Tech220100%92.060.5+31.5
4 Virginia330100%92.368.0+24.3
5 North Carolina220100%94.571.0+23.5
6 Boston College220100%73.552.5+21.0
7 Pittsburgh330100%85.764.7+21.0
8 California330100%95.074.7+20.3
9 SMU Mustangs220100%90.071.0+19.0
10 Notre Dame330100%83.766.0+17.7
11 NC State220100%80.063.5+16.5
12 Georgia Tech220100%85.069.0+16.0
13 Stanford330100%82.067.0+15.0
14 Clemson330100%86.374.0+12.3
15 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
16 Miami (FL)32167%79.761.7+18.0
17 Wake Forest21150%67.068.0-1.0
18 Florida State31233%77.387.0-9.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illinois220100%116.057.5+58.5
2 Michigan State220100%93.560.0+33.5
3 Iowa220100%83.550.5+33.0
4 Rutgers220100%91.059.0+32.0
5 UCLA220100%99.069.0+30.0
6 Nebraska220100%86.561.0+25.5
7 Oregon220100%92.570.0+22.5
8 Indiana330100%88.768.7+20.0
9 USC220100%94.074.5+19.5
10 Northwestern330100%78.760.0+18.7
11 Minnesota330100%74.757.7+17.0
12 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
13 Wisconsin220100%74.066.0+8.0
14 Penn State32167%90.077.3+12.7
15 Ohio State32167%85.377.7+7.7
16 Purdue32167%78.071.3+6.7
17 Maryland21150%85.076.5+8.5
18 Michigan21150%80.576.5+4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke254873
Michigan State344579
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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