PythiaBasketballBETA
FIBA Europe CupRound 7· Sinan Erdem Dome
Esenler Erokspor host Rilski Sportist on 18 November 2026 in the FIBA Europe Cup, and the Pythia model rates the Turkish side as the clear favourite, giving them a 97% chance to win, a reflection of their flawless 6-0 record, 96.3 points scored per game and 71.0 points allowed, and a league position of 2; Rilski Sportist, by contrast, sit 41st with a 1-4 record, 75.8 points per game and 88.8 allowed. At home Esenler have gone 3-0, averaging 105.3 points and conceding 76.3, while Rilski have struggled on the road, 0-2, with 80.5 points scored and 91.0 allowed; Esenler's last five games were 3-2, including a 97-66 win over Gence, a 81-90 loss to Galatasaray, and a 106-70 home victory over Sporting CP, whereas Rilski's last five were also 3-2, highlighted by wins over Sporting CP and Polytechnica and a loss to Kolossos Rhodes. Their only prior meeting ended 94-62 in favour of Esenler on 14 October 2026. Pythia projects a 98-72 score, 169.4 total points, a 1% overtime probability, and a 97% chance that Esenler will cover the spread, with the final game ending 98-72.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 96.3 | 71.0 | 167.3 | +25.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 105.3 | 76.3 | 181.7 | +29.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 87.3 | 65.7 | 153.0 | +21.7 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 89.1 | 78.1 | 167.2 | +11.0 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 85.2 | 76.8 | 162.0 | +8.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 77.8 | 86.8 | 164.5 | -9.0 | 38% |
| vs Similar (9) | 83.1 | 85.1 | 168.2 | -2.0 | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 86.5 | 71.3 | 157.8 | +15.2 | 85% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 75.8 | 88.8 | 164.6 | -13.0 | 20% |
| Season at home (3) | 72.7 | 87.3 | 160.0 | -14.7 | 33% |
| Season away (2) | 80.5 | 91.0 | 171.5 | -10.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 84.9 | 81.1 | 166.0 | +3.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.2 | 77.6 | 161.8 | +6.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 75.8 | 88.8 | 164.6 | -13.0 | 20% |
| vs Similar (4) | 91.8 | 86.2 | 178.0 | +5.5 | 75% |
| vs Weaker (20) | 93.2 | 79.7 | 172.9 | +13.5 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.5 | 39.7 | 82.2 | +2.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 44.7 | 39.2 | 83.9 | +5.5 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 40.6 | 40.1 | 80.6 | +0.5 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 46.7 | 38.0 | 84.7 | +8.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.0 | 35.0 | 77.0 | +7.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 38.6 | 44.1 | 82.8 | -5.5 | 12% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 40.7 | 44.2 | 84.9 | -3.6 | 22% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 46.2 | 33.8 | 79.9 | +12.4 | 69% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 44.4 | 40.7 | 85.1 | +3.7 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 45.9 | 42.4 | 88.4 | +3.5 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 43.0 | 39.2 | 82.2 | +3.8 | 56% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.3 | 38.1 | 80.4 | +4.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.6 | 35.8 | 78.4 | +6.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 37.4 | 42.8 | 80.2 | -5.4 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 47.0 | 40.0 | 87.0 | +7.0 | 75% | - |
| vs Weaker (20) | 45.9 | 39.5 | 85.4 | +6.4 | 65% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 32.4 | 18.5 | 53.4% | 37.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 29.2 | 10.8 | 32.5% | 32.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.8 | 16.0 | 72.8% | 16.0 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 39.1 | 22.2 | 53.4% | 44.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 24.9 | 8.0 | 32.5% | 24.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 24.7 | 18.5 | 72.8% | 18.5 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14/10/26 | Rilski Sportist v Esenler Erokspor | 62-94 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Gence | 97-66 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Galatasaray | 81-90 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Sporting CP | 106-70 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Turk Telekom | 71-89 |
| 28/10/26 | A | Kolossos Rhodes | 71-69 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Trabzonspor | 93-90 |
| 21/10/26 | H | SCM Craiova | 118-96 |
| 19/10/26 | H | Anadolu Efes | 73-70 |
| 14/10/26 | A | Rilski Sportist | 94-62 |
| 10/10/26 | A | Tofas | 87-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Beroe | 82-76 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Sporting CP | 86-76 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Polytechnica | 95-65 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Kolossos Rhodes | 70-92 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Lok. Plovdiv | 88-79 |
| 28/10/26 | A | SCM Craiova | 86-103 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Spartak Pleven | 70-86 |
| 17/10/26 | H | CSKA Sofia | 114-76 |
| 14/10/26 | H | Esenler Erokspor | 62-94 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Yambol | 96-64 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | WWW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 96.3 | 105.3 | 87.3 |
| Allowed / game | 71.0 | 76.3 | 65.7 |
| Point differential | +25.3 | +29.0 | +21.7 |
| Avg total | 167.3 | 181.7 | 153.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 83% | 100% | 67% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLW | 20% |
| Home | LLW | 33% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Points / game | 75.8 | 72.7 | 80.5 |
| Allowed / game | 88.8 | 87.3 | 91.0 |
| Point differential | -13.0 | -14.7 | -10.5 |
| Avg total | 164.6 | 160.0 | 171.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 20% | 0% | 50% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Trier | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 69.7 | +30.3 |
| 2 | Esenler Erokspor | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 96.3 | 71.0 | +25.3 |
| 3 |  Basquet Girona | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 91.3 | 75.0 | +16.3 |
| 4 |  Nancy | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 87.2 | 72.5 | +14.7 |
| 5 | Korfez Basket | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 87.3 | 73.7 | +13.7 |
| 6 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 94.3 | 83.8 | +10.5 |
| 7 |  Mykonos | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 84.0 | 76.3 | +7.7 |
| 8 |  Dziki Warszawa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 87.5 | 80.3 | +7.2 |
| 9 |  Chalon/Saone | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 84.8 | 72.7 | +12.2 |
| 10 |  Kolossos Rhodes | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.7 |
| 11 |  Iraklis | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 87.2 | 76.0 | +11.2 |
| 12 |  VEF Riga | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 95.0 | 84.7 | +10.3 |
| 13 |  Wurzburg | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 84.5 | 75.5 | +9.0 |
| 14 |  Promitheas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 90.0 | 81.8 | +8.2 |
| 15 |  CSM Oradea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 86.3 | 80.3 | +6.0 |
| 16 |  Szczecin | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 86.8 | 81.7 | +5.2 |
| 17 |  Geneva Lions | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 88.2 | 84.0 | +4.2 |
| 18 |  Keravnos | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 80.8 | 76.7 | +4.2 |
| 19 |  Zielona Gora | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 84.5 | 83.2 | +1.3 |
| 20 |  Split | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 81.5 | 80.3 | +1.2 |
| 21 |  Oostende | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 78.3 | 77.8 | +0.5 |
| 22 |  Bakken Bears | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 82.0 | 83.3 | -1.3 |
| 23 |  BC Prievidza | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 90.1 | 83.2 | +6.9 |
| 24 |  Lok. Plovdiv | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 83.3 | 83.5 | -0.2 |
| 25 |  AEK Larnaca | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 79.5 | 80.0 | -0.5 |
| 26 |  Valmiera Glass Via | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 81.0 | 83.3 | -2.3 |
| 27 |  BC Kalev/Cramo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 80.0 | 83.7 | -3.7 |
| 28 |  Sporting CP | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 76.7 | 80.3 | -3.7 |
| 29 |  Trepca | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 77.5 | 81.2 | -3.7 |
| 30 |  Dinamo Bucharest | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 87.8 | 81.6 | +6.1 |
| 31 | Denizli Basket | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 81.5 | 83.5 | -2.0 |
| 32 |  Vienna Basket | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 80.5 | 85.2 | -4.7 |
| 33 |  Levice | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 72.7 | 78.2 | -5.5 |
| 34 |  SCM Craiova | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 88.0 | 96.3 | -8.3 |
| 35 | Nitra Blue Wings | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 78.8 | 88.2 | -9.3 |
| 36 |  Szolnoki Olaj | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 77.5 | 88.3 | -10.8 |
| 37 |  Tartu Ulikool | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 88.0 | 99.7 | -11.7 |
| 38 |  Neftchi IK | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 75.6 | 82.6 | -7.0 |
| 39 |  Parnu | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 71.4 | 79.0 | -7.6 |
| 40 |  Bashkimi | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 73.6 | 83.2 | -9.6 |
| 41 | Rilski Sportist | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 75.8 | 88.8 | -13.0 |
| 42 |  Manchester Basketball | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 75.8 | 90.0 | -14.2 |
| 43 | Gence | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 71.2 | 88.2 | -17.0 |
| 44 |  Opava | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 83.2 | 86.8 | -3.7 |
| 45 |  Absheron Lions | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 83.7 | 95.3 | -11.7 |
| 46 |  Fribourg Olympic | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 73.0 | 87.3 | -14.3 |
| 47 |  MZT Skopje | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 72.0 | 87.2 | -15.2 |
| 48 |  Samobor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 74.0 | 100.5 | -26.5 |
| 49 |  Peja | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 70.5 | 100.5 | -30.0 |
| 50 |  Batumi | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 66.8 | 99.2 | -32.3 |
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