PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Evansville hosts Le Moyne on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Evansville the clear favourite, rating them at 86% to win largely because of their 2-1 record and 75.3 points per game compared with Le Moyne's 1-2 record and 76.0 points per game. Evansville has won both of its home games, posting 79.0 points per game at home and allowing 73.0, while Le Moyne has struggled on the road, losing both road outings and averaging only 59.5 points while conceding 94.5. In the last five games Evansville won two and lost three, with a recent 78-76 home win over Southern Indiana and a 80-70 home win over Indiana-Kokomo, whereas Le Moyne has won only one of its last five, with a 109-39 home victory over Elmira but losses to Creighton and Nebraska away. The two teams have met once before, with the last meeting as recorded. The Pythia model projects a score of 82-70 for Evansville, a total of 152.6 points, and gives Evansville an 86% chance to win, Le Moyne a 14% chance, and a 3% probability of overtime. The final game will hinge on whether Le Moyne can pull off a road win against a strong home side.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 75.3 | 73.0 | 148.3 | +2.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 79.0 | 73.0 | 152.0 | +6.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 73.0 | 141.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 67.7 | 80.3 | 148.0 | -12.6 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.4 | 73.6 | 144.0 | -3.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (28) | 66.2 | 78.0 | 144.2 | -11.8 | 21% |
| vs Similar ◀ (1) | 68.0 | 73.0 | 141.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 76.0 | 76.0 | 152.0 | +0.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 109.0 | 39.0 | 148.0 | +70.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 59.5 | 94.5 | 154.0 | -35.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.8 | 70.9 | 142.7 | +0.9 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 75.0 | 146.6 | -3.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 57.3 | 94.7 | 152.0 | -37.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (20) | 71.5 | 74.5 | 145.9 | -3.0 | 35% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 79.5 | 64.7 | 144.2 | +14.8 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 30.2 | 36.8 | 67.0 | -6.6 | 23% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 30.7 | 37.6 | 68.3 | -6.9 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 29.7 | 35.9 | 65.6 | -6.3 | 27% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.1 | 38.1 | 68.2 | -8.0 | 10% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 29.4 | 35.4 | 64.8 | -6.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (28) | 30.4 | 36.9 | 67.4 | -6.5 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (1) | 20.0 | 27.0 | 47.0 | -7.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.0 | 35.6 | 69.5 | -1.6 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 34.8 | 33.5 | 68.3 | +1.4 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 33.3 | 37.2 | 70.5 | -3.9 | 24% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 32.6 | 36.4 | 69.0 | -3.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 40.4 | 73.4 | -7.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 26.3 | 51.0 | 77.3 | -24.7 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (20) | 33.1 | 34.8 | 67.9 | -1.6 | 25% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 37.3 | 33.0 | 70.3 | +4.3 | 50% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Middle Tenn. St. | 68-73 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Southern Indiana | 78-76 OT |
| 03/11/26 | H | Indiana-Kokomo | 80-70 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Northern Iowa | 59-68 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Southern Illinois | 67-81 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Valparaiso | 80-79 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Belmont | 64-98 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Murray State | 75-88 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Illinois (Chi.) | 46-84 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Southern Illinois | 60-86 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Elmira | 109-39 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Creighton | 55-83 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Nebraska | 64-106 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Stonehill | 71-81 |
| 28/02/26 | A | New Haven Chargers | 59-66 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson | 76-59 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Stonehill | 68-77 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Central Connecticut State | 77-78 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Chicago State | 81-63 |
| 13/02/26 | H | Mercyhurst Lakers | 58-57 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 75.3 | 79.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 73.0 | 73.0 |
| Point differential | +2.3 | +6.0 | -5.0 |
| Avg total | 148.3 | 152.0 | 141.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.0 | 109.0 | 59.5 |
| Allowed / game | 76.0 | 39.0 | 94.5 |
| Point differential | +0.0 | +70.0 | -35.0 |
| Avg total | 152.0 | 148.0 | 154.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Murray State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.5 | +27.5 |
| 2 |  Drake | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 62.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.5 | 64.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 70.0 | +15.0 |
| 5 |  Belmont | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.0 | 62.3 | +11.7 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 | Evansville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 73.0 | +2.3 |
| 8 |  Bradley | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 59.5 | 55.0 | +4.5 |
| 9 |  Northern Iowa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.5 | 87.5 | +0.0 |
| 10 |  Indiana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.7 | 75.3 | -4.7 |
| 11 |  Illinois State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.2 | 75.8 | +5.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Central Connecticut State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 65.5 | 79.0 | -13.5 |
| 2 |  Chicago State | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.0 | 78.8 | -10.8 |
| 3 |  Fairleigh Dickinson | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.2 | 85.0 | -16.8 |
| 4 | Le Moyne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 76.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 |  Stonehill | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 71.3 | -4.0 |
| 6 |  New Haven Chargers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 58.3 | 70.0 | -11.7 |
| 7 |  Wagner | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.2 | 73.2 | -7.0 |
| 8 |  Mercyhurst Lakers | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 61.2 | 70.8 | -9.5 |
| 9 |  LIU Sharks | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.8 | 75.0 | -14.2 |
| 10 |  St. Francis (ILL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 |
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